GLYNNIS HOOD ~ THE BEAVER MANIFESTO ~ 2013

~ TBM ~ The Beaver Manifesto

~ TFT-BSE-I-NA-A-E-INSOAM ~ The Fact That – Beavers Still Exist – In – North America – And – Europe – Is Nothing Short Of A Miracle

~ IMP-AWWBIAWWWATLIS-IATWWCBHIAAA-THADABATC-TBOUAU-‘G’-S ~ In Most Places – A World Without Beavers Is A World Without Water And The Life It Supports – In A Time When Water Consumption By Humans Is At An All-Time High And Droughts Are Becoming All Too Common – The Beaver Offers Us An Undeniably – “Green” – Solution

~ SMSADTTBBAWPWT ~ So Many Species Are Drawn To The Beaver’s Benefits And Would Perish Without Them

~ MOOELWBTB-EDITHOOC-WASPOAWTHTC ~ Much Of Our Ecological Landscape Was Born Through Beavers – Even Deep In The Heart Of Our Cities – We Are Still Part Of A World They Helped To Create

~ B-1900-BW-AE-I-NA ~ By – 1900 – Beavers Were – Almost Extinct – In – North America

~ O-4.7M-BP-AATAHOBB-1769-1868-TFDNITGNOPTDNMTGAWD ~ Over – 4.7 Million – Beaver Pelts – Arrived At The Auction Houses Of Britain Between – 1769 – 1868 – These Figures Do Not Include The Great Numbers Of Pelts That Did Not Make The Grade And Were Discarded

~ ROPCWH-ROB-HBUTREDL ~ Regardless Of Potential Conflicts With Humans – Reintroductions Of Beavers – Have Been Used To Restore Ecologically Damaged Landscapes

~ IMS-IIATT-SSTBAAP-A-MA-APTNUTAWCATCECIB ~ In Many Situations – It Is Also Time To – Stop Seeing The Beaver As A Pest – And – More As – A Pilot To Navigate Us Through A Warming Climate And The Complex Ecological Challenges It Brings

~ TBP-BA-T-F-W-A-ES-DT-DO2002-WI ~ The Benefit Of – Beaver Activity – To – Farmers – Wildlife – And – Ecological Systems – During The – Drought Of 2002 – Were Immeasurable

~ TDB-BAH-A-BAP-HBAMITNAPFC ~ This Dichotomy Between – Beaver As Hero – And – Beaver As Pest – Has Been A Mainstay In The North American Psyche For Centuries

~ B-C-OTTT:T-A-WTC ~ But – Creativity – Often Takes Two Things: Time – And – Willingness To Change

~ TC-‘TITOTTW-W-NN-HBTFR ~ The Comment – “This Is The Only Thing That Works” – When – Nothing New – Had Been Tried For – Years

~ IOBWYLEI ~ Innovation Often Begins When You Least Expect It

~ WWTC-EWW-B-WWITB-W-BW-MLO-LO ~ We Want To Co-Exist With Wildlife – But – We Want It To Be – Well-Behaved Wildlife – Much Like Our – Lawn Ornaments

~ T-SF-HLRTPOT-SAB-OTP-WOMOOCFT-PI-N ~ Today – Synthetic Fabrics – Have Largely Replaced The Products Of The – Silkworm And Beaver – Of The Past – We Obtain Many Of Our Clothes From The – Petrochemical Industry – Now

~ TAOSFB/HCB-A-TT-TAP-TASRI-TI-EW ~ There Are Other Solutions For Beaver/Human Conflicts – But – Again – They Take – Time And Patience – That Are So Rare In – Today’s Instant-Everything World

~ IISAAWTNTSHASABMLABLBIAE ~ It Is Society As A Whole That Needs To See How Animals Such As Beavers Modify Landscapes And Bring Life Back Into Arid Environments

~ WANFASWWCEHTDWMFASD ~ We Are Now Facing A Scenario Where We Could Easily Have To Deal With More Frequent And Severe Droughts

~ ATGD-TRTFWBAFOTFS ~ As The Glaciers Diminish – The Rivers They Feed Will Become A Fraction Of Their Former Size

~ WWNMT-ACOB-TSWITCDTPOARWC-B-ISWBABTKTA ~ We Will Need More Than – A Colony Of Beavers – To Stop What Is To Come During This Period Of A Rapidly Warming Climate – But – It Sure Would Be A Benefit To Keep Them Around

~ BKHTKWA-IIALET-ED-DS-A-TTR-WABDFF ~ Beavers Know How To Keep Water Around – It Is A Lot Easier Than – Excavating Dugouts – Damning Streams – And – Trying To Replicate – What A Beaver Does For Free

~ EITLAGO-TMBE ~ Even If The Laws Are Good Ones – They Must Be Enforced

~ GCWATLTW-B-ITINC-T-PPATFLTET-TAJ-WWI ~ Governments Can Write All The Legislation They Want – But – If There Is No Commitment – To – Providing People At The Field Level To Enforce Them – They Are Just – Words Without Intent

~ CA-NP-FOO-CATR-TOO-L-O-NH-WTT ~ Changing A – National Psyche – From One Of – Complete Access To Resources – To One Of – Limited – Or – No Harvest – Would Take Time

~ B-GW-A-OOWR-PNCF-TC-WW-RTTC-A-TTIT-RTBS ~ But – Global Warming – And – Overexploitation Of Water Resources – Pose New Challenges For – The Commons – Whether We – Rise To These Challenges – And – Turn Tragedy Into Triumph – Remains To Be Seen

~ ANHATWMMS ~ A More Holistic Approach To Wildlife Management Makes Sense

~ TLONAAEEWTB-A-WITEGA-BRTHTPBTTVOOL-WTPACTCAM-TLOTLDU ~ The Landscapes Of North America And Europe Evolved With The Beaver – And – Without It Their Ecology Goes Awry – Beavers Represent The Heart That Pumps Blood Through The Veins Of Our Landscape – Without The Ponds And Channels They Create And Maintain – The Lifeblood Of The Land Dries Up

~ DCOOOROAGS-WSSOWIEARTWP ~ Despite Centuries Of Overexploitation Of Resources On A Global Scale – We Still Stumble Our Way Into Ecosystems And Remove The Working Parts

~ TBHSTTUASABAPMOOEC ~ The Beaver Has Something To Teach Us About Survival And Becoming A Productive Member Of Our Ecological Community

~ WWSAPIASPC-WRCIWTLTWCTMAETMAPPBTI ~ When We See A Product In A Shiny Plastic Case – We Rarely Connect It With The Land That Was Cleared To Mine And Extract The Minerals And Petroleum Products Behind That Innovation

~ WAIRFTVETOUEWNTS ~ We Are Increasingly Removed From The Very Environment That Offers Us Everything We Need To Survive

~ BDD ~ Beaver Deficit Disorder

~ WWTTTTLFOSDOOOAAWTSOWATRWUIANL ~ Whether We Take The Time To Learn From Other Species Depends On Our Own Adaptability And Willingness To See Our World And The Resources Within Us In A New Light

WILLIAM LOGAN ~ AIR ~ 2012

~ TACBO-ICBC-ICBC-IHNBOB-ICTFOCATDOP ~ The Air Cannot Be Owned – It Cannot Be Controlled – It Cannot Be Contained – It Has No Borders Or Boundaries – It Changes The Fate Of Creatures And The Destiny Of Peoples

~ TAIEMIASG-TINOPWTPTHTLOI-A-P-TINOPAAATHSA ~ The Air In Every Moment Is A Special Gift – There Is No Other Planet Within Twenty Parsecs That Has The Like Of It – And – Perhaps – There Is No Other Place Anywhere At All That Has Such Air

~ TORTTWINAI-TD-ITTFRTTTE-WBTSOFIANADED ~ The Only Reason That The World Is Not Awash In – The Dead – Is That The Fungi Return Them To The Earth – We Breathe The Spores Of Fungi In And Out All Day Every Day

~ T-BF-T-TF-A-TG-GAS-AABO-W-PP ~ The – Boreal Forests – The – Temperate Forests – And – The Great – Grasslands And Savannahs – Are All Based On – Wind-Pollinated Plants

~ ITIE-NBNF-HBTPSO-AC-TDTLAOO-R-P-SETLITUOLAAITLTMOHCD ~ In The Industrial Era – Neither Bacteria Nor Fungi – Have Been The Primary Source Of – Airborne Contaminants – That Damage The Lungs And Other Organs – Rather – Particles – Small Enough To Lodge In The Upper Or Lower Airway And In The Lungs Themselves More Often Have Caused Disease

~ TF-S-PI-A-NTWBAN-A-TS-CDWTTDOOPALAAT-1920~ Toxic Fogs – Smog-Producing Inversions – And – Noondays That Were Black As Night – Alerted – The So-Called Developed World To The Dangers Of Outdoor Pollution As Long Ago As The – 1920s

~ MM-O-GOG ~ Mystery Materials – Often – Give Off Gas

~ T-OBOBF-IRF-AHMATRP ~ The – Open Burning Of Biomass Fuels – Is Responsible For – A Huge Mortality Among The Rural Poor

~ TPTRLITAATTSO ~ The Particles That Remain Longest In The Air Are Typically The Smallest Ones

~ IAD-WAM-TK-TD-TFOT-TOPTBTCW-TAWABIIQ ~ In A Democracy – We Are Meant – To Know – To Debate – To Find Out Together – This Ought Particularity To Be The Case When – The Air We All Breathe Is In Question

~ W-ROS-F-IISJWTCD-R-IIASOWWA-TD-TL-TS-A-TMOTHRFTSOTE-AOTPACBTGN-‘A’-TI-TDIA ~ When – Rain Or Snow – Falls – It Is Seldom Just Water That Comes Down – Rather – It Is A Solution Of Water With All – The Dusts – The Liquids – The Smokes – And – The Microscopic Organisms That Have Risen From The Surface Of The Earth – All Of These Particles Are Called By The General Name – “Aerosols” – That Is – Things Dissolved In Air

~ DOF-EB-RC-A-FC ~ Droplets Of Fat – Emitted By – Restaurant Chimneys – And – Food Carts

~ GT ~ Ground Truth

~ TTOTAOBUWWDNE ~ The Theater Of The Air Often Brings Us What We Do Not Expect

~ B-CA-A-APCORD ~ Black-Carbon Aerosols – Are – A Principal Cause Of Respiratory Disease

~ APWNPGW-ASTFTAWAHBP-TARA-IAPP ~ Aerosol Pollution Will Never Prevent Greenhouse Warming – Although Schemes To Fill The Air With Aerosols Have Been Proposed – They Are Regarded As – Ineffective And Possibly Poisonous

~ WWTTAAAD-JAWHTTD-TITOGDNJGA ~ When We Treat The Air As A Dump – Just As We Have Treated The Dirt – The Invisible Tides Of Garbage Do Not Just Go Away

~ TWIAIP-SASTTCTEART-SCBEBO-SAIFBPTATP-ADOT-PM-O-COGOC-TTA-F-STR-T-EOS-IBFTMCFOCATL-ATKOL ~ The World Is Awash In Perfumes – Some Are Specific To The Creature That Emits And Receives Them – Some Can Be Eavesdropped By Others – Some Are Intentionally Faked By Predators To Attract Their Prey – All Depend On The – Physical Movement – Of – Chemicals Or Group Of Chemicals– Through The Air – From – Sender To Receiver – This – Exchange Of Signals – Is By Far The Most Common Form Of Communication Among The Living – All The Kingdoms Of Life

~ MCMTTTWFCBFSTTFCFIT ~ Many Creatures Mark The TraIl To Where Food Can Be Found So That Their Friends Can Find It Too

~ WEA-COASESA ~ When Enemies Appear – Creatures Of All Sizes Emit Scented Alarms

~ TTOTAOBUWWDNE ~ The Theater Of The Air Often Brings Us What We Do Not Expect

~ ASRTT:BAAL ~ A Song Requires Two Things: Breath And A Listener

~ NCBSWE ~ Nothing Can Be Said Without Exhaling

~ MST-ICIUTTA-B-ITUOOO ~ Music Stops Thought – It Comes Into Us Through The Air – But – It Takes Us Out Of Ourselves

~ BTAPIAH-IYCBT-YCLT ~ Breath Turns A Place Into A Habitat – If You Can Breathe There – You Can Live There

~ BRAE-IRA-IAO-A-IR-GAT-ABOACAAM-IWAI-EIE-W-O-FB-IAO-A-RTTOBTPOIE ~ Breath Requires An Exchange – It Requires An – Inside And Outside – And – It Requires – Give-And-Take – A Breath Of Air Comes Across A Membrane – Interacts With An Inside – Exchanges Its Elements – With – Others – From Both – Inside And Outside – And – Returns To The Outside Bearing The Products Of Its Exchange

~ FTM ~ Fogging The Mirror

~ TAITKOTB ~ The Air Is The Kingdom Of Breath

~ ABC-O-N-CD-AWVOOC-DM-G-B-DS-PH-A-S ~ A Breath Contains – Oxygen – Nitrogen – Carbon Dioxide – A Wide Variety Of Other Compounds – Dust Motes – Pollen Grains – Bacteria – Dead Skin – Plant Hairs – And – Spores

~ TSILBOTA-TTFO-G-D-S-V-SAWMTS ~ The Sky Is Light Because Of The Air – The Thin Film Of – Gases – Dusts – Spores – Vapor – Sun And Weather Make The Sky

DAVID ORRELL ~ METHODS OF DIVINATION ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ A-AC ~ Aeromancy – Atmospheric Conditions

~ A-SAP ~ Astrology – Stars And Planets

~ B-POST ~ Bibilomancy – Passages Of Sacred Texts

~ B-MM ~ Biology – Mathematical Models

~ C-TC ~ Cartomancy – Tarot Cards

~ C-LAT ~ Ceraunoscopy – Lightening And Thunder

~ C-PR ~ Chiromancy – Palm Reading

~ C-D/L ~ Cleromancy – Dice / Lots

~ C-CB ~ Crystallomancy – Crystal Balls

~ E-MM ~ Economics – Mathematical Models

~ G ~ Guessing

~ H-AE ~ Haruspicy – Animal Entrails

~ H-NOH ~ Hippomancy – Neighing Of Horses

~ M-MM ~ Meteorology – Mathematical Models

~ MOTB ~ Molesophy – Moles On The Body

~ N-N ~ Numerology – Numbers

~ O-D ~ Oneiromancy – Dreams

~ O-FOB ~ Ornithomancy – Flight Of Birds

~ SOTH ~ Phrenology – Shape Of The Head

~ SAF ~ Pyromancy – Smoke And Fire

~ T-TL/CG ~ Tasseomancy – Teal Leaves / Coffee Grounds

DAVID ORRELL ~ THE PSYCHOLOGY OF ECONOMICS ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ C-IDPIPATES-IOLATBP ~ Compartmentalizing – Investors Divide Problems Into Parts And Treat Each Separately – Instead Of Looking At The Big Picture

~ TF-EFCCTTFB-B-WTMIGD-PEITSD-A-WIIGU-TSITL ~ Trend Following – Extrapolating From Current Conditions Tends To Fuel Bubbles – Because – When The Market Is Going Down – People Expect It To Stay Down – And – When It Is Going Up – The Sky Is The Limit

~ LA-PTL-PIW-TD-TTD-PIL-TSA ~ Loss Aversion – People Take Less – Pleasure In Winning – Ten Dollars – Than They Do – Pain In Losing – The Same Amount

~ D-IMBEITAAOWTE-TRI-CD ~ Denial – Investors Maintain Beliefs Even If They Are At Odds With The Evidence – This Results In – Cognitive Dissonance

~ S-IAOIBT-OOO ~ Suggestion – Investors Are Overly Influenced By The – Opinions Of Others

~ SQB-ITTAC ~ Status Quo Bias – Investors Tend To Avoid Change

~ IC-ILFPWTDE-TIAC-S ~ Illusory Correlations – Investors Look For Patterns Where They Don’t Exist – This Is Also Called – Superstition

DAVID ORRELL ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ FHAAFACM ~ Forecasting Has Always Attracted Fraudsters And Con Men

~ WABATTFNNRTRP-TCS-I-W/H/W-MBMITTKWHGUT ~ We Are Becoming Aware That The Future Need Not Resemble The Recent Past – The Coming Storms – In – Weather / Health / Wealth – May Be More Intense Than The Kind We Have Grown Used To

~ A-ST-IGCVOIICBUT-PTBOAS-ATTDP-MBABOEI-B-INMF-TAPOMA ~ A – Scientific Theory – Is Generally Considered Valid Only If It Can Be Used To – Predict The Behaviour Of A System – A Theory That Doesn’t Predict – May Be A Beautiful Or Elegant Idea – But – It’s No More Functional – Than A Piece Of Modern Art

~ LT-HPTEP ~ Living Things – Have Properties That Elude Prediction

~ FHALPC-TDT-ETW-ITO-S-C-A-E-R ~ Forecasting Has A Large Psychological Component – The Desire To – Explain The World – In Terms Of – Simple – Cause-And-Effect – Relationships

~ AP-A-OI ~ Accurate Predictions – Are – Often Ignored

~ IA-D-C-W-APCSSBTNAA ~ In A – Dangerous – Chaotic – World – Any Predictions Can Sometimes Seem Better Than None At All

~ TNTSF-OAP0STBAFCOHB ~ The Need To Search For – Order And Pattern – Seems To Be A Fundamental Characteristic Of Human Beings

~ POAR-LTHCOWGW-A-OOTBWTDTITUA-SL

~ Priest Of Any Religion – Like To Have Control Over What Gets Written – And – One Of The Best Ways To Do This Is To Use A – Specialized Language

~ TAMWTDACLTASO ~ There Are More Ways To Draw A Crooked Line Than A Straight One

~ TMRWTGFFASP-IS-TST-IHA-MA ~ The Most Reliable Way To Get Funding For A – Scientific Project – Is Still – To Show That – It Has A – Military Application

~ TPIT-TFNDQCTP ~ The Problem Is That – The Future Never Does Quite Copy The Past

~ IIIT-M-NBCW-FR-R ~ It Is Important That – Models – Not Be Confused With – Far Richer – Reality

~ MDABCDNNH-AMDOGDR-BTNOUPE ~ More Data And Bigger Computers Do Not Necessarily Help – Adding More Detail Often Gives Diminishing Returns – Because The Number Of Unknown Parameters Explodes

~ WCMT-TOAL-TWWCT-AOAPATS ~ We Cannot Model The – Trajectory Of A Life – The Way We Can The – Arc Of A Planet Across The Sky

~ PMASEORAA ~ Perhaps Markets Aren’t So Efficient Or Rational After All

~ PINAGP-A-CSM-WT-CAOUE-O-AABC-A-U ~ Pollution Is Now A Global Problem – And – Chemically Synthesized Molecules – With Their – Complex And Often Unknown Effects – On – Atmospheric And Biological Chemistry – Are – Ubiquitous

~ WANST-TIC-OG-O-TEM ~ We Are Not Slaves To – The Initial Condition – Our Genes – Or – The Efficient Market

~ COEFASOU ~ Creativity Often Emerges From A State Of Uncertainty

MICHIKO KAKUTANI ~ THE DEATH OF TRUTH ~ 2018

~ DFF/DORBE/TCOL-A-DTVVOT ~ Disregard For Facts / Displacement Of Reason By Emotion / The Corrosion Of Language – Are – Diminishing The Very Value Of Truth

~ SIUA-ASI-EOES ~ Science Is Under Attack – And So Is – Expertise Of Every Sort

~ AW-E-R-IQ-TWS-OW ~ And When – Experts – Raised – Inconvenient Questions – They Were Sidelined – Or Worse

~ TC-OOL ~ The Co-Opting Of Language

~ AHMOU-A-SE-A-U-B-TMBJBTIBTSOOV ~ A Huge Majority Of Us – Assume – Search Engines – Are – Unbiased – But – That May Be Just Because They’re Increasingly Biased To Share Our Own Views

~ SM-GUITTCOVOTW-PLI-IN-C-S-A-CS-WGOT ~ Social Media – Gives Us Information That Tends To Confirm Our View Of The World – People Live In – Increasingly Narrow – Content – Silos – And – Correspondingly Smaller – Walled Gardens Of Thought

~ MAD-I-B-TG-TT-OPATW ~ Misinformation And Disinformation – Is – Becoming – The – Go-To Tactic – Of Propagandists Around The World

~ TSOTT ~ The Schadenfreude Of The Trolls

~ WT-T-B-T-F-B-PLPFTCO2008-MWPWSTTMULG ~ While The – Too-Big-To-Fail – Banks – Paid Little Price For The Crash Of 2008 – Many Working People Were Still Trying To Make Up Lost Ground

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ ANTI-CATASTROPHE PRINCIPLE – FOUR QUALIFICATIONS ~ LAWS OF FEAR ~ 2005

~ ATTFROSR-IMNSTTSTACITVSWCCROTO ~ Attentive To The Full Range Of Social Risks – It Makes No Sense To Take Steps To Avert Catastrophe If Those Very Steps Would Create Catastrophic Risks Of Their Own

~ ATTIO-C-E-WRRTCTLCMOATE ~ Attentive To The Idea Of – Cost-Effectiveness – Which Requires Regulators To Choose The Least Costly Means Of Achieving Their Ends

~ DCM-AIAWTREBOTLATBT ~ Distribution Considerations Matter – Applied In A Way That Reduces Extreme Burdens On Those Least Able To Bear Them

~ CMAS-TEOPCRBDFTE ~ Costs Matter As Such – The Extent Of Precautions Cannot Reasonably Be Divorced From Their Expense

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ LIBERTARIAN PATERNALISM ~ LAWS OF FEAR ~ 2005

~ T-LA-OTSLITSIT-IG-PSBFTOOOSAITCTDS ~ The – Libertarian Aspect – Lies In The Straightforward Insistence That – In General – People Should Be Free To Opt Out Of Specified Arrangements If Hey Choose To Do So

~ T-PA-CITCTIILFPAPITATIPB-EWT-PEAA-ITU-APTCA-‘P’-IIATITCOAPIAWTWMCBO-ISCIMIDITOTOW-DTTWCITH-CI-UCA-A-NLOS-C-H-LP-PTBRTBEAIF ~ The – Paternalistic Aspect – Consists In The Claim That It Is Legitimate For Private And Public Institutions To Attempt To Influence People’s Behavior – Even When Third-Party Effects Are Absent – In This Understanding – A Policy Therefore Counts As – “Paternalistic” – If It Attempts To Influence The Choices Of Affected Parties In A Way That Will Make Choosers Better Off – In Some Cases Individuals Make Inferior Decisions In Terms Of Their Own Welfare – Decisions That They Would Change If They Had – Complete Information – Unlimited Cognitive Abilities – And – No Lack Of Self-Control – Hence – Libertarian Paternalism – Promises To Be Responsive To Both Excessive And Insufficient Fear

~ LP-IAR-WAN-TOP-B-CANBOFO-IIMCF-LP-I-TC-OTWSTDFT-PPO ~ Libertarian Paternalism – Is A Relatively – Weak And Nonintrusive – Type Of Paternalism – Because – Choices Are Not Blocked Or Fenced Off – In Its Most Cautious Forms – Libertarian Paternalism – Imposes – Trivial Costs – On Those Who Seek To Depart From The – Planner’s Preferred Option

~ WAOOT-PTFASBTD-AA-ESC-ITRWT-ITCROATC? ~ Would Any One Object To – Putting The Fruit And Salad Before The Desserts – At An – Elementary School Cafeteria – If The Result Were To – Increase The Consumption Ratio Of Apples To Candy?

~ TPTICSBR-IOBOTCT-PDAEJOMCO-AL-TTDAFBJTTPCPD-B-TILESFTC ~ The Presumption That Individual Choices Should Be Respected – Is Often Based On The Claim That – People Do An Excellent Job Of Making Choices – Or – At Least – That They Do A Far Better Job Than Third Parties Could Possibly Do – But – There Is Little Empirical Support For This Claim

~ DR-OSK-A-I-A-MOTTTRWA-PAC=POL-W-FP-A-SP-HICF-BAC ~ Default Rules – Of Some Kind – Are – Inevitable – And – Much Of The Time Those Rules Will Affect – Preferences And Choices – People Often Lack – Well-Formed Preferences – And – Starting Points – Have Important Consequences For – Behavior And Choice

~ I-FP ~ Ill-Formed Preferences

~ I-US-W-FP-AEUTE ~ In – Unfamiliar Situations – Well-Formed Preferences – Are Especially Unlikely To Exist

~ TIOP-TINWTAEOBAC-TTFTCLI-ITMOSE-T-P-FOC-T-PCEAT-PSO ~ The Inevitability Of Paternalism – There Is Not Way To Avoid Effects On Behavior And Choices – The Task For The Committed Libertarian Is – In The Midst Of Such Effects – To – Preserve – Freedom Of Choice – That – People Can Easily Avoid The – Paternalist’s Suggested Option

~ SLA-PI-CBEABTWSTAACOTO-TDEBAAM ~ So Long As – Paternalistic Interventions – Can Be Easily Avoided By Those Who Seek To Adopt A Course Of Their Own – The Dangers Emphasized By Antipaternalist Are Minimal

~ TWMT-SS-A-A-ATEOAS-CP-ALFP-B-IP-SF-S-CP-TIIHLTOPDT ~ Those Who Make The – Slippery Slope – Argument – Are – Acknowledging The Existence Of A Self-Control Problem – At Least For Planners – But – If Planners – Suffer From Self-Control Problems – Then It Is Highly Likely That Other People Do Too

~ TG-SBT-A-R-I-A-O-H-E-A-TPASTILT-PPW-SD ~ The Goal – Should Be To – Avoid – Random – Inadvertent – Arbitrary – Or – Harmful – Effects – And – To Produce A Situation That Is Likely To – Promote People’s Welfare – Suitably Defined

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ LAWS OF FEAR ~ 2005

~ SPAFWTONTB-A-STAFWTSBF-IDN-TLRTPF-AAR-TLCBLIUAEDD ~ Sometimes People Are Fearful When They Ought Not To Be – And – Sometimes They Are Fearless When They Should Be Frightened – In Democratic Nations – The Law Responds To People’s Fears – As A Result – The Law Can Be Led In Unfortunate And Even Dangerous Directions

~ ‘RP’-PALRI-G-C-E-N ~ “Risk Panics” – Play A Large Role In – Groups – Cities – Even – Nations

~ W-FS-MIPFPTAAWAIN-A-UFTTAAWAII ~ Well-Functioning Societies – Make It Possible For People To Achieve Agreement When Agreement Is Necessary – And – Unnecessary For Them To Achieve Agreement When Agreement Is Impossible

~ DD-DBITAFTLQATTOACFPWDO-O-AUA-HTRTQ-ITCOF-IIOPTOJSAC ~ Deliberative Democracies Do Best If They Abstract From The Largest Questions And Try To Obtain A Consensus From People Who Disagree On – Or – Are Unsure About – How To Resolve Those Questions – In The Context Of Fear – It Is Often Possible To Obtain Just Such A Consensus

~ T-PP-TMF-B-IAOT-TAIITRSTSTPAPH-EICCAUAEIWDNKTTHWCTF ~ The – Precautionary Principle – Takes Many Forms – But – In All Of Them – The Animating Idea Is That Regulators Should Take Steps To Protect Against Potential Harms – Even If Causal Chains Are Unclear And Even If We Do Not Know That Those Harms Will Come To Fruition

~ HB-C-A-N-OSOOOAFSRA-‘S’-A-IO ~ Human Beings – Cultures – And – Nations – Often Single Out One Or A Few Social Risks As – “Salient” – And – Ignore The Others

~ T-AH-WPLSK-TCRTBSITCETOIIWTRCTF ~ The – Availability Heuristic – When People Lack Statistical Knowledge – They Consider Risks To Be Significant If They Can Easily Think Of Instances In Which Those Risks Came To Fruition

~ T-PP-MWBRAA-A-CP-DFSCIWIINPTAPTPCR ~ The – Precautionary Principle – Might Well Be Reformulated As An – Anti-Catastrophe Principle – Designed For Special Circumstances In Which It Is Not Possible To Assign Probabilities To Potentially Catastrophic Risks

~ EWEAIE-WC-TTCOAIOTASOTR ~ Especially When Emotions Are Intensely Engaged – Worst Cases – Tend To Crowd Out An Investigation Of The Actual Size Of The Risk

~ ‘LP’-AATSPIDTWPTW-WFTOC ~ “Libertarian Paternalism” – An Approach That Steers People In Directions That Will Promote Their Welfare – Without Foreclosing Their Own Choices

~ EE-ATSPEP-AMBT-‘WTP’ ~ Economic Efficiency – Attempts To Satisfy People’s Existing Preference –As Measured By Their – “Willingness To Pay”

~ HMPITRAOP? ~ How Much Precaution Is The Right Amount Of Precaution?

~ AGDOE-STPT-A-ER-CH-AEOLAH-PPAEVTTE-TBS-BTPATUMAD ~ A Great Deal Of Evidence – Suggests The Possibility That – An – Expensive Regulation – Can Have – Adverse Effects On Life And Health – Poor People Are Especially Vulnerable To This Effect – To Be Sure – Both The Phenomenon And The Underling Mechanism Are Disputed

~ T-AH-W-P-ATMORBAWECRCTM-IPCETOSE-TAFMLTBFTITC-TPI-T-AH-CLTSE-ITOB-EF-A-N ~ The – Availability Heuristic – When – People – Assess The Magnitude Of Risks By Asking Whether Examples Can Readily Come To Mind – If People Can Easily Think Of Such Examples – They Are Far More Likely To Be Frightened Than If They Cannot – The Problem Is – The – Availability Heuristic – Can Lead To Serious Errors – In Terms Of Both – Excessive Fear – And – Neglect

~ PN-B-S-PWALAOPAA-EWSEAI ~ Probability Neglect – But – Sometimes – People Will Attempt Little Assessment Of Probability At All – Especially When Strong Emotions Are Involved

~ LA-PTTB-LA-WMT-ALFT-SQ-ISA-MU-TAGISAD ~ Loss Aversion – People Tend To Be – Loss Averse – Which Means That – A Loss From The – Status Quo – Is Seen As – More Undesirable – Than A Gain Is Seen As Desirable

~ SQB-T-SQ-MTBAWGALAM-A-AL-FT-SQ-SMMBTAGFT-SQ-SG ~ Status Quo Bias – The – Status Quo – Marks The Baseline Against Which Gains And Losses Are Measured – And – A Loss – From The – Status Quo – Seems Much More Bad Than A Gain From The – Status Quo – Seems Good

~ PAFMWTT-FR-T-UO-EITA-SE ~ People Are Far More Willing To Tolerate – Familiar Risks – Than – Unfamiliar Ones – Even If They Are – Statistically Equivalent

~ A-RA-ONA-EH-INASGF-DC-EWABFAECAWAB ~ A – Risk Assessment – Offering Numbers About – Expected Harms – Is Not A Sufficient Ground For – Democratic Choice – Even When Accompanied By Figures About Expected Costs As Well As Benefits

~ WEKARTIO-B-DNPTTAPTE-IISTFT-MP:CTPWT-B-WC-O ~ When Existing Knowledge Allows Regulators To Identify Outcomes – But – Does Not Permit Them To Assign Probabilities To Each – It Is Standard To Follow The – Maximin Principle: Choose The Policy With The – Best – Worst-Case – Outcome

~ SSAR-B-MAN-W-AE-O-AS-I-‘R’-CBDITA-IAC-RIAMOD-EDOTF-T-‘RP’-SBUAAH-OTFIITFOPDTC-LMH-T-RP-WWWIMC-B-ICALTSAEDE ~ Some Systems Are Resilient – But – Many Are Not – Whether – An Ecosystem – Or – A Society – Is – “Resilient” – Cannot Be Decided In The Abstract – In Any Case – Resilience Is A Matter Of Degree – Everything Depends On The Facts – The – “Resilience Principle” – Should Be Understood As A Heuristic – One That Favors Inaction In The Face Of Possibly Damaging Technological Change – Like Most Heuristics – The – Resilience Principle – Will Work Well In Many Circumstances – But – It Can Also Lead To Systematic And Even Deadly Errors

~ ABAWATAWVOAEMCF-I-R-A-EB-ASAWAT-C-RTT-E-TVCLTPFITAR-AETPAFAOTUODSAHTDTDO-I-GM ~ A Better Approach Would Acknowledge That A Wide Variety Of Averse Effects May Come From – Inaction – Regulation – And – Everything Between – A Sensible Approach Would Attempt To – Counteract – Rather Than To – Embody – The Various Cognitive Limitations That People Face In Thinking About Risks – An Effort To Produce A Fair Accounting Of The Universe Of Dangers Should Also Help To Diminish The Dangers Of – Interest-Group Manipulation

~ PA-IIII-IIAH-A-IILTLTAH-‘RE’ ~ Public Alarm – Even If Ill Informed – Is Itself A Harm – And – It Is Likely To Lead To Additional Harms – “Ripple Effects”

~ WTP ~ Willingness To Pay

~ PA-ITVALP-A-IA-MOTT-WTAITDOT-‘S’-O-T-‘U’ ~ People Are – Insensitive To Variations Among Low Probabilities – And – Instead Ask – Much Of The Time – Whether They Are In The Domain Of The – “Safe” – Or – The – “Unsafe”

~ W-CSHTP ~ Worst-Case Scenarios Have Tremendous Power

~ C-S-AAS-ST-SB-O-C-IW-ARAAGE-MRFOPTA-U-C-CLPIMD-WAF-‘EM’-S-SFTDNMR ~ Cascades – Sometimes – Availability And Salience – Spread Through – Social Bandwagons – Or – Cascades – In Which – Apparently Representative Anecdotes And Gripping Examples – Move Rapidly From One Person To Another – Unfortunately – Cascades – Can Lead People In Mistaken Directions – With A Few – “Early Movers” – Spurring – Social Fear That Does Not Match Reality

~ F-IA-W-HEV-A-ELTS ~ Fear-Inducing Accounts – With – High Emotional Valence – Are – Especially Likely To Spread

~ GP-WIOITCO-F ~ Group Polarization – Will Inevitably Occur In The Context Of – Fear

~ B-IAS-MB-FONOTR-A-S-NRD ~ Both – Individuals And Societies – May Be – Fearful Of Nonexistent Or Trivial Risks – And – Simultaneously – Neglect Real Dangers

~ WCF-CRTWPCBA-IMSFTTA-A-CP ~ When Citizens Face – Catastrophic Risks To Which Probabilities Cannot Be Assigned – It Makes Sense For Them To Adopt An – Anti-Catastrophe Principle

~ WTW-CSITC-A-WPCBA-AL-MOS-MAGDOS ~ Where The Worst-Case Scenario Its Truly Catastrophic – And – When Probabilities Cannot Be Assigned – A Large – Margin Of Safety – Makes A Great Deal Of Sense

~ MOS ~ Margins Of Safety

~ IG-IIBTTPATDTTF-WTLOH? ~ In General – Isn’t It Best To Tell People About The Dangers That They Face – Whatever The Likelihood Of Harm?

~ AAOCAB-IAIIIT-AOR ~ An Accounting Of – Costs And Benefits – Is An Important Ingredient In The – Analysis Of Risks

~ W-F-LS-MWPFTITI ~ Well-Functioning – Legal Systems – Make Wrongdoers Pay For The Injuries They Inflict

~ TPE ~ Third Party Effects

~ T-OPS-A-U-W-TBIBLANWS ~ The – Ordinary Political Safeguards – Are – Unreliable – When – The Burdens Imposed By Law Are Not Widely Shared

~ ITCO-TTNS-IIPT-GWIOCLWAJ-HOCE ~ In The Context Of – Threats To National Security – It Is Predictable That – Governments Will Infringe On Civil Liberties Without Adequate Justification – History Offers Countless Examples