CASS SUNSTEIN + REID HASTIE ~ WISER

~ GBGT ~ Getting Beyond GroupThink

~ HMHABTO? ~ How Many Heads Are Better Than One?

~ GT ~ GroupThink

~ HT ~ Happy Talk

~ DURV ~ Deliberation Usually Reduces Variance

~ GDROTFPR-NOSI ~ Good Decisions Rely On The Full Performance Record – Not On Snapshot Impressions

~ EB ~ Egocentric Bias

~ HBAPTUO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Unrealistic Optimism

~ HBAPTO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Overconfidence

~ ECATF-BTOWTALKBTTWTDNAK ~ Earn Credibility And Trust First – By Telling Others What They Already Know Before Telling Them What They Do Not Already Know”

~ TTFOIATDHBM ~ The Time For Optimism Is After The Decision Has Been Made

~ P ~ Priming

~ GTPTC-ATDNAGA ~ Good Team Players Think Critically – And They Do Not Always Get Along

~ IPARWTGIR-TAFMLTRWTAK ~ If People Are Rewarded When Their Group Is Right – They Are Far More Likely To Reveal What They Actually Know

~ IGMFOTOPPRTTOTG-TGIMLTE~ If Group Members Focus On Their Own Personal Prospect Rather Than Those Of The Group – The Group Is More Likely To Err

~ MEDFTGDVCEGP-BTIADBADAAFRODA-ASRIA ~ Many Experiments Do Find That Genuine Dissenting Views Can Enhance Group Performance – But There Is A Difference Between Authentic Dissent And A Formal Requirement Of Devil’s Advocacy – Any Such Requirement Is Artificial

~ CT ~ Contrarian Teams

~ CJT ~ Condorcet Jury Theorem

~ TIAGRTTT-IBBAP-OBIAPP ~ There Is Good Reason To Think That – In Both Business And Politics – Optimistic Bias Is A Pervasive Problem

~ E-BATMWBOTF ~ Expertise – Being Able To Make Winning Bets On The Future

~ IMP-TAPACS-RTMAP-ITPEROTASTLE ~ In Most Professions – Telling A Pleasing And Convincing Story – Rather Than Making Accurate Predictions – Is The Primary Evidence Relied On To Assign Someone The Label Expert

~ TTS-TBR-KAWVCTU-CBMM-ATPFOE ~ Three Thinking Skills – Theory-Based Reasoning – Knowledge About Which Valid Cues To Use – Case-Based Memory-Matching – Are The Primary Forms Of Expertise

~ ARCTPTFW-BTMA-IVR ~ A Reliable Capacity To Predict The Future With – Better-Than-Modest Accuracy – Is Very Rare

~ SHSFOEDE ~ Some Highly Specific Forms Of Expertise Do Exist

~ REWACDBTSAOA ~ Real Experts Will Almost Certainly Do Better Than Statistical Averages Of Amateurs

~ CTEIATI ~ Chasing The Expert Is A Terrible Idea

~ EIAMBGTAISP ~ Evidence Is A Much Better Guide Than An Impressive Self-Presentation

~ IOMSTGOYOI ~ It Often Makes Sense To Go Outside Your Own Institution

~ IYATWW-YMBSAEBWYL ~ If You Ask The Whole World – You Might Be Surprised And Excited By What You Learn

~ WEHCPAABSAT ~ We Exaggerate How Consistent People Are Across Both Situations And Time

~ MOUAALLC-IHWBIDS-TWTWA ~ Most Of Us Are A Lot Less Consistent – In How We Behave In Different Situations – Than We Think We Are

~ FAE ~ Fundamental Attribution Error

~ RTMITET ~ Reading The Mind In The Eyes Test

~ WIMTBATP-NTAWTMCV-BTAVI ~ What It Means To Be A Team Player – Not To Agree With The Majority’s Current View – But To Add Valuable Information

~ LCACTDNP-AER-TEODV ~ Leaders Create A Culture That Does Not Punish – And Even Rewards – The Expression Of Dissident Views

~ WAFIS-GCGALW ~ With A Few Identifiable Steps – Groups Can Get A Lot Wiser

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