~ WAAIP ~ We Are Awash In Predictions

~ TEWWMATOTTBMLCTTWR ~ The Experts Who Were More Accurate Than Others Tended To Be Much Less Confident That They Were Right

~ B-EWATTPFAR ~ But – Experts Who Agree That Their Predictions Failed Are Rare

~ ‘IWAR’ ~ “I Was Almost Right”

~ NMHCWA-NMHSOT-TBWUTMPIFATWIFU ~ No Matter How Clever We Are – No Matter How Sophisticated Our Thinking – The Brain We Use To Make Predictions Is Flawed And The World Is Fundamentally Unpredictable

~ MOWWWLTPWFBU ~ Much Of What We Would Like To Predict Will Forever Be Unpredictable

~ MBF ~ Monkey Bite Factor

~ WLITIA-BOBASA ~ We Live In The Information Age – But Our Brains Are Stone Age

~ WRLB ~ We Really Like Babies

~ WHAHTWR ~ We Have A Hard Time With Randomness

~ GF ~ Gambler’s Fallacy

~ PAPDTSRATEFAOWTOAAI ~ People Are Particularly Disinclined To See Randomness As The Explanation For An Outcome When Their Own Actions Are Involved

~ IOC ~ Illusion Of Control

~ CB ~ Confirmation Bias

~ AC-AR ~ Always Confident – Always Right

~ GT-IVMADTCSE ~ Group Think – Is Very Much A Disease That Can Strike Experts

~ CC ~ Confidence Convinces

~ GT ~ Group Think

~ IIA&I ~ It Is Automatic And Instantaneous

~ AIIIP-CI ~ Accuracy Isn’t Imperative In Politics – Certainty Is

~ Big Calls That Go Bad Should Damage The Reputations Of Those Who Make Them – They Seldom Do

~ BS ~ Breezy Speculation

~ U-U-A-U ~ Unpredictable – Unknowable – And – Uncontrollable

~ ALHIIO ~ A Little Humility Is In Order