PHILIP TETLOCK ~ ISAIAH BERLIN ~ FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS ~ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT ~ 2005

~ ‘TFKMTBTHKOBT’ ~ “The Fox Knows Many Things But The Hedgehog Knows One Big Thing”

~ H-TW-‘KOBT’-AETEROTOBTIND-DBIWTW-‘DNGI’-A-ECCTTAAPPF-ALITLT ~ Hedgehogs – Thinkers Who – “Know One Big Thing” – Aggressively Extend The Explanatory Reach Of That One Big Thing Into New Domains – Display Bristly Impatience With Those Who – “Do Not Get It” – And – Express Considerable Confidence That They Are Already Pretty Proficient Forecasters – At Least In The Long Term

~ F-TW-‘KMST'(TOTT)-ASOGS-SEAPNADEBRAEIF-‘AD’-TRSTDSOI-A-ARDATOFP ~ Foxes – Thinkers Who – “Know Many Small Things” (Tricks Of Their Trade) – Are Skeptical Of Grand Schemes – See Explanation And Prediction Not As Deductive Exercises But Rather As Exercise In Flexible – “Ad Hocery” – That Require Stitching Together Diverse Sources Of Information – And – Are Rather Diffident About Their Own Forecasting Prowess

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