PHILIP TETLOCK ~ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT ~ ISAIAH BERLIN ~ FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS

~ ‘TFKMTBTHKOBT’ ~ “The Fox Knows Many Things But The Hedgehog Knows One Big Thing”

~ H-TW’KOBT’-AETEROTOBTIND-DBIWTW’DNGI’-AECCTTAAPPF-ALITLT ~ Hedgehogs – Thinkers Who “Know One Big Thing” – Aggressively Extend The Explanatory Reach Of That One Big Thing Into New Domains – Display Bristly Impatience With Those Who “Do Not Get It” – And Express Considerable Confidence That They Are Already Pretty Proficient Forecasters – At Least In The Long Term

~ F-TW’KMST'(TOTT)-ASOGS-SEAPNADEBRAEIF’AD’TRSTDSOI-AARDATOFP ~ Foxes – Thinkers Who “Know Many Small Things” (Tricks Of Their Trade) – Are Skeptical Of Grand Schemes – See Explanation And Prediction Not As Deductive Exercises But Rather As Exercise In Flexible “Ad Hocery” That Require Stitching Together Diverse Sources Of Information – And Are Rather Diffident About Their Own Forecasting Prowess

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