PHILIP TETLOCK ~ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT ~ SIX BASIC WAYS IN WHICH FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS DIFFER – FOXES WERE MORE:

~ SODATEAP ~ Skeptical Of Deductive Approaches To Explanation And Prediction

~ DTQTABNDE ~ Disposed To Qualify Tempting Analogies By Noting Disconfirming Evidence

~ RTMEPOTSTSTFWPFLGUBDM ~ Reluctant To Make Extreme Predictions Of The Sort That Start To Flow When Positive Feedback Loops Go Unchecked By Dampening Mechanisms

~ WAHBCUTJTITPTH ~ Worried About Hindsight Bias Causing Us To Judge Those In The Past Too Harshly

~ PTADIVOL ~ Prone To A Detached, Ironic View Of Life

~ MTWTCAOFIITSOP-SATROHAOTRODM ~ Motivated To Weave Together Conflicting Arguments On Foundational Issues In The Study Of Politics – Such As The Role Of Human Agency Or The Rationality Of Decision Making

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