PHILIP TETLOCK + DAN GARDNER ~ SUPERFORECASTING ~ 2015

~ ODTRITFWAEOG ~ Our Desire To Reach Into The Future Will Always Exceed Our Grasp

~ OS ~ Optimistic Skeptic

~ SDTTI-OM-C-C-A-AA-SC-IADF ~ Superforecasting – Demands Thinking That Is – Open-Minded – Careful – Curious – And – Above All – Self-Critical – It Also Demands Focus

~ WWNTBCBFASJITF-SITWGSAB ~ We Will Need To Blend Computer-Based Forecasting And Subjective Judgment In The Future – So It’s Time We Got Serious About Both

~ CCS ~ Cargo Cult Science

~ WYSIATI ~ What You See Is All There Is

~ TKID-DTCBR(ANRTZ)-BBEFBS-SSCRATGOHN ~ The Key Is Doubt – Doubt That Can Be Reduced (Although Never To Zero) – By Better Evidence From Better Studies – Such Scientific Caution Runs Against The Grain Of Human Nature

~ ONIITGOTTFPEAHGSEWCIR ~ Our Natural Inclination Is To Grab On To The First Plausible Explanation And Happily Gather Supportive Evidence Without Checking Its Reliability

~ PR-WTOE-PCEPDITMIVNAID-ISDFAP-ACESII ~ Pattern Recognition – With Training Or Experience – People Can Encode Patterns Deep In Their Memories In Vast Number And Intricate Detail – If Something Doesn’t Fit A Pattern – A Competent Expert Senses It Immediately

~ EPJ ~ Expert Political Judgement

~ HWAWDOWYAA-ATJOMPWKNPALON ~ How Well Aggregation Works Depends On What You Are Aggregating – Aggregating The Judgments Of Many People Who Know Nothing Produces A Lot Of Nothing

~ SOOARGADVORIAS ~ Stepping Outside Ourselves And Really Getting A Different View Of Reality Is A Struggle

~ MTILISAL-IVP-TCMIHTFOWTCUTSAWTL ~ Most Things In Life Involve Skill And Luck – In Varying Proportions – That Complexity Makes It Hard To Figure Out What To Chalk Up To Skill And What To Luck

~ MIABHN ~ Meaning Is A Basic Human Need

~ BP-PCBAI-ACORLCTAANITUTSB ~ Belief Perseverance – People Can Be Astonishingly Intransigent – And Capable Of Rationalizing Like Crazy To Avoid Acknowledging New Information That Upsets Their Settled Beliefs

~ SNOUMOTOF-TUISI ~ Superforecasters Not Only Update More Often Than Other Forecasters – They Update In Smaller Increments

~ BTINMF-JBPWLOC ~ But There Is No Magical Formula – Just Broad Principles With Lots Of Caveats

~ BNAPIS-INTBIP-YNTKWMTLOF-AWBPRAB ~ But Not All Practice Improves Skill – It Needs To Be Informed Practice – You Need To Know Which Mistakes To Look Out For – And Which Best Practices Really Are Best

~ TSANUSOTTITTDEETS ~ The Successful Are Not Usually So Open To The Idea That They Didn’t Entirely Earn Their Success

~ ‘PB’ ~ “Perpetual Beta”

~ SCLTATCUTHOMTPTS-SHOAHAI ~ Success Can Lead To Acclaim That Can Undermine The Habits Of Mind That Produced The Success – Such Hubris Often Afflicts Highly Accomplished Individuals

~ TAODPIAPWTIJ-BTKWID-CUPOPMOTS-IITDOTPTMTMW ~ The Aggregation Of Different Perspectives Is A Potent Way To Improve Judgment – But The Key Word Is Different – Combining Uniform Perspectives Only Produces More Of The Same – It Is The Diversity Of The Perspectives That Makes The Magic Work

~ THRFGJINSD-IIIH-IIARTRIPC-TSTCIACS-WICBDAA-ATHJMTBRWM ~ The Humility Required For Good Judgment Is Not Self-Doubt – It Is Intellectual Humility – It Is A Recognition That Reality Is Profoundly Complex – That Seeing Things Clearly Is A Constant Struggle – When It Can Be Done At All – And That Human Judgment Must Therefore Be Riddled With Mistakes

~ BTCSSIE-ATFOKIS ~ But The Continuous Self-Scrutiny Is Exhausting – And The Feeling Of Knowing Is Seductive

~ KWWDKIBTTWKWWD ~ Knowing What We Don’t Know Is Better Than Thinking We Know What We Don’t

~ OEOTFADFOMMOHTWW-AEEIAOTLAITM ~ Our Expectations Of The Future Are Derived From Our Mental Models Of How The World Works – And Every Event Is An Opportunity To Learn And Improve Those Models

~ VEAIFANH-FTCNBPW ~ Vague Expectations About Indefinite Futures Are Not Helpful – Fuzzy Thinking Can Never Be Proven Wrong

~ AWHTDIGSAKS ~ All We Have To Do Is Get Serious About Keeping Score

MICHAEL PARENTI ~ THE FACE OF IMPERIALISM

~ TMOIE ~ The Myth Of Innocent Empires

~ EAEPFTIIOTIN-BECTTPOTCC ~ Empires Are Enormously Profitable For The Investor Interests Of The Imperial Nation – But Enormously Costly To The People Of The Colonized Country

~ EIWPASHNOIP ~ Empires Impoverish Whole Populations And Slaughter Huge Numbers Of Innocent People

~ KTWSFGCARAMME-AMMICASOICA ~ Keeping The World Safe For Global Capital Accumulation Requires A Massive Military Establishment – A Massive Military Itself Constitutes A Source Of Immense Capital Accumulation

~ TENDTUSC-ATHTBTPBISTD-ILAOOTGSEOWAMB ~ The Enormous National Debt The United States Carries – And The Heavy Tax Burden The Public Bears In Servicing That Debt – Is Largely An Outgrowth Of The Gargantuan Sums Expended On Wars And Military Budgets

~ OPACLRTUTTWIARHP-TSEE-LBTOIIPTICWSM ~ Our Political And Corporate Leaders Repeatedly Tell Us That The World Is A Relentlessly Hostile Place – They See Enemies Everywhere – Largely Because Their Own Imperial Interests Put Them In Conflict With So Many

~ WTTSO ~ When The Truth Slips Out

~ USOMTCAIFD ~ US Opinion Makers Treat Capitalism As Inseparable From Democracy

~ IPHNTH-WDTHSM? ~ If Policymakers Have Nothing To Hide – Why Do They Hide So Much?

~ TNOPLIPIGAAFRTTWP ~ The Number Of People Living In Poverty Is Growing At A Faster Rate Than The World’s Population

~ BDPFTLARTOTSS-CCLMOWDPFISTTTFPW(WTCGW) ~ By Displacing People From Their Lands And Robbing Them Of Their Self-Sufficiency – Corporations Create Labor Markets Overcrowded With Desperate Populations Forced Into Shanty Towns To Toil For Poverty Wages (When They Can Get Work)

~ FTEPRAEORATNOTW ~ Free Trade Elevates Property Rights Above Every Other Right Among The Nations Of The World

~ TWTMNC ~ The War To Monopolize Nature Continues

~ ‘FT’IDTLTWE(AE)DTTTMOBATC ~ “Free Trade” Is Designed To Leave The World’s Economic (And Ecological) Destiny To The Tender Mercy Of Bankers And Transnational Corporations

~ UTFTA-AAAPSCBROOEBTC’LMO’FPC ~ Under The Free Trade Agreements – Any And All Public Services Can Be Ruled Out Of Existence Because They Cause “Lost Market Opportunities” For Private Capital

~ TFAFTIAFFTRTPED ~ The Fight Against Free Trade Is A Fight For The Right To Political-Economic Democracy

~ TRNTBCATMOBC ~ The Right Not To Be Completely At The Mercy Of Big Capital

~ FTMPFTFAPFTM ~ Free Trade Means Privatization For The Few And Privation For The Many

~ AFMD ~ Another Free Market Disaster

FRANCES MOORE LAPPE ~ SIX HUMAN TRAITS WE CAN COUNT ON ~ ECOMIND ~ 2011

~ C-ITOTCACCEOESJAMACD ~ Cooperation – It Turns Out That Cooperating And Co-Creating Explain Our Evolutionary Success Just As Much As Competition Does

~ E-CIMPBE-AITSTBACDCO-‘SW’-IU ~ Empathy – Cooperation Is Made Possible By Empathy – And It Too Seems To Be A Capacity Deeply Carved – Or – “Soft-Wired” – Into Us

~ E-COSHMITA7BIWWE-CP-S-A-W? ~ Efficacy – Could Our Species Have Made It To Almost 7 Billion If We Were Essentially – Couch Potatoes – Shoppers – And – Whiners? – I Don’t Think So

~ M-WHBACOM-SWTGODVBEOOW ~ Meaning – We Human Beings Are Creatures Of Meaning – Seeking Ways To Give Our Days Value Beyond Ensuring Our Own Survival

~ I&C-OATCILOE-WCLAOE-WCIDE-A-WCTTIEIT ~ Imagination And Creativity – Our Ability To Change In Light Of Experience – We Can Learn About Our Environment – We Can Imagine Different Environments – And – We Can Turn Those Imagined Environments Into Reality

~ UCCOPSQD ~ Under Certain Conditions Our Pro-Social Qualities Dissolve

~ ALTCHBSOOLHTETWIU-MBTDSMTEOOPRPC-EPI-S-S ~ At Least Three Conditions Have Been Shown Over Our Long History To Elicit The Worst In Us – Mainly Because They Deny So Many The Expression Of Our Proven Richly Positive Capacities – Extreme Power Inequalities – Secrecy – Scapegoating

~ OSWEAEICODSTFANF-M-E-A-C-AASISWPITHAOSOFSM ~ Our Soft-Wired Empathy And Enjoyment In Cooperation – Our Deep Sensibility To Fairness And Need For – Meaning – Efficacy – And – Creativity – All Are Stifled In Societies Where Power Is Tightly Held And Opportunities Shut Off For So Many