CARMEN REINHART + KENNETH ROGOFF ~ THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

~ WHBHB ~ We Have Been Here Before

~ NMHDTLFFOCAA-TAURSWPEFOCAFH-RTAAPIAESTIOGFS-BTRTROFCATBHCWTH ~ No Matter How Different The Latest Financial Frenzy Or Crisis Always Appears – There Are Usually Remarkable Similarities With Past Experience From Other Countries And From History – Recognizing These Analogies And Precedents Is An Essential Step Toward Improving Our Global Financial System – Both To Reduce The Risk Of Future Crisis And To Better Handle Catastrophes When They Happen

~ PMTAE-FTRTPAFOC-EICIWLSTDNTBROC-ITKFTGRTTTTIDS ~ Perhaps More Than Anything Else – Failure To Recognize The Precariousness And Fickleness Of Confidence – Especially In Cases In Which Large Short-Term Debts Need To Be Rolled Over Continuously – Is The Key Factor That Gives Rise To The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome

~ HIGBOCCSTBMRAFAEP-WB-CCLDAACH ~ Highly Indebted Governments, Banks, Or Corporations Can Seem To Be Merrily Rolling Along For An Extended Period – When Bang – Confidence Collapse, Lenders Disappear, And A Crisis Hits

~ EDNHATGIOWKOESCAOHTCACV ~ Economists Do Not Have A Terribly Good Idea Of What Kinds Of Events Shift Confidence And Of How To Concretely Assess Confidence Vulnerability

~ WODS-A&A-ITHOFC-ITWAAIWTH-IED ~ What One Does See – Again And Again – In The History Of Financial Crises Is That When An Accident Is Waiting To Happen – It Eventually Does

~ BAFMDWTAFBD ~ Bubbles Are Far More Dangerous When They Are Fuelled By Debt

~ TEOTTIDSIS-IIRITFHBTFCA-TTHTOPIOC-AOT-CDNHTU-HAN-WADTTHTOPIOCAOT ~ The Essence Of This Time Is Different Syndrome Is Simple – It Is Rooted In The Firmly Held Belief That Financial Crises Are – Things That Happen To Other People In Other Countries – At Other Times – Crises Do Not Happen To Us – Here And Now

~ WADTB-WAS-WHLFPM ~ We Are Doing Things Better – We Are Smarter – We Have Learned From Past Mistakes

~ TOROVNLA ~ The Old Rules Of Valuation No Longer Apply

~ U-AHLECUBSWIBATEOAFCFMYBCACPACOCTPIO ~ Unfortunately – A Highly Leveraged Economy Can Unwittingly Be Sitting With Its Back At The Edge Of A Financial Cliff For Many Years Before Chance And Circumstance Provoke A Crisis Of Confidence That Pushes It Off

~ SDOEDITNTERITW ~ Serial Default On External Debts Is The Norm Throughout Every Region In The World

~ BCAOABOKOC ~ Banking Crises Are Often Accompanied By Other Kinds Of Crises

~ POHICMHRPIBC ~ Periods Of High International Capital Mobility Have Repeatedly Produced International Banking Crises

~ FLHAINEOTSOTBS-TRIRANS ~ Financial Liberalization Has An Independent Negative Effect On The Stability Of The Banking Sector – This Result Is Robust Across Numerous Specifications

~ FIIAVOTLP ~ Financial Innovation Is A Variant Of The Liberalization Process

~ IICPAIRIRR-FBPTIRD-ASBERRTL ~ International Institutions Can Play An Important Role In Reducing Risk – First By Promoting Transparency In Reporting Data – And Second By Enforcing Regulations Related To Leverage

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