GARY HAUGEN + VICTOR BOUTROS ~ THE 15-70-15 RULE ~ THE LOCUST EFFECT ~ 2014

~ 15%-IOUTCPAAFPPP ~ 15 Percent – Intent On Using Their Coercive Power And Authority For Purely Predatory Purposes

~ 15%-ITDGATSTP ~ 15 Percent – Intent To Do Good And To Serve The Pubic

~ 70%-SWTSWOTTFIGTPIDTOCAISOR ~ 70 Percent – Simply Waiting To See Which Of These Two Factions Is Going To Prevail In Dominating The Organizational Culture And Its System Of Rewards

GARY HAUGEN + VICTOR BOUTROS ~ THE LOCUST EFFECT ~ 2014

~ TEOPRTEOV ~ The End Of Poverty Requires The End Of Violence

~ TVSWOV ~ The Vast Subterranean World Of Violence

~ TRIVHFOTS-B-MAOVATPAIH ~ This Reality Is Very Hard For Outsiders To See – Because – Most Acts Of Violence Against The Poor Are Intentionally Hidden

~ AE-SE-O-A-FL-A-T-EM ~ An Entire – Subterranean Economy – Of – Abduction – Forced Labor – And – Torture – Engulfing Millions

~ VIAMAPOWIMTBPA-B-H-S-H-O-J-IF-VIFTPTPPAMCA-IIOOTCRTAPITFP-AOOTPRTSP ~ Violence Is As Much A Part Of What It Means To Be Poor As – Being – Hungry – Sick – Homeless – Or – Jobless – In Fact – Violence Is Frequently The Problem That Poor People Are Most Concerned About – It Is One Of The Core Reasons They Are Poor In The First Place – And One Of The Primary Reasons They Stay Poor

~ SV-OOTMPADSOVATP ~ Sexual Violence – One Of The Most Pervasive And Devastating Sources Of Violence Against The Poor

~ LSDP-SVHSIENACOTDW-T-H-S-A-W-O-A-PO-W-C-A-C-IIOWAGWARV ~ Like Some Dread Plague – Sexual Violence Has Seeped Into Every Nook And Cranny Of The Developing World – The – Homes – Schools – Alleys – Workplaces – Orphanages – And – Places Of – Worship – Commerce – And – Care – It Is Overwhelmingly Women And Girls Who Are The Victims

~ THCBAPO-S-L-B-FTPWAG ~ The Home Can Be A Place Of – Silent – Lawless – Brutality – For The Poorest Women And Girls

~ OOTPRGDGTSITDWISV ~ One Of The Primary Reasons Girls Don’t Go To School In The Developing World Is Sexual Violence

~ SVIAB-EDTAMOPWAROSMAPOACT ~ Sexual Violence Is A Business – Every Day There Are Millions Of People Who Are Raped Or Sexually Molested As Part Of A Commercial Transaction

~ ‘PG’ ~ “Property Grabbing”

~ MOTWPPLICIWTCBSTOOTHAOTLBTINRRKSFADWOTLATP ~ Most Of The World’s Poorest People Live In Circumstances In Which They Can Be Summarily Thrown Out Of Their Homes And Off Their Land Because There Is No Reliable Record Keeping System For Accurately Demonstrating Who Owns The Land And The Property

~ TBEOTSPATACBSAIAITVLS ~ The Best Efforts Of The Struggling Poor And Their Allies Can Be Swept Away In An Instance Through Violent Land Seizures

~ APAAD ~ Abusive Police And Arbitrary Detention

~ TIOLEITDWAAATTV-TIPWTPHBTTTTW-TMPCAPPFTGPIFTOPF ~ The Institutions Of Law Enforcement In The Developing World Are Actually Adding To The Violence – This Is Precisely What The Poor Have Been Trying To Tell The World – The Most Pervasive Criminal And Predatory Presence For The Global Poor Is Frequently Their Own Police Force

~ AD ~ Abusive Detention

~ AGFAPPAATDW-BPUATIJBTPOFC-AAWO-E-M-SA-P-A-OGAS ~ A Great Fear Among Poor People All Around The Developing World – Begin Picked Up And Thrown In Jail By The Police On False Charges – As A Way Of – Extorting – Money – Sex Acts – Property – And – Other Goods And Services

~ FFFIAIAFFW-IIITTEOOTRWTO ~ Freedom From Fear Is As Important As Freedom From Want – It Is Impossible To Truly Enjoy One Of These Rights Without The Other

~ ERSLOPTVTOECBDTPH-EIIIOOTFPA-TDHE ~ Even Relatively Small Losses Of Property Through Violent Theft Or Extortion Can Be Debilitating To Poor Households – Especially If It Is One Of Their Few Productive Assets – They Don’t Have Extras

~ IABIVBV-LU-E-A-ACW-TREIDAW-ATP-MPALTBDUTB ~ If A Breadwinner Is Victimized By Violence – Locked Up – Enslaved – Assaulted – And Can’t Work – The Ripple Effect Is Deep And Wide – Among The Poor – More People Are Likely To Be Dependent Upon That Breadwinner

~ THCOT ~ The Hidden Cost Of Trauma

~ TGDOVII-IITDOTPI ~ The Greatest Devastation Of Violence Is Invisible – It Is The Destruction Of The Person Inside

~ IWCOTLE-NEGPDTHTPWBTS ~ If We Can’t Overcome The Locust Effect – Nothing Else Good People Do To Help The Poor Will Be Truly Sustainable

~ BEPJSITDWI-C/D/D-A-U ~ Building Effective Public Justice Systems In The Developing World Is – Costly / Difficult / Dangerous – And – Unlikely

~ IICTTCNAATLVMBA ~ It Is Certainly True That Cultural Norms And Attitudes That Legitimate Violence Must Be Addressed

~ IDN-E&B-A-‘TEN’-FIWP-CPTPIABWAPWAMCOTTPTNETL-TPACOBTPAPTWOABTMV ~ In Developing Nations – Extortion And Bribery – Are – “The Expected Norm” – For Interactions With The Police – Corruption Places The Poor In A Bidding War Against Perpetrators Who Are Making Counter Offers To The Police To Not Enforce The Law – The Police Are Co-Opted By The Powerful And Put To Work Oppressing And Bullying The Most Vulnerable

~ TSRIT:TPDHPP ~ The Stark Reality Is This: The Poor Don’t Have Police Protection

~ ADD ~ A Dream Devastated

~ CNOTJDS ~ Catastrophic Neglect Of The Justice Delivery System

~ OCTLSICIAFL-TTLOTCP-ANOTPAEE ~ Of Course The Legal System Is Conducted In A Foreign Language – That’s The Language Of The Colonial Power – And Now Of The Political And Economic Elite

~ PJAPL ~ Private Justice And Public Lawlessness

~ EDNNAEPJSTPTFBVBO-B-TMNABPJSTPTFBHAFVO ~ Elites Do Not Need An Effective Public Justice System To Protect Them From Being Victimized By Others – But – They May Need A Broken Public Justice System To Protect Them From Being Held Accountable For Victimizing Others

~ BJSAITTHB-ECJSTIOTM ~ Broken Public Justice Systems Auction Impunity To The Highest Bidder – Effective Criminal Justice Systems Take Impunity Off The Market

~ SV ~ Security Vacuums

~ IC ~ International Crime

~ TTHSCFTIACTRIIPTATLTIUSMOETATP ~ The Time Has Surely Come For The International Aid Community To Revise Its Investment Priorities To Address The Lawlessness That Is Undermining So Many Other Efforts To Assist The Poor

~ STBFJSITDWALTSOWTALLACFWTCTF-OAV-C-C-S-A-SB-TPT-I-S-E-A-SOLLACF ~ Struggles To Build Functioning Justice Systems In The Developing World Are Likely To Succeed Only Where There Are Local Leaders And Community Forces Willing To Carry The Fight – On A Very – Committed – Costly – Sustained – And – Sacrificial Basis – This Priorities The – Identification – Support – Encouragement – And – Strengthening Of Local Leaders And Community Forces

~ TPWITPJSITDWA-GVPP-O-IT-PM-UR-FTSTWAADODL-A-TICO-A-GR-V-A-T ~ The People Working In The Public Justice Systems In The Developing World Are – Generally Very Poorly Paid – Overworked – Ill-Trained – Poorly Managed – Under-Resourced – Forced To Serve The Whims And Arbitrary Demands Of Dysfunctional Leaders – And – Trained In Cultures Of – Abuse – Gratuitous Rudeness – Violence – And – Theft

~ DPOH ~ Demonstrations Projects Of Hope

~ 15-70-15 ~ The 15-70-15 Rule

~ BSD ~ Build Social Demand

~ LF-D-C-RITS ~ Look For – Decisive – Courageous – Reformers Inside The System

~ ACITCJSF ~ Attack Corruption In The Criminal Justice System First

~ CHAEIFPC ~ Clean House And End Impunity For Police Corruption

~ TTNPWR ~ Treat The New Police With Respect

~ WPTTECFAPR ~ Win Public Trust Through Effective Crime Fighting And Public Relations

~ IBTJ ~ International Bridges To Justice

~ JSR ~ Justice Sector Roundtables

~ RAC ~ Rights Awareness Campaigns

~ DRC&TPOLS ~ Defender Resource Centers And The Provision Of Legal Services

~ T-DOT-I-IDO-PA-R-A-P ~ Transformed – Days Of Tragedy – Into – Iconic Days Of – Public Awareness – Remembrance – And – Protest

~ LEOTP ~ Legal Empowerment Of The Poor

~ TTCAGP-WWSOGP-WMSOTVIITP ~ Transform The Conversation About Global Poverty – Whenever We Speak Of Global Poverty – We Must Speak Of The Violence Imbedded In That Poverty

~ TPOVDETW-H-DW-D-I-U-GD-H-S-BFTP-VIEBAD-A-IFTHFUSTTON ~ The Problem Of Violence Deserves Equal Time With – Hunger – Dirty Water – Disease – Illiteracy – Unemployment – Gender Discrimination – Housing – Sanitation – Because For The Poor – Violence Is Every Bit As Devastating – And – Is Frequently The Hidden Force Undermining Solutions To These Other Needs

~ FFVAF ~ Freedom From Violence And Fear

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA + ALASTAIR SMITH ~ THE RULES ~ THE DICTATOR’S HANDBOOK ~ 2011

~ KYWCASAP-FEEMCACTMDOE ~ Keep Your Winning Coalition As Small As Possible – Fewer Essentials Equals More Control And Contributes To More Discretion Over Expenditures

~ KYNSALAP-MALSOIAYCERATIYC-IAEA ~ Keep Your Nominal Selectorate As Large As Possible – Maintain A Large Selectorate Of Interchangeables And You Can Easily Replace Any Troublemakers In Your Coalition – Influentials And Essentials Alike

~ CTFOR-IABFARTDWETIITHALPFWTPCFT ~ Control The Flow Of Revenue – It’s Always Better For A Ruler To Determine Who Eats Than It Is To Have A Larger Pie From Which The People Can Feed Themselves

~ PYKSJETKTL-YBAOTITYKWTMIATD ~ Pay Your Key Supporters Just Enough To Keep Them Loyal – Your Big Advantage Over Them Is That You Know Where The Money Is And They Don’t

~ DTMOOYSPTMTPLB-TFS-INTBTCTYCOS ~ Don’t Take Money Out Of Your Supporters’ Pockets To Make The People’s Lives Better – The Flip Side – Is Not To Be Too Cheap Toward Your Coalition Of Supporters

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA + ALASTAIR SMITH ~ THE DICTATOR’S HANDBOOK ~ 2011

~ NLWCGA ~ No Leader Whatsoever Can Govern Alone

~ GDNDIK-TDATDOTSAWC-LLDODAAC-OAC ~ Governments Do Not Differ In Kind – They Differ Along The Dimensions Of Their Selectorates And Winning Coalitions – Labels Like Democracy Or Dictatorship Are A Convenience – Only A Convenience

~ TKBH-ALNM-ECTMF ~ To Keep Backers Happy – A Leader Needs Money – Extraction Can Take Many Forms

~ WEFETBBOUTWOSPC-TD ~ When Essential Followers Expect To Be Better Off Under The Wing Of Some Political Challenger – They Desert

~ MSTBAFSUTECOFAITAMAAC ~ Murder Seems To Be A Favored Solution Under The Extreme Conditions Of Fear And Insecurity That Accompany Monarchic And Autocratic Succession

~ WPSTAAAICTITNOPTWTAB ~ What Politicians Seek To Avoid Are Any Institutional Changes That Increase The Number Of People To Whom They Are Beholden

~ DACIATPFCTPIAD ~ Divide And Conquer Is A Terrific Principle For Coming To Power In A Democracy

~ DAGJINETEPS ~ Doing A Good Job Is Not Enough Ensure Political Survival

~ TTMICOACA:LLL ~ The Three Most Important Characteristics Of A Coalition Are: Loyalty; Loyalty; Loyalty

~ DFSAALTSBMM ~ Debt Forgiveness Simply Allows Autocratic Leaders To Start Borrowing More Money

~ WKTDRAATETIO-DFWTPOSDNW ~ We Know That Debt Relief Allows Autocrats To Entrench Themselves In Office – Debt Forgiveness With The Promise Of Subsequent Democratization Never Works

~ TRTOG:AMTKTCH-B-NTH-A-PJETKTIFRUIR-BNEOTSOSAWCMACOAR ~ The Real Task Of Governing: Allocating Money To Keep The Coalition Happy – But – Not Too Happy – And Providing Just Enough To Keep The Interchangeables From Rising Up In Revolt – Better Not Err On The Side Of Shortchanging Anyone Who Could Mount A Coup Or A Revolution

~ KTFAH-ATMAUTRUAY-ISETHT-S-S-I-P-AAUTR ~ Keep Them Fat And Happy – And The Masses Are Unlikely To Rise Up Against You – It Seems Equally True However That – Sick – Starving – Ignorant – People – Are Also Unlikely To Revolt

~ WMR?-IITGIB-TWANINC-TFATWACTR-TLACAHNRTR ~ Who Makes Revolution? – It Is The Great In-Between – Those Who Are Neither Immiserated Nor Coddled – The Former Are Too Weak And Cowered To Revolt – The Latter Are Content And Have No Reason To Revolt

~ TMRMTAGLFOPRTPOIIITFODOABCTCPSPTGFTP ~ The Most Reliable Means To A Good Life For Ordinary People Remains The Presence Of Institutional Incentives In The Form Of Dependence On A Big Coalition That Compels Power-Seeking Politicians To Govern For The People

~ IDAL? ~ Is Democracy A Luxury?

~ HEPAAPTTA-ASAMSTLEO ~ Highly Educated People Are A Potential Threat To Autocrats – And So Autocrats Make Sure To Limit Educational Opportunity

~ FA-MSOP-LIALC-WAYAFCTTE-IMW ~ For Autocrats – Money Spent On People – Like Infants And Little Children – Who Are Years Away From Contributing To The Economy – Is Money Wasted

~ RAVCTBAIIETHTTC-TMTAGSOG-WITMCTA-B-HACTWCCLT-NRPC-P-E-O-O-TUTA ~ Roads Are Very Costly To Build And It Is Easy To Hide Their True Costs – This Makes Them A Good Source Of Graft – Which In Turn Makes Constructing Them Attractive – But – Having A Country Too Well Connected Can Lead To – New Regional Power Centers – Political – Economic – Or – Otherwise – That Undermine The Autocrat

~ TWMCRAALBASC ~ The World’s Most Corrupt Regimes Are Always Led By A Small Coalition

~ WS:SCAW ~ Wall Street: Small Coalitions At Work

~ MTATDISAOBW ~ More Than A Trillion Dollars Is Spent Annually On Bribes Worldwide

~ LCPTADRITTTCLFG ~ Leaders Can Put Themselves At Dire Risk If They Take Their Coalition’s Loyalty For Granted

~ AIGIEFPCFMRAIFLQ-T-TRPAS ~ Aid Is Given In Exchange For Policy Concessions Far More Readily And In Far Larger Quantities – Than – To Reduce Poverty And Suffering

~ WKTAWMBITPOGG-JAWKTMOTNIGTPWBG ~ We Know That Aid Works Much Better In The Presence Of Good Governance – Just As We Know That More Often Than Not It Goes To Places With Bad Governance

~ MREUSROAWA-OSOTSRCABWTIP ~ Many Revolutions End Up Simply Replacing One Autocracy With Another – On Some Occasions The Successor Regime Can Actually Be Worse Than Its Predecessor

~ OPWTEIRNBSCBD-TSWFTOITBOAE ~ Only People Willing To Engage In Really Nasty Behaviour Should Contemplate Becoming Dictators – The Softhearted Will Find Themselves Ousted In The Blink Of An Eye

~ NAWNRWOLWFARD-TATWMOP-TLHRTRTESWHTETP ~ Nations Awash With Natural Resource Wealth Or Lavished With Foreign Aid Rarely Democratize – They Are The World’s Most Oppressive Places – Their Leaders Have Resources To Reward Their Essential Supporters Without Having To Empower The People

~ JAWDFONL-FA-SBTTTAOPR-ANTIP ~ Just As With Debt Forgiveness Or New Loans – Foreign Aid – Should Be Tied To The Actuality Of Political Reform – And Not To Its Promise

~ WSTPTFNDWWW-NWTW ~ We Seem To Prefer That Foreign Nations Do What We Want – Not What They Want

~ WSNLTQFPBTWTLI ~ We Should Never Let The Quest For Perfection Block The Way To Lesser Improvement

~ EMIIGCRISIITWOPMOPOS ~ Even Minor Improvements In Governance Can Result In Significant Improvements In The Welfare Of Potentially Millions Of People Or Shareholders

~ BTWOMAOLGRBSCOEWALTLWCMTR ~ Behind The World Of Misery And Oppression Lie Governments Run By Small Cliques Of Essentials Who Are Loyal To Leaders Who Can Make Them Rich

~ BTWOFAPLGTDOTBOASCOOP ~ Behind The World Of Freedom And Prosperity Lie Governments That Depend On The Backing Of A Substantial Coalition Of Ordinary People