JAMES RICKARDS ~ THE ROAD TO RUIN ~ 2016

~ TNFC ~ The Next Financial Crisis

~ G-SIFI-‘TBTF’ ~ Globally Systemic Important Financial Institution – “Too Big To Fail”

~ SIB ~ Systemically Important Banks

~ BI-IOBOD-DM-TCTFB ~ Bail-In – Instead Of Bailing Out Depositors – Depositors’ Money – To Recapitalize The Failed Banks

~ MRSU-YTC ~ Money Riots Seem Unreal – Yet They Come

~ SDR-AWMFBTDFI ~ Special Drawing Rights – A World Money Fire Brigade To Douse Financial Infernos

~ TGACERD-RIECCS-F-TC-T-TA-A-BA-IAEG ~ The Government And Corporate Elite Revolving Door – Results In Experts’ Continually Changing Sides – From – Tax Collector – To – Tax Avoider – And – Back Again – It’s An Elite Game

~ CTAIALDECNLA ~ Corporate Tax Avoidance Is A Luxury Developed Economies Can No Longer Afford

~ VW-EIFS-HMFFTSR-WSS ~ Virtual Warfare – Especially In Financial Space – Has Moved From Fantasy To Sophisticated Reality – With Stunning Speed

~ TPOTITTWSGTCANLW ~ The Problem Over Time Is That The Winning Strategy Gets Too Crowded And No Longer Works

~ PWITOLTWSU ~ Personal Wealth Is The Only Language That Wall Street Understands

~ L(N)L ~ Lessons (Not) Learned

~ TISRTAGNVI-RGUIANF-BAFWCB-TOOHT-DOSSC ~ There Is Scant Recognition That As Gross Notional Value Increases – Risk Goes Up In A Nonlinear Fashion – By A Factor Which Can Be – Ten Or One Hundred Times – Depending On Specific System Characteristics

~ CDE-M-O-F-PD-R-IAEFOS-SCIISCPDR-OCBOOC ~ Complex Dynamics Exhibit – Memory – Or – Feedback – Path Dependence – Risk – Is An Exponential Function Of Scale – Small Changes In Initial System Contentions Produce Divergent Results – Output Can Be Orderly Or Chaotic

~ O-B-S-D-ADBTAO-IAC-CCFEOTNTDTTN ~ Off-Balance-Sheet-Derivatives – Are Dangerous Because They Are Opaque – In A Crisis – Counterparties Cannot Find Each Other To Net Transactions Due To This Nontransparency

~ CRSBIAACAEC-TSBE-BNA ~ Capital Requirements Should Be Increased As A Cushion Against Emergent Crises – That Should Be Expected – But Never Are

~ NESCAA ~ Not Every Snowflake Causes An Avalanche

~ FMADNWFB-B-B-A-S/I/R/AIG-MBATOOFMI-SDAAN ~ Free Market Approaches Do Not Work For Banks – Because – Banks – Are – Subsidized / Insured / Regulated / And Implicitly Guaranteed – Modern Banks Are The Opposite Of Free Market Institutions – So Different Approaches Are Needed

~ RMOWSHBDBAMC-‘VAR’-TBTRIRD-ATEEHNBOTNEIAS-B-WIMANLCT?-WINEAPABWWB? ~ Risk Management On Wall Street Has Been Dominated By A Model Called – “Value At Risk” – The Belief That Risk Is Randomly Distributed – And That Each Event Has No Bearing On The Next Event In A Sequence – But – What If Markets Are Not Like Coin Tosses? – What If New Events Are Profoundly Affected By What Went Before?

~ MOTS:BB/MD/MI ~ More Of The Same: Bigger Banks / More Derivatives / More Interconnectedness

~ TNCEIO-OATSIBR ~ The Next Critical Event Is Overdue – Once Again The System Is Blinking Red

~ CMWCTASOC-WA-T-CBWDFMDTCTOTF ~ Capital Markets Were Condemned To A Succession Of Calamities – While Academics-Turned-Central Bankers Waited Decades For More Data To Convince Them Of Their Failures

~ TSBFTBR-SB-FD-LL-A-SM ~ The Step Back From The Brink Requires – Smaller Banks – Fewer Derivatives– Less Leverage – And – Sound Money

~ ECRDFPC-TSAMFS-TIASCOCBBTD ~ Elites Conduct Ritual Disagreements For Public Consumption – These Squabbles Are Mostly For Show – There Is A Shocking Conformity Of Core Beliefs Behind These Debates

~ FT-IAM-AACO-DTOTRBFCA-OMA-ITL-WITCFFT? ~ Free Trade – Is Another Myth – And A Costly One – Do Terms Of Trade Reflect Bona Fide Comparative Advantage – Or Manipulated Advantage – If The Latter – What Is The Case For Free Trade?

~ ODEBEI-FER ~ One Distortion Embraced By Elites Is – Floating Exchange Rates

~ TGTONIEANRANRTII ~ Today Globalization’s Triumph Over Nationalism Is Energizing A Nationalist Revival As Nations Reassess Their Individual Interests

~ CGCPEFTCFS ~ Certain Global Corporations Profit Enormously From The Current Flawed System

~ ASGOGC-WMC-H-TATRP-A-PMTMER-MAMOFT ~ A Small Group Of Global Corporations – With Mobile Capital – Hair-Trigger Ability To Relocate Plants – And – Political Muscle To Move Exchange Rates – Make A Mockery Of Free Trade

~ TSANSOTECIT-1990-AE-2000-CBEIASW:D ~ The Superficial And Nonsustainable Success Of The Elite Consensus In The – 1990s – And Early – 2000s – Can Be Explained In A Single Word: Debt

~ FMAFTA-FIT-NIP ~ Free Markets And Free Trade Are – Flawed In Theory – Nonexistent In Practice

~ SP-HCAHW-ITWF ~ Smart Policy – Helping Capital And Helping Workers – Is The Way Forward

~ ATWMETA-P-EB-CC-O-BCB ~ All The World’s Major Economies Today Are – Planned – Either By – Central Committees – Or – By Central Banks

~ TPEPWADFATCFTS-TPPTP-ASOS-MPTSICFTSPOCA-‘PFP’ ~ The Poor Encounter Police Who Are De Facto Armed Tax Collectors For The State – The Poor Pay The Price – A Share Of Seizures – Motivates Police To Stop Innocent Citizens For The Sole Purpose Of Confiscating Assets – “Policing For Profit”

~ EATPDBGATM ~ Emergency Access To Private Data By Government Agents Takes Minutes

~ AA-SH-TINOTHTHNHB-B-TIMTHNHL-MAS ~ Above All – Study History – There Is Nothing On The Horizon That Has Not Happened Before – But – There Is Much That Has Not Happened Lately – Memories Are Short

~ PTC-IINTEOTW-IITEOAA ~ Periodically Things Collapse – It Is Not The End Of The World – It Is The End Of An Age

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