Month: February 2020

GEORGE LOIS ~ DAMN GOOD ADVICE ~ 2012

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~ BTTYAYRTTTW ~ Be True To Yourself And You’ll Ring True To The World

~ FYB-TWYL-YMSYLD-APAAPAY-H-M-A-I-A-A-TSYITB-WSRITSOMHB-TGYCOATSL ~ Follow Your Bliss – That Which You Love – You Must Spend Your Life Doing – As Passionately And As Perfectly As Your – Heart – Mind – And – Instincts – Allow – And – The Sooner You Identify That Bliss – Which Surely Resides In The Soul Of Most Human Beings – The Greater Your Chance Of A Truly Successful Life

~ ATTITWAMWAEI ~ All The Tools In The World Are Meaningless Without An Essential Idea

~ AGFTBI ~ Always Go For The Big Idea

~ ACSCIAN ~ All Creativity Should Communicate In A Nanosecond

~ TWCF-TTV ~ The Word Comes First – Then The Visual

~ INHSYMI-IHYMIS ~ It’s Not How Short You Make It – It’s How You Make It Short

~ IYCPASEYCI-F ~ If You Can’t Passionately And Succinctly Explain Your Creative Ideas – Fuggedaboutit!

~ ATIAAT ~ A Trend Is Always A Trap

~ CINC-IITFUTF-IIAAOD ~ Creativity Is Not Created – It Is There For Us To Find – It Is An Act Of Discovery

~ WJBA-CT-WYCBA-CP ~ Why Just Be A – Creative Thinker – When You Can Be A – Cultural Provocateur!

~ ABICCWC ~ A Big Idea Can Change World Culture

~ GA-BI-INAAOI-BR-OOD ~ Getting A – Big Idea – Is Not An Act Of Inspiration – But Rather – One Of Discovery

~ YCB-C-O-YCB-C-B-TNSTAA-CC ~ You Can Be – Cautious – Or – You Can Be – Creative – But – There’s No Such Thing As A – Cautious Creative

~ RGG-TAT:D-B-CD-M-IAAMB-O-T-OP-T-MWIU ~ Reject Group Grope – Think About This: Decisive – Breakthrough – Creative Decision-Making – Is Almost Always Made By – One – Two – Or Possibly – Three – Minds Working In Unison

~ BCOY-O-E-S-T ~ Be Confident Of Your – Own – Edgy – Solo – Talent

~ TGTFBB-YCJBTY’G’~ To Get That First Big Break – You Can’t Just Brag That You’re “Great”

~ Y-P-S-I-P-S-KA ~ Your – Portfolio – Should – Ignite – Provoke – Shock – Kick Ass

~ WIW ~ Work Is Worship

~ M-OMD-LL-TMD ~ Make – One Million Dollars – Look Like – Ten Million Dollars!

~ NMWKOWYI-DI-F-O-T-A-DI-P ~ No Matter What Kind Of Work You’re In – Do It – Fast – On-Time – And – Do It – Perfectly

~ Even A Brilliant Idea Won’t Sell Itself

~ ADTTWYPABI:TTWTAGTS;SITT;TT-D-WTJS ~ Always Do Three Things When You Present A Big Idea: Tell Them What They Are Going To See; Show It To Them; Tell Them – Dramatically – What They Just Saw

~ WYPA-BI-BPT-ADQ ~ When You’re Presenting A – Big Idea – Be Prepared To – Answer Dumb Questions

~ TCOATGBNCBAB-DI! ~ The Creation Of A Truly Great Brand Name Can Become A Billion-Dollar Idea!

~ GW-MBPT-TP-TH-TPTAYC-U-CAS-‘N’-B-HNPTS-‘Y’ ~ Great Work – Must Be Presented To – The Person – That Has – The Power To Accept Your Creations – Underlings – Can Always Say – “No” – But – Have No Power To Say – “Yes”

~ WYPAEI-IITMT-TS-TEITTMG-INABI! ~ When You Present An Entrepreneurial Idea – If It Takes More Than – Three Sentences – To Explain It To The Money Guys – It’s Not A Big Idea!

~ DE-K-WF-BP ~ Don’t Ever – Knowingly – Work For – Bad People

~ ATG-AC-IDB-ABI-TC:AMS!;AMV! ~ A Truly Great – Ad Campaign – Is Driven By – A Big Idea – That Contains: A Memorable Slogan!; A Memorable Visual!

~ MTE-ITAO-IT-M-CAUSBSIATW ~ More Than Ever – In This Age Of – Internet Technology – Misinformation – Comes At Us Second By Second In A Tidal Wave

~ A-TP-M-R-S-Q-E-A-NLTBBY ~ A – Thinking Person – Must – Read – Study – Question – Evaluate – And – Not Let The Bullshiters Bullshit You

~ NMWSYAIYC-UYCTSUFOHAPYCATV ~ No Matter What Stage You Are In Your Career – Use Your Creativity To Stand Up For Our Heroes And Protect Your Culture Against The Villains

~ DTRT-SYCBPOY-TTDYD ~ Do The Right Thing – So You Can Be Proud Of Yourself – Till The Day You Die

~ HAM-WUACMTYEOLAW-IABBM ~ Having A Mate – Who Understands And Contributes Mightily To Your Ethos Of Life And Work – Is A Blessing Beyond Measure

~ AEDAIIYL ~ Attack Every Day As If It’s Your Last

~ EAPSDHCAI-IYCD-L-IWNOMYAPBCOYI-IWAMJTTWYS ~ Even A Passable Sketch Dramatically Helps Crystallize An Idea – If You Can’t Draw – Learn – It Will Not Only Make You A Profoundly Better Communicator Of Your Ideas – It Will Add More Joy To The Way You See

~ YCTACTWS ~ You Cannot Teach A Crab To Walk Straight

~ DLYTDYFYD-IYKCIO-TW-YL-DLSOWYH! ~ Don’t Let Your Tormentors Distract You From Your Destiny – If You Keep Chewing It Over – They Win – You Lose – Don’t Lose Sight Of Where You’re Headed!

~ MYSAMFWYA ~ Make Your Surroundings A Metaphor For Who You Are

~ EYM ~ Extoll Your Mentors

~ IYDBTACB-I-RT-C-YNUTPOGC ~ If You Don’t Believe That Advertising Can Be – Icon – Rather Than – Con – You’ll Never Understand The Potential Of Great Creativity

~ IWWDA? ~ Is What We Do Art?

~ I-Y-TAP-E-YTWC-A! ~ If – You’re – Talented And Passionate – Enough – You Too Will Create – Art!

~ YAYHWYC ~ You’re At Your Happiest When You’re Creating

~ W-S-E-N-K-THS ~ Work – Should – Ennoble – Not – Kill – The Human Spirit

~ YNBTCPYATBIYDKWIACF-YCCTFWKWCBI ~ You’ll Never Be The Creative Person You Aspire To Be If You Don’t Know Where It All Came From – You Can’t Create The Future Without Knowing What Came Before It

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ INFOTOPIA ~ 2006

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~ BTRATPCFTFT-WTI-IIETOTVAETCO-H-T-ACE-M-O-P ~ Both The Risk And The Promise Come From The Fact That – With The Internet – It Is Easy To Obtain The Views And Even The Collaboration Of – Hundreds – Thousands – And Conceivably Even – Millions – Of – People

~ E-L-MPCADSTIECOTOD-LTWE-UC-A-UE-B-ED-TI-AOEVEIIA-APLAGDFTDBOITOPH ~ Everyday – Like-Minded People Can And Do Sort Themselves Into Echo Chambers Of Their Own Design – Leading To Wild Errors – Undue Confidence – And – Unjustified Extremism – But – Every Day – The Internet – Also Offers Exceedingly Valuable Exercises In Information Aggregation – As People Learn A Great Deal From The Dispersed Bits Of Information That Other People Have

~ IC-CUIWWHOWWCAOWCAPU ~ Information Cocoons – Communications Universes In Which We Hear Only What We Choose And Only What Comforts And Pleases Us

~ ICBCFLAOTLI-IC-W-F-P-WESOV-B-MEATPOOC-FPAPI-CCTITN ~ It Can Be Comforting For Leaders And Others To Live In – Information Cocoons – Warm – Friendly – Places – Where Everyone Shares Our Views – But – Major Errors Are The Price Of Our Comfort – For Private And Public Institutions – Cocoons Can Turn Into Terrible Nightmares

~ DDALTBD?-OIDN-GMMIPOOA-LTEOTACOFRTT-‘G’-MWPUUADS-C-TFTCIAETROA ~ Does Deliberation Actually Lead To Better Decisions? – Often It Does Not – Group Members May Impose Pressures On One Another – Leading To Extremism Or To A Consensus On Falsehood Rather Than Truth – “Groupthink” – May Well Promote Unthinking Uniformity And Dangerous Self-Censorships – Thus Failing To Combine Information And Enlarge The Range Of Arguments

~ CGDBNISODBBOI-TPITDGODNOTKTTMAH ~ Countless Groups Do Badly Not In Spite Of Deliberation But Because Of It – The Problem Is That Deliberating Groups Often Do Not Obtain The Knowledge That Their Members Actually Have

~ TGLIT-PL-EATHL-OLIC-A-DPFLHTIS ~ The General Lesson Is That – Political Leaders – Even At The Highest Levels – Often Live In Cocoons – And – Deliberation Provides Far Less Help Than It Should

~ GOFPTASOP-TDNCBIAIE-TEIHBAOMATEOIHBAFOO-TFVTBOCE-I-DOFTAAGM ~ Groups Often Fall Prey To A Series Of Problems – They Do Not Correct But Instead Amplify Individual Errors – They Emphasize Information Held By All Or Most At The Expense Of Information Held By A Few Or One – They Fall Victim To Bandwagon Or Cascade Effects – Indeed – Deliberation Often Fails To Aggregate Among Group Members

~ AIH-TPPB-IPASI-AIAD-TIOMFJAMAP-NMJAF ~ As It Happens – The Problems Posed By – Informational Pressure And Social Influences – Apply In All Domains – They Infect Our Most Fundamental Judgments About Morality And Policy – Not Merely Judgments About Facts

~ TKP-IS-GWDBTI-A-BGBTLO-SLATCAM:MRIU-A-EPIMLTNTBC ~ The Key Point – Is That – Groups Will Do Better Than Individuals – And – Big Groups Better Than Little Ones – So Long As Two Conditions Are Met: Majority Rule Is Used – And – Each Person Is More Likely Than Not To Be Correct

~ FAOCW ~ Falsehoods Are Often Conventional Wisdom

~ ASBIOOADWCSPFTGA ~ A Systematic Bias In One Or Another Direction Will Create Serious Problems For The Group’s Answers

~ GMTTBALMCATJASWOA-AKEOGIIAGST-TPCIC-WONIAI ~ Group Members Tend To Become A Lot More Confident About Their Judgments After Speaking With One Another – A Key Effect Of Group Interaction Is A Greater Sense That – The Postdeliberation Conclusion Is Correct – Whether Or Not It Actually Is

~ MOTT-DGDQPAATITTMH-WMMGT-TOFTLNAMATM-RKIOIOD-AABIKIABAOMGMHAFGRTITIKBOOOAFGM ~ Much Of The Time – Deliberating Groups Do Quite Poorly At Aggregating The Information That Their Members Have – When Many Minds Get Together – They Often Fail To Learn Nearly As Much As They Might – Relevant Knowledge Is Often Ignored Or Downplayed – Above All Because Information Known In Advance By All Or Most Group Members Has A Far Greater Role Than Information That Is Known By Only One Of A Few Group Members

~ WSGDW-IIBPSWTT-B-WDG-TMNH-ETTVOOMLPTST-MPRDLBTSD-TDNWTLSORCT ~ When Statistical Groups Do Well – It Is Because People Say What They Think – But – With Deliberating Groups – This Might Not Happen – Exposure To The Views Of Others Might Lead People To Silence Themselves – Most People Really Don’t Like Being The Sole Dissenter – They Do Not Want To Look Stupid Or To Create Trouble

~ HP-TAUTGCOBDN-ACFOIA-A-TAATC ~ Hidden Profiles – The Accurate Understandings That Groups Could Obtain But Do Not – A Clear Failure Of Information Aggregation – And – They Are All Too Common

~ CKE-IHBAGMHFMIOGJTIHBOAFM ~ Common Knowledge Effect – Information Held By All Group Members Has Far More Influence On Group Judgments Than Information Held By Only A Few Members

~ GMTTBSMCATJAD-AEAF-B-CAEAABC ~ Group Members Tend To Be Significantly More Confident About Their Judgments After Discussion – An Especially Alarming Finding – Because – Confidence And Error Are A Bad Combination

~ TITGWAIOATTBLOTHAPLTETPHIADP-CPMHLIOTG ~ Those In The Group Who Are Inexperienced Or Are Thought To Be Low On The Hierarchy Are Particularly Loath To Emphasize Their Privately Held Information As Discussion Proceeds – Cognitively Peripheral Members Have Little Influence On The Group

~ IMDG-PWEUHITAOSR-ATKI ~ In Many Deliberating Groups – People Who Emphasize Uniquely Held Information Take An Obvious Social Risk – And They Know It

~ TDM-APCU-IWYCOTTAOTYL-PIATMP-IOGIA-BPITO ~ The Daily Me – A Personalized Communications Universe – In Which You Consult Only Those Topics And Opinions That You Like – Polarization Is All The More Probable – Instead Of Good Information Aggregation – Bad Polarization Is The Outcome

~ TFT-DIBCAU-WL-TSBPMI-TDHPSRTN ~ The Fact That – Deliberation Increase Both Confidence And Uniformity – Will Leave – The Strong But Potentially Misleading Impression – That Deliberation Has Produced Sense Rather Than Nonsense

~ MHTOFAF-A-PCBWO-B-AMCSIFROWIPAH-APMRHIADG-B-IAM-TWHI-UH-AIAPTMALOM-A-TALTETO ~ Markets Have Their Own Fads And Fashions – And – Prices Can Be Way Off – But – A Market Creates Strong Incentives For Revelation Of Whatever Information People Actually Hold – A Profile May Remain Hidden In A Deliberating Group – But – In A Market – Those With Hidden Information – Uniquely Held – Are In A Position To Make A Lot Of Money – And – They Are Likely To Exploit The Opportunity

~ TPA-O-TCPOEIORC-IOUPDBEGAF-IMC-TLNBTAE-BB-IPAATC-ABO-TSBOTTABS ~ Traditional Practices Are – Often – The Congealed Product Of Earlier Information Or Reputational Cascades – Inefficient Or Unjust Practices Defended By Entrenched Groups And Factions – In Many Cases – Traditions Last Not Because They Are Excellent – But Because – Influential People Are Averse To Change – And Because Of – The Sheer Burdens Of Transition To A Better State

MARY SHELLEY ~ FRANKENSTEIN ~ 1818

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~ TROGODWAPLABMFA-TFOWIMES ~ The Raising Of Ghosts Or Devils Was A Promise Liberally Accorded By My Favourite Authors – The Fulfillment Of Which I Most Eagerly Sought

~ IWRTECOBGFROLW ~ I Was Required To Exchange Chimeras Of Boundless Grandeur For Realities Of Little Worth

~ IBTCODSTTBCOL;ISHTWITWOTEAB ~ I Beheld The Corruption Of Death Succeed To The Blooming Cheek Of Life; I Saw How The Worm Inherited The Wonders Of The Eye And Brain

~ ISIDTCOGAL-IBMCOBAULM ~ I Succeeded In Discovering The Cause Of Generation And Life – I Became Myself Capable Of Bestowing Animation Upon Lifeless Matter

~ BTGOTH-EL-IS-TDYE-O-TC-O ~ By The Glimmer Of The Half-Extinguished Light – I Saw – The Dull Yellow Eye – Of – The Creature – Open

~ BNTIHF-TBOTDV-A-BHADFMH ~ But Now That I Had Finished – The Beauty Of The Dream Vanished – And – Breathless Horror And Disgust Filled My Heart

~ TDCTWIHSMGL ~ The Demoniacal Corpse To Which I Had So Miserably Given Life

~ O!-NMCSTHOTC-ATSAEDWNHC ~ Oh! – No Mortal Could Support The Horror Of That Countenance – A Thing Such As Even Dante Would Not Have Conceived

~ TW-TFD-TWIHGL ~ The Wretch – The Filthy Daemon – To Whom I Had Given Life

~ HWTM!-ICNDI-TMPOTIWAIPOTF ~ He Was The Murderer! – I Could Not Doubt It – The Mere Presence Of The Idea Was An Irresistible Proof Of The Fact

~ IHBTAOUE-A-ILIDF-L-TM-WIHC-SPSNW ~ I Had Been The Author Of Unalterable Evils – And – I Lived In Daily Fear – Lest – The Monster – Whom I Had Created – Should Perpetrate Some New Wickedness

~ IP-ATSCN-(STAA!)-TIW-TW-WIHC ~ I Perceived – As The Shape Came Nearer – (Sight Tremendous And Abhorred!) – That It Was – The Wretch – Whom I Had Created

~ HINSE-TYSTIMM? ~ Have I Not Suffered Enough – That You Seek To Increase My Misery?

~ L-AIMOBAAOA-I-DTM-A-IWDI ~ Life – Although It May Only Be An Accumulation Of Anguish – Is – Dear To Me – And – I Will Defend It

~ R-T-IATC ~ Remember – That – I Am Thy Creature

~ HCIMT?-WNECTTRAFEU-TC-WITGAC? ~ How Can I Move Thee? – Will No Entreaties Cause Thee To Run A Favourable Eye Upon – Thy Creature – Who Implores Thy Goodness And Compassion?

~ TF ~ The Fiend

~ WILA-ISAHONLM-WITAM-ABUTE-FWAMF-A-WAMD? ~ When I Looked Around – I Saw And Heard Of None Like Me – Was I Then A Monster – A Blot Upon The Earth – From Which All Men Fled – And – Whom All Men Disowned?

~ IHNYSABRM-O-WCAIWM-WWI?-TQ-AR-TBAOWG ~ I Had Never Yet Seen A Being Resembling Me – Or – Who Claimed Any Intercourse With Me – What Was I? – The Question – Again Recurred – To Be Answered Only With Groans

~ IEIA-CC!-WDYFAMSHTEYTFMID? ~ I Exclaimed In Agony – Cursed Creator! – Why Did You Form A Monster So Hideous That Even You Turned From Me In Disgust?

~ O!-MC-MMH;LMFGTYFOB!-LMSTIETSOSET ~ Oh! – My Creator – Make Me Happy; Let Me Feel Gratitude Towards You For One Benefit! – Let Me See That I Excite The Sympathy Of Some Existing Thing

~ HIAR-FMOB-TITCUEG? ~ Had I A Right – For My Own Benefit – To Inflict This Curse Upon Everlasting Generations?

~ ISTTTFAMCMATP-WSHNHTBIOPATPPOTEOTWHR ~ I Shuddered To Think That Future Ages Might Curse Me As Their Pest – Whose Selfishness Had Not Hesitated To Buy Its Own Peace At The Price Perhaps Of The Existence Of The Whole Human Race

~ MICUATITTASM ~ My Imagination Conjured Up A Thousand Images To Torment And Sting Me

~ TSTWIMLDUTGOADWIHMC ~ To See Those Whom I Most Loved Die Under The Grasp Of A Daemon Whom I Had Myself Created

~ NISPTTHMAAGASC ~ Nothing Is So Painful To The Human Mind As A Great And Sudden Change

~ P-P-LMM-DNSTIYO ~ Peace – Peace – Learn My Miseries – And – Do Not Seek To Increase Your Own

~ WY-IFAIIWDFSGE ~ When Younger – I Felt As If I Were Destined For Some Great Enterprise

~ IMPADTBTWIGE ~ I Must Pursue And Destroy The Being To Whom I Gave Existence

~ OMFWSWD-OV-OF-A-OE-OIFHTMWB-W-PMOF-WLMFTEQWIWCOBF ~ Once My Fancy Was Soothed With Dreams – Of Virtue – Of Fame – And – Of Enjoyment – Once I Falsely Hoped To Meet With Beings – Who – Pardoning My Outward Form – Would Love Me For The Excellent Qualities Which I Was Capable Of Bringing Forth

NASSIM TALEB ~ THE TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST SOCIETY ~ THE BLACK SWAN ~ 2017

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~ WIFSBE-WISS-NSEB-TBTF ~ What Is Fragile Should Break Early – While It’s Still Small – Nothing Should Ever Become – Too Big To Fail

~ NSOLAPOG-TWOCAS ~ No Socialization Of Losses And Privatization Of Gains – The Worst Of Capitalism And Socialism

~ DLSMA-‘I’-B-MANP-O-YFR-NIWD-CIARAP-NJR ~ Don’t Let Someone Making An – “Incentive” – Bonus – Manage A Nuclear Plant – Or – Your Financial Risks – No Incentives Without Disincentives – Capitalism Is About Rewards And Punishments – Not Just Rewards

~ CCWS ~ Compensate Complexity With Simplicity

~ DNGCDS-EITCWAWL-CFPNTBBBNUT-A-FARETKI ~ Do Not Give Children Dynamite Sticks – Even If They Come With A Warning Label – Complex Financial Products Need To Be Banned Because Nobody Understands Them – And – Few Are Rational Enough To Know It

~ OPSSDOC-GSNNT-‘RC’ ~ Only Ponzi Schemes Should Depend On Confidence – Governments Should Never Need To – “Restore Confidence”

~ DNGAAMDIH[/S]HWP-TDCINATP-IASO-WNR ~ Do Not Give An Addict More Drugs If He[/She] Has Withdrawal Pains – The Debt Crisis Is Not A Temporary Problem – It’s A Structural One – We Need Rehab

~ CSNDOFAAAROV-A-SNROF-‘E’-AFTR-ELSBD ~ Citizens Should Not Depend On Financial Assets As A Repository Of Value – And – Should Not Rely On Fallible – “Expert” – Advice For Their Retirement – Economic Life Should Be Definancialized

~ MAOWBE-LUMVIAREBHWNTBBBOIO-PBWTB ~ Make An Omelet With Broken Eggs – Let Us Move Voluntarily Into A Robust Economy By Helping What Needs To Be Broken Break On Its Own – Putting Bankers Where They Belong

NASSIM TALEB ~ THE BLACK SWAN ~ 2017

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~ IIOTTB-CDOA-B-WUC-‘CS’-AAT-PWT-TBIA ~ It Is One Thing To Be – Cosmetically Defiant Of Authority – By – Wearing Unconventional Clothes – “Cheap Signalling” – And Another To – Prove Willingness To – Translate Belief Into Action

~ THMSFTAAICICWH:TIOU-IAWTIMC(OR)TTR;TRD-HWCAMOATF;TOOFI-A-THOAALP ~ The Human Mind Suffers From Three Ailments As It Comes Into Contact With History: The Illusion Of Understanding – In A World That Is More Complicated (Or Random) Than They Realize; The Retrospective Distortion – How We Can Assess Matters Only After The Fact; The Overvaluation Of Factual Information – And – The Handicap Of Authoritative And Learned People

~ P-TDTCRICS ~ Platonicty – The Desire To Cut Reality Into Crisp Shapes

~ TPF-IWORORCTA-B-WDNKI ~ The Platonic Fold – Is Where Our Representation Of Reality Ceases To Apply – But – We Do Not Know It

~ IS-W-DRB ~ People In Suits – Who – Don’t Read Books

~ T:AF-TAE;TR-NTN ~ Today: A Few – Take Almost Everything; The Rest – Next To Nothing

TBSP:HCWKTF-GKOTP-O-MG-HCWFOPOT(I)UBOT(F)K-SHWITP-U-W-IUNLD-A-WWHLFTPTOTBAB-IOF-AW-VM ~ The Black Swan Problem: How Can We Know The Future – Given Knowledge Of The Past – Or – More Generally – How Can We Figure Out Properties Of The (Infinite) Unknown Based On The (Finite) Known – Something Has Worked In The Past – Until – Well – It Unexpectedly No Longer Does – And – What We Have Learned From The Past Turns Out To Be At Best – Irrelevant Or False – At Worse – Viciously Misleading

~ M-ANOOTP-AS-DOROTF-ITOAOC-OO-ITUTBS ~ Mistaking – A Naive Observation Of The Past – As Something – Definitive Or Representative Of The Future – Is The One And Only Cause – Of Our – Inability To Understand The Black Swan

~ WBMP-TGTB;WTAH-WPTC ~ When Bankers Make Profits – They Get The Benefits; When They Are Hurt – We Pay The Costs

~ ACTSB ~ Avoid Crossing The Street Blindfolded

~ CS! ~ Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

~ T-ITATKAS-FOSTA-O-FTTP-IAQDAOHN-T-D-S-OOR-OMOT-OI-DOTCIWTMIP-T-‘D’-OT-OOTE ~ The – Inability To Automatically Transfer Knowledge And Sophistication – From One Situation To Another – Or – From Theory To Practice – Is A Quite Disturbing Attribute Of Human Nature – The – Domain-Specificity – Of Our Reactions – Our Mode Of Thinking – Our Intuitions – Depend On The Context In Which The Matter Is Presented – The – “Domain” – Of The – Object Or The Event

~ AMM-NE-WHANTTLFITCOSAOVOTW-TIAAETF ~ A Mental Mechanism – Naive Empiricism – We Have A Natural Tendency To Look For Instance That Confirm Our Story And Our Vision Of The World – These Instances Are Always Easy To Find

~ MWTTCYTTSIUTS-BPOIWIPH-NTWIWAWOT-O-W-TNMATIASCOSOTTHUNOEMT ~ Mathematicians Will Try To Convince You That Their Science Is Useful To Society – By Pointing Out Instances Where It Proved Helpful – Not Those Where It Was A Waste Of Time – Or – Worse – Those Numerous Mathematical Applications That Inflicted A Severe Cost On Society Owing To The Highly Unempirical Nature Of Elegant Mathematical Theories

~ OYMIIW-ACVOTW-YWTTOCIPYTBR-P-TMIYH-TMJYWFIYV ~ Once Your Mind Is Inhabited With – A Certain View Of The World – You Will Tend To Only Consider Instances Proving You To Be Right – Paradoxically – The More Information You Have – The More Justified You Will Feel In Your Views

~ IWTBR ~ Information Wants To Be Reduced

~ U-A-TSPO-S-ITGTTT-NT-GYAFOOOMYFB ~ Unlike – Art – The Stated Purpose Of – Science – Is To Get To The Truth – Not To – Give You A Feeling Of Organization Or Make You Feel Better

~ WTTUKAT ~ We Tend To Use Knowledge As Therapy

~ WWTBTS-A-TINWWT-ETWSCMTWTSPCDOR ~ We Want To Be Told Stories – And – There Is Nothing Wrong With That – Except That We Should Check More Thoroughly Whether The Story Provides Consequential Distortions Of Reality

~ WDWA-BS-J-TWO ~ We Do Worry About – Black Swans – Just – The Wrong Ones

~ TWTA-TIO-TNF-ITF-EOS-EOH-A-CKOT ~ The Way To Avoid – The Ills Of – The Narrative Fallacy – Is To Favor – Experimentation Over Storytelling – Experience Over History – And – Clinical Knowledge Over Theories

~ LITAOH ~ Living In The Antechamber Of Hope

~ WASA-HIOP ~ We Are Social Animals – Hell Is Other People

~ LP-API-INTN ~ Linear Progression – A Platonic Idea – Is Not The Norm

~ BSDMOHH ~ Black Swans Dominate Much Of Human History

~ OOTAOABSIAAIC-EPON ~ One Of The Attributes Of A Black Swan Is An Asymmetry In Consequences – Either Positive Or Negative

~ BOBU ~ Bleed Or Blow Up

~ SE-PECTTNO-H ~ Silent Evidence – Pervades Everything Connected To The Notion Of – History

~ TUSAAWCT-WNTSTTPIF ~ To Understand Successes And Analyze What Caused Them – We Need To Study The Traits Present In Failures

~ WSTOAVC-N-TIALOO-YTUCCB-N-GA-MM ~ We See The Obvious And Visible Consequences – Not – The Invisible And Less Obvious Ones – Yet These Unseen Consequences Can Be – Nay – Generally Are – More Meaningful

~ TGOAMOSE:TIOS ~ The Gravest Of All Manifestations Of Silent Evidence: The Illusion Of Stability

~ TRPA:DNCO-FTVPOTWG-BF-ATWSITC ~ The Reference Point Argument: Do Not Compute Odds – From The Vantage Point Of The Winning Gambler – But From – All Those Who Started In The Cohort

~ OOS-OOM-WH-AN-EP-SOTA ~ Out Of Sight – Out Of Mind – We Harbor – A Natural – Even Physical – Scorn Of The Abstract

~ TLF:TAOTUWFIRLHLCTTSOWEIEAG ~ The Ludic Fallacy: The Attributes Of The Uncertainty We Face In Real Life Have Little Connection To The Sterilized Ones We Encounter In Exams And Games

~ TCOS-IP ~ The Club Of Single-Idea People

~ WN-C-RAUAA-WRWHH-IWCHH ~ We Need – Context – Randomness And Uncertainty Are Abstractions – We Respect What Has Happened – Ignoring What Could Have Happened

~ TYTSTDB-TSATE-P-N-N-ITRTOOUOTW ~ Train Yourself To Spot The Difference Between – The Sensational And The Empirical – Prediction – Not – Narration – Is The Real Test Of Our Understanding Of The World

~ TLTROTBS-THIWBFUTP-S ~ The Larger The Role Of The Black Swan – The Harder It Will Be For Us To Predict – Sorry

~ TES ~ The Empty Suit

~ YCIS-D-LOKADATQOYKCT-TSPTMYKLAMYSWYK ~ You Cannot Ignore Self-Delusion – Lack Of Knowledge And Delusion About The Quality Of Your Knowledge Come Together – The Same Process That Makes You Know Less Also Makes You Satisfied With Your Knowledge

~ T-‘AR’-D ~ The – “Almost Right” – Defense

~ T-TNOSOUOTPI ~ Tunnelling – The Neglect Of Sources Of Uncertainty Outside The Plan Itself

~ DCARIII(OA)FFD ~ Don’t Cross A River If It Is (On Average) Four Feet Deep

~ TOKEMTBBI ~ They Only Knew Enough Math To Be Blinded By It

~ TPCI ~ The Personal Crisis Industry

~ TWIOAAFU ~ The World Is Opaque And Appearances Fool Us

~ TM-WTTHIAOTAEOATBEWMT-TMWGIT ~ The More – We Try To Turn History Into Anything Other Than An Enumeration Of Accounts To Be Enjoyed With Minimal Theorizing – The More We Get Into Trouble

~ BAOTNEOMN ~ Be Aware Of The Numbing Effect Of Magic Numbers

~ IYHA-‘P’E-UTW-E-O-ND-DNAWH;JIH-O-TTPARDHS ~ If You Hear A – “Prominent” Economist – Using The World – Equilibrium – Or – Normal Distribution – Do Not Argue With Him; Just Ignore Him – Or – Try To Put A Rat Down His Shirt

~ WCTT-BS-I-GS-STS-RTSE ~ We Can Turn These – Black Swans – Into – Gray Swans – So To Speak – Reducing Their Surprise Effect

~ IPM-NTTT-EIDOS ~ I Promised Myself – Never To Teach Trash – Even If Dying Of Starvation

~ ASO ~ Academically Stamped Obscurantism

~ PWWAPIODCBDTS ~ People Who Worry About Pennies Instead Of Dollars Can Be Dangerous To Society

~ IIMDTBALIAGUSUY ~ It Is More Difficult To Be A Loser In A Game You Set Up Yourself

~ RTYAABS ~ Remember That You Are A Black Swan

~ A-TYFRMB ~ And – Thank You For Reading My Book

THOMAS FRANK ~ RENDEZVOUS WITH OBLIVION ~ 2018

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~ TFSBF ~ The First Shall Be First

~ TIWASLLWTGTHITSTD ~ This Is What A Society Looks Like When The Glue That Holds It Together Starts To Dissolve

~ HINLSTIOTP;ISM-OEICTSAA ~ Human Intellect No Longer Served The Interests Of The Public; It Served Money – Or Else It Ceased To Serve At All

~ YCHASAJ-TOP-MTU-OIYAFCT-M-TOPS-TDTPISNAIW-TRABTG-TETFROT-A-BDATP ~ You Can Have A Shot At Joining – The One Percent – Money Tells Us – Only If You Are First Committed To – Making The One Percent Stronger – To Defending Their Piles In Some New And Imaginative Way – To Rationalizing And Burnishing Their Glory – To Exempting Them From Regulation Or Taxation – And – Bowing Down As They Pass

~ YCBACOR-O ~ You Can’t Build A Civilization On Rip-Offs

~ WNTRTBN-WNTT-SD-PA-A-GG-NTTGHDFTEB ~ We Need The Rich To Be Nice – We Need Them To – Stop Doodling – Pay Attention – And – Get Generous – Now That The Government Has Divested From The Empathy Business

~ ARTF-ASS-ADWD ~ A Refusal To Fawn – A Servility Strike – A Day Without Deference

~ TAOI ~ The Architecture Of Inequality

~ TAPTEMTBUU ~ Things And People That Existed Merely To Be Used Up

~ TESTNE ~ The Economic Slump That Never Ends

~ ‘HW’A-A-‘HL’-AMNITW-CME ~ “Hard Work” – And – An – “Honest Living” – Actually Mean Nothing In This World – Capital Means Everything

~ SPDMBGCB:AOH0MPC-NPMTASW ~ Solemn Philosophical Declarations Made By Godlike Corporate Beings: Announcements Of High-Minded Public Concern – Noble Promise Made To A Suffering World

~ DYKWIA? ~ Do You Know Who I Am?

~ G-P-BB ~ Gold-Plated – Bureaucratic Buzzword

~ TSTF ~ Too Smart To Fail

~ OITGTSBGWAHOPABSIFTOB ~ Ours Is The Generation That Stood By Gawking While A Handful Of Parasites And Billionaires Smashed It For Their Own Benefit

~ WWD-ITTWUFTD ~ Whatever We Do – It’s Time To Wake Up From The Dream

~ DF ~ Debt Factory

~ TVCOTMC-CATNMOTFWETSDATBBTHOES-THPFTCOMAF-NWTE ~ The Very Cream Of The Meritocracy Crop – Count Among Their Number Many Of The Folks Who Engineered The Subprime Disaster And The Bank Bailouts That Haunt Our Economy Still – They Haven’t Paid For Those Crimes Of Misrepresentation And Fraud – Nor Will They Ever

~ O-RC-FILAET-SUIDAD-CFRW-B-A-IS-ISTAOTTPATB ~ Our Ruling Class – Flashing Its Legitimacy At Every Turn – Steers Us Into Disaster After Disaster – Cheering For Ruinous Wars – But – Accountability – It Seems – Is Something That Applies Only To The People At The Bottom

~ CC ~ Course Corrections

~ A-TW-O-DR-C-A-CR ~ A – Train Wreck – Of – Desperate Rationalizations – Cliches – And – Circular Reasoning

~ NTCI:WEBOESWE ~ Now Their Chant Is: We’re Experts Because Other Experts Say We’re Experts

~ IBEDMTGA ~ Ignoring Basic Economics Doesn’t Make Them Go Away

~ WDMOOIATWFWTHBTDBRAC-OEOIC ~ We Derive Much Of Our Information About The World From Websites That Have Blurred The Distinction Between Reporting And Commentary – Or Else Obliterated It Completely

~ WAWOCOSI? ~ Why Are Worshippers Of Competence Often So Incompetent?

~ NHWATF ~ Neoliberalism Has Well And Truly Failed

~ RWO ~ Rendezvous With Oblivion

~ ITA-OC-AB-NTM-AF-A-AC-A-EWTBL-IBWLMOTW ~ It Was All – Of Course – A Bubble – Not To Mention – A Fraud – And – A Con – And – Even While The Bubble Lasted – Its Benefits Were Lavished Mainly On The Wealthy

~ FOSW-A-ASFOM-DWE ~ Flat Or Sinking Wages – Are – A Standard Feature Of Modern-Day Western Economies