NASSIM TALEB ~ THE TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST SOCIETY ~ THE BLACK SWAN ~ 2017

~ WIFSBE-WISS-NSEB-TBTF ~ What Is Fragile Should Break Early – While It’s Still Small – Nothing Should Ever Become – Too Big To Fail

~ NSOLAPOG-TWOCAS ~ No Socialization Of Losses And Privatization Of Gains – The Worst Of Capitalism And Socialism

~ DLSMA-‘I’-B-MANP-O-YFR-NIWD-CIARAP-NJR ~ Don’t Let Someone Making An – “Incentive” – Bonus – Manage A Nuclear Plant – Or – Your Financial Risks – No Incentives Without Disincentives – Capitalism Is About Rewards And Punishments – Not Just Rewards

~ CCWS ~ Compensate Complexity With Simplicity

~ DNGCDS-EITCWAWL-CFPNTBBBNUT-A-FARETKI ~ Do Not Give Children Dynamite Sticks – Even If They Come With A Warning Label – Complex Financial Products Need To Be Banned Because Nobody Understands Them – And – Few Are Rational Enough To Know It

~ OPSSDOC-GSNNT-‘RC’ ~ Only Ponzi Schemes Should Depend On Confidence – Governments Should Never Need To – “Restore Confidence”

~ DNGAAMDIH[/S]HWP-TDCINATP-IASO-WNR ~ Do Not Give An Addict More Drugs If He[/She] Has Withdrawal Pains – The Debt Crisis Is Not A Temporary Problem – It’s A Structural One – We Need Rehab

~ CSNDOFAAAROV-A-SNROF-‘E’-AFTR-ELSBD ~ Citizens Should Not Depend On Financial Assets As A Repository Of Value – And – Should Not Rely On Fallible – “Expert” – Advice For Their Retirement – Economic Life Should Be Definancialized

~ MAOWBE-LUMVIAREBHWNTBBBOIO-PBWTB ~ Make An Omelet With Broken Eggs – Let Us Move Voluntarily Into A Robust Economy By Helping What Needs To Be Broken Break On Its Own – Putting Bankers Where They Belong

NASSIM TALEB ~ THE BLACK SWAN ~ 2017

~ IIOTTB-CDOA-B-WUC-‘CS’-AAT-PWT-TBIA ~ It Is One Thing To Be – Cosmetically Defiant Of Authority – By – Wearing Unconventional Clothes – “Cheap Signalling” – And Another To – Prove Willingness To – Translate Belief Into Action

~ THMSFTAAICICWH:TIOU-IAWTIMC(OR)TTR;TRD-HWCAMOATF;TOOFI-A-THOAALP ~ The Human Mind Suffers From Three Ailments As It Comes Into Contact With History: The Illusion Of Understanding – In A World That Is More Complicated (Or Random) Than They Realize; The Retrospective Distortion – How We Can Assess Matters Only After The Fact; The Overvaluation Of Factual Information – And – The Handicap Of Authoritative And Learned People

~ P-TDTCRICS ~ Platonicty – The Desire To Cut Reality Into Crisp Shapes

~ TPF-IWORORCTA-B-WDNKI ~ The Platonic Fold – Is Where Our Representation Of Reality Ceases To Apply – But – We Do Not Know It

~ IS-W-DRB ~ People In Suits – Who – Don’t Read Books

~ T:AF-TAE;TR-NTN ~ Today: A Few – Take Almost Everything; The Rest – Next To Nothing

TBSP:HCWKTF-GKOTP-O-MG-HCWFOPOT(I)UBOT(F)K-SHWITP-U-W-IUNLD-A-WWHLFTPTOTBAB-IOF-AW-VM ~ The Black Swan Problem: How Can We Know The Future – Given Knowledge Of The Past – Or – More Generally – How Can We Figure Out Properties Of The (Infinite) Unknown Based On The (Finite) Known – Something Has Worked In The Past – Until – Well – It Unexpectedly No Longer Does – And – What We Have Learned From The Past Turns Out To Be At Best – Irrelevant Or False – At Worse – Viciously Misleading

~ M-ANOOTP-AS-DOROTF-ITOAOC-OO-ITUTBS ~ Mistaking – A Naive Observation Of The Past – As Something – Definitive Or Representative Of The Future – Is The One And Only Cause – Of Our – Inability To Understand The Black Swan

~ WBMP-TGTB;WTAH-WPTC ~ When Bankers Make Profits – They Get The Benefits; When They Are Hurt – We Pay The Costs

~ ACTSB ~ Avoid Crossing The Street Blindfolded

~ CS! ~ Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

~ T-ITATKAS-FOSTA-O-FTTP-IAQDAOHN-T-D-S-OOR-OMOT-OI-DOTCIWTMIP-T-‘D’-OT-OOTE ~ The – Inability To Automatically Transfer Knowledge And Sophistication – From One Situation To Another – Or – From Theory To Practice – Is A Quite Disturbing Attribute Of Human Nature – The – Domain-Specificity – Of Our Reactions – Our Mode Of Thinking – Our Intuitions – Depend On The Context In Which The Matter Is Presented – The – “Domain” – Of The – Object Or The Event

~ AMM-NE-WHANTTLFITCOSAOVOTW-TIAAETF ~ A Mental Mechanism – Naive Empiricism – We Have A Natural Tendency To Look For Instance That Confirm Our Story And Our Vision Of The World – These Instances Are Always Easy To Find

~ MWTTCYTTSIUTS-BPOIWIPH-NTWIWAWOT-O-W-TNMATIASCOSOTTHUNOEMT ~ Mathematicians Will Try To Convince You That Their Science Is Useful To Society – By Pointing Out Instances Where It Proved Helpful – Not Those Where It Was A Waste Of Time – Or – Worse – Those Numerous Mathematical Applications That Inflicted A Severe Cost On Society Owing To The Highly Unempirical Nature Of Elegant Mathematical Theories

~ OYMIIW-ACVOTW-YWTTOCIPYTBR-P-TMIYH-TMJYWFIYV ~ Once Your Mind Is Inhabited With – A Certain View Of The World – You Will Tend To Only Consider Instances Proving You To Be Right – Paradoxically – The More Information You Have – The More Justified You Will Feel In Your Views

~ IWTBR ~ Information Wants To Be Reduced

~ U-A-TSPO-S-ITGTTT-NT-GYAFOOOMYFB ~ Unlike – Art – The Stated Purpose Of – Science – Is To Get To The Truth – Not To – Give You A Feeling Of Organization Or Make You Feel Better

~ WTTUKAT ~ We Tend To Use Knowledge As Therapy

~ WWTBTS-A-TINWWT-ETWSCMTWTSPCDOR ~ We Want To Be Told Stories – And – There Is Nothing Wrong With That – Except That We Should Check More Thoroughly Whether The Story Provides Consequential Distortions Of Reality

~ WDWA-BS-J-TWO ~ We Do Worry About – Black Swans – Just – The Wrong Ones

~ TWTA-TIO-TNF-ITF-EOS-EOH-A-CKOT ~ The Way To Avoid – The Ills Of – The Narrative Fallacy – Is To Favor – Experimentation Over Storytelling – Experience Over History – And – Clinical Knowledge Over Theories

~ LITAOH ~ Living In The Antechamber Of Hope

~ WASA-HIOP ~ We Are Social Animals – Hell Is Other People

~ LP-API-INTN ~ Linear Progression – A Platonic Idea – Is Not The Norm

~ BSDMOHH ~ Black Swans Dominate Much Of Human History

~ OOTAOABSIAAIC-EPON ~ One Of The Attributes Of A Black Swan Is An Asymmetry In Consequences – Either Positive Or Negative

~ BOBU ~ Bleed Or Blow Up

~ SE-PECTTNO-H ~ Silent Evidence – Pervades Everything Connected To The Notion Of – History

~ TUSAAWCT-WNTSTTPIF ~ To Understand Successes And Analyze What Caused Them – We Need To Study The Traits Present In Failures

~ WSTOAVC-N-TIALOO-YTUCCB-N-GA-MM ~ We See The Obvious And Visible Consequences – Not – The Invisible And Less Obvious Ones – Yet These Unseen Consequences Can Be – Nay – Generally Are – More Meaningful

~ TGOAMOSE:TIOS ~ The Gravest Of All Manifestations Of Silent Evidence: The Illusion Of Stability

~ TRPA:DNCO-FTVPOTWG-BF-ATWSITC ~ The Reference Point Argument: Do Not Compute Odds – From The Vantage Point Of The Winning Gambler – But From – All Those Who Started In The Cohort

~ OOS-OOM-WH-AN-EP-SOTA ~ Out Of Sight – Out Of Mind – We Harbor – A Natural – Even Physical – Scorn Of The Abstract

~ TLF:TAOTUWFIRLHLCTTSOWEIEAG ~ The Ludic Fallacy: The Attributes Of The Uncertainty We Face In Real Life Have Little Connection To The Sterilized Ones We Encounter In Exams And Games

~ TCOS-IP ~ The Club Of Single-Idea People

~ WN-C-RAUAA-WRWHH-IWCHH ~ We Need – Context – Randomness And Uncertainty Are Abstractions – We Respect What Has Happened – Ignoring What Could Have Happened

~ TYTSTDB-TSATE-P-N-N-ITRTOOUOTW ~ Train Yourself To Spot The Difference Between – The Sensational And The Empirical – Prediction – Not – Narration – Is The Real Test Of Our Understanding Of The World

~ TLTROTBS-THIWBFUTP-S ~ The Larger The Role Of The Black Swan – The Harder It Will Be For Us To Predict – Sorry

~ TES ~ The Empty Suit

~ YCIS-D-LOKADATQOYKCT-TSPTMYKLAMYSWYK ~ You Cannot Ignore Self-Delusion – Lack Of Knowledge And Delusion About The Quality Of Your Knowledge Come Together – The Same Process That Makes You Know Less Also Makes You Satisfied With Your Knowledge

~ T-‘AR’-D ~ The – “Almost Right” – Defense

~ T-TNOSOUOTPI ~ Tunnelling – The Neglect Of Sources Of Uncertainty Outside The Plan Itself

~ DCARIII(OA)FFD ~ Don’t Cross A River If It Is (On Average) Four Feet Deep

~ TOKEMTBBI ~ They Only Knew Enough Math To Be Blinded By It

~ TPCI ~ The Personal Crisis Industry

~ TWIOAAFU ~ The World Is Opaque And Appearances Fool Us

~ TM-WTTHIAOTAEOATBEWMT-TMWGIT ~ The More – We Try To Turn History Into Anything Other Than An Enumeration Of Accounts To Be Enjoyed With Minimal Theorizing – The More We Get Into Trouble

~ BAOTNEOMN ~ Be Aware Of The Numbing Effect Of Magic Numbers

~ IYHA-‘P’E-UTW-E-O-ND-DNAWH;JIH-O-TTPARDHS ~ If You Hear A – “Prominent” Economist – Using The World – Equilibrium – Or – Normal Distribution – Do Not Argue With Him; Just Ignore Him – Or – Try To Put A Rat Down His Shirt

~ WCTT-BS-I-GS-STS-RTSE ~ We Can Turn These – Black Swans – Into – Gray Swans – So To Speak – Reducing Their Surprise Effect

~ IPM-NTTT-EIDOS ~ I Promised Myself – Never To Teach Trash – Even If Dying Of Starvation

~ ASO ~ Academically Stamped Obscurantism

~ PWWAPIODCBDTS ~ People Who Worry About Pennies Instead Of Dollars Can Be Dangerous To Society

~ IIMDTBALIAGUSUY ~ It Is More Difficult To Be A Loser In A Game You Set Up Yourself

~ RTYAABS ~ Remember That You Are A Black Swan

~ A-TYFRMB ~ And – Thank You For Reading My Book

THOMAS FRANK ~ RENDEZVOUS WITH OBLIVION ~ 2018

~ TFSBF ~ The First Shall Be First

~ TIWASLLWTGTHITSTD ~ This Is What A Society Looks Like When The Glue That Holds It Together Starts To Dissolve

~ HINLSTIOTP;ISM-OEICTSAA ~ Human Intellect No Longer Served The Interests Of The Public; It Served Money – Or Else It Ceased To Serve At All

~ YCHASAJ-TOP-MTU-OIYAFCT-M-TOPS-TDTPISNAIW-TRABTG-TETFROT-A-BDATP ~ You Can Have A Shot At Joining – The One Percent – Money Tells Us – Only If You Are First Committed To – Making The One Percent Stronger – To Defending Their Piles In Some New And Imaginative Way – To Rationalizing And Burnishing Their Glory – To Exempting Them From Regulation Or Taxation – And – Bowing Down As They Pass

~ YCBACOR-O ~ You Can’t Build A Civilization On Rip-Offs

~ WNTRTBN-WNTT-SD-PA-A-GG-NTTGHDFTEB ~ We Need The Rich To Be Nice – We Need Them To – Stop Doodling – Pay Attention – And – Get Generous – Now That The Government Has Divested From The Empathy Business

~ ARTF-ASS-ADWD ~ A Refusal To Fawn – A Servility Strike – A Day Without Deference

~ TAOI ~ The Architecture Of Inequality

~ TAPTEMTBUU ~ Things And People That Existed Merely To Be Used Up

~ TESTNE ~ The Economic Slump That Never Ends

~ ‘HW’A-A’HL’-AMNITW-CME ~ “Hard Work” – And – An “Honest Living” – Actually Mean Nothing In This World – Capital Means Everything

~ SPDMBGCB:AOH0MPC-NPMTASW ~ Solemn Philosophical Declarations Made By Godlike Corporate Beings: Announcements Of High-Minded Public Concern – Noble Promise Made To A Suffering World

~ DYKWIA? ~ Do You Know Who I Am?

~ G-P-BB ~ Gold-Plated – Bureaucratic Buzzword

~ TSTF ~ Too Smart To Fail

~ OITGTSBGWAHOPABSIFTOB ~ Ours Is The Generation That Stood By Gawking While A Handful Of Parasites And Billionaires Smashed It For Their Own Benefit

~ WWD-ITTWUFTD ~ Whatever We Do – It’s Time To Wake Up From The Dream

~ DF ~ Debt Factory

~ TVCOTMC-CATNMOTFWETSDATBBTHOES-THPFTCOMAF-NWTE ~ The Very Cream Of The Meritocracy Crop – Count Among Their Number Many Of The Folks Who Engineered The Subprime Disaster And The Bank Bailouts That Haunt Our Economy Still – They Haven’t Paid For Those Crimes Of Misrepresentation And Fraud – Nor Will They Ever

~ O-RC-FILAET-SUIDAD-CFRW-B-A-IS-ISTAOTTPATB ~ Our Ruling Class – Flashing Its Legitimacy At Every Turn – Steers Us Into Disaster After Disaster – Cheering For Ruinous Wars – But – Accountability – It Seems – Is Something That Applies Only To The People At The Bottom

~ CC ~ Course Corrections

~ A-TW-O-DR-C-A-CR ~ A – Train Wreck – Of – Desperate Rationalizations – Cliches – And – Circular Reasoning

~ NTCI:WEBOESWE ~ Now Their Chant Is: We’re Experts Because Other Experts Say We’re Experts

~ IBEDMTGA ~ Ignoring Basic Economics Doesn’t Make Them Go Away

~ WDMOOIATWFWTHBTDBRAC-OEOIC ~ We Derive Much Of Our Information About The World From Websites That Have Blurred The Distinction Between Reporting And Commentary – Or Else Obliterated It Completely

~ WAWOCOSI? ~ Why Are Worshippers Of Competence Often So Incompetent?

~ NHWATF ~ Neoliberalism Has Well And Truly Failed

~ RWO ~ Rendezvous With Oblivion

~ ITA-OC-AB-NTM-AF-A-AC-A-EWTBL-IBWLMOTW ~ It Was All – Of Course – A Bubble – Not To Mention – A Fraud – And – A Con – And – Even While The Bubble Lasted – Its Benefits Were Lavished Mainly On The Wealthy

~ FOSW-A-ASFOM-DWE ~ Flat Or Sinking Wages – Are – A Standard Feature Of Modern-Day Western Economies