THOMAS HOMER-DIXON ~ THE UPSIDE OF DOWN ~ 2006

~ W-STCMABD-AW-IITKWSTMAWD-PTFBFD-TIETOHA ~ When – Small Things Can Make A Big Difference – And When – It’s Impossible To Know Which Small Things Matter And Which Don’t – Predicting The Future Becomes Formidably Difficult – This Is Especially True Of Human Affairs

~ TBO-CS-H-S/E/P-IOES-T-S-T-F-A-TWOL-AT-S-T/E/P/E-D ~ The Behavior Of – Complex Systems – Human – Social / Economic / Political – Is Often Extremely Sensitive – To – Serendipity – To – Fad – And – The Whims Of Leadership – And To – Sudden – Technological / Economic / Political / Environmental – Developments

~ WCKE-WOH-A-CS-TCAOL-WCA-CT-A-FTANMOB ~ We Can’t Know Exactly – When Or How – Any – Complex System – That Crucially Affects Our Lives – Will Cross A – Critical Threshold – And – Flip To A New Mode Of Behavior

~TWEHN-PB ~ The World Economy Has No – Plan B

~ ‘ST’-ADIOPOAEOSCD-AOU-ISIOP-LTCOEOSC ~ “Stress Triggering” – A Disturbance In One Part Of An Economy Or Society Can Dramatically – And Often Unexpectedly – Increase Stress In Other Parts – Leading To Cascades Of Economic Or Social Change

~ IPC-ASAPMAACALPOT-L/W/F-WMPHATVL-TWE-HLII-ROPTL-STLB-EDATSROC ~ In Poor Countries – A Small And Powerful Minority Almost Always Controls A Large Portion Of The – Land / Water / Forests – While Most People Have Access To Very Little – The Wealthy Elites – Have Little Interest In – Replanting Or Protecting The Land – So They Leave Behind – Ecological Devastation And The Shattered Remnants Of Communities

~ LNO-RPP-W-CGT-C/W/FW-TN-BTRADOBECT-MTTSNEMCIPC ~ Large Numbers Of – Rural Poor People – Who – Can’t Get The – Cropland / Water / Fuel Wood – They Need – Because These Resources Are Degraded Or Because Elites Control Them – Move To The Slums Now Engulfing Most Cities In Poor Countries

~ WNSLIONASPWOTTWBA-PF ~ We’re Now So Large In Our Numbers And So Powerful With Our Technologies That We’ve Become A – Planetary Force

~ ALFAW-WCGGWFO-B-DDNC ~ At Least For A While – We Can Generate Great Wealth For Ourselves – By – Drawing Down Nature’s Capital

~ P-B/W/F/B-STBISD ~ Pollinators – Bees / Wasps / Flies / Butterflies – Seem To Be In Steep Decline

~ MOO-EE-RHQATPEW-BISTS-A-BTGBTTATSTT-S-I/G/D-TCTOAAEFSVACOMITRUSOOS ~ Members Of Our – Economic Elite – Rarely Have Qualms About The Prevailing Economic Worldview – Because It Sustains Their Status – And – Because They Generally Believe That They’ve Achieved That Status Through Their – Superior – Intelligence / Guts / Drive – The Conviction That One’s Advantages Are Entirely Fair Seems Virtually A Condition Of Membership In The Rarefied Upper Strata Of Our Societies

~ TS-LAP-IONAMDW-H-WNTOOMTTPOFCIOL ~ To Survive – Let Alone Prosper – In Our New And More Dangerous World – However – We Need To Open Our Minds To The Possibility Of Fundamental Change In Our Lives

~ SORTTPBITC ~ Societies Often Respond To Their Problems By Increasing Their Complexity

~ WAFEECE-WMAAHATITAFTE ~ When A Favorite Explanation Encounters Contradictory Evidence – We Make An Ad Hoc Adjustment To It To Account For This Evidence

~ WO-IEME-TM-APOTWTAVWR ~ We Often – Invest Enormous Mental Energy – To Maintain – A Perspective On The World That’s At Variance With Reality

~ OCSODATSOOS-AAABPSITBFTSQ-KUFRSWHORCOPOWMF ~ Our Chronic State Of Denial About The Seriousness Of Our Situation – Aided And Abetted By Powerful Special Interests That Benefit From The Status Quo – Keeps Us From Really Seeing What’s Happening Or Really Considering Other Paths Our World Might Follow

~ EEIETSR ~ Exuberant Experimentation – Is Essential To – Social Resilience

~ ALASMCIITPIAS-B-IMCBRAPATPE ~ A Large And Successful Middle Class Is Important To Peace In Any Society – Because – It Moderates Conflict Between Rich And Poor And Tempers Political Extremism

~ WO-I/H/S-TT-WSHD-O-NE-EM-PI-A-OCAGA-ID? ~ Will Our – Incaution / Hubris / Stupidity – Transform Things – We Should Hold Dear – Our – Natural Environment – Engineering Marvels – Political Institutions – And – Our Culture And Great Art – Into Dust?

~ OCITPTSQ-BR-TAT-TI-A-SFTB-AWOCC ~ Our Challenge Isn’t To Preserve The Status Quo – But Rather – To Adapt To – Thrive In – And – Shape For The Better – A World Of Constant Change

~ IEEITW-TPOH-BE-FTI-EATFOGWL-TC-T-O-CAG ~ In Every Economy In The World – The Price Of Hydrocarbon-Based Energy – Fails To Incorporate – Even A Tiny Fraction Of Global Warning’s Long-Term Cost – To – Our Children And Grandchildren

~ WNTBCW-CC-RS-AE-B-B-TANIFOOW-A-WMCAAWVOF ~ We Need To Be Comfortable With – Constant Change – Radical Surprise – And Even – Breakdown – Because – These Are Now Inevitable Features Of Our World – And – We Must Constantly Anticipate A Wide Variety Of Futures

~ WNTEOISTWCCTUACTI ~ We Need To Exercise Our Imaginations So That We Can Challenge The Unchallengeable And Conceive The Inconceivable

~ I-AIUADW-WSSGU-EEAP-IOTG-R ~ In – An Increasingly Uncertain And Dangerous World – We Should Sometimes Give Up – Extra Efficiency And Productivity – In Order To Gain – Resilience

~ WCKEW-B-WLL-A-WDKWIWH-B-WCSSFONHWR ~ We Can’t Know Exactly What – Breakdown – Will Look Like – And – We Don’t Know When It Will Happen – But – We Can Still Start Figuring Out Now How We’ll Respond

~ PWAEFAHDIAKOPSWE ~ People Who Aren’t Extremists Face A Huge Disadvantage In Any Kind Of Political Struggle With Extremists

~ ARO-GP-ANR-TO-T-PP-FWCO-V/I/P-SB-SU-A-BW-DMI ~ At Root Our – Global Problems – Are Not Really – Technical Ones – They’re – Political Problems – Fraught With Conflicts Over – Values / Interests / Power – Surrounded By – Scientific Uncertainty – And – Burdened With – Deep Moral Implications

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