ROLF DOBELLI ~ THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY ~ 2013 ~ [TRANSLATION ~ NICKY GRIFFIN ~ 2013]

~ WN-NEC-NNI-NUG-NFH-AWNILI ~ We Need – No Extra Cunning – No New Ideas – No Unnecessary Gadgets – No Frantic Hyperactivity – All We Need Is Less Irrationality

~ SB-BTIMMVTF-PSOTCOS-GAIBFVTGO-O-P-P/I/C ~ Survivorship Bias – Because Triumph Is Made More Visible Than Failure – People Systematically Overestimate Their Chances Of Success – Guard Against It By Frequently Visiting The Graves Of – Once-Promising – Projects / Investment / Careers

~ CI-WICT-PR-WAO-RYS-FC-PC ~ Clustering Illusion – When It Comes To – Pattern Recognition – We Are Oversensitive – Regain Your Skepticism – First Consider – Pure Chance

~ SP-TMPWFACI-TB(T)WDTITB-TIOC-A ~ Social Proof – The More People Who Follow A Certain Idea – The Better (Truer) We Deem The Idea To Be – This Is Of Course – Absurd

~ SCF-T/M/E/L-TMWI-TGTSCA-A-TGTUTCB-ANFC-LT-C-E-D-EOJ-NMHMYHAI-OYAOTFCABC ~ Sunk Cost Fallacy – Time / Money / Energy / Love – The More We Invest – The Greater The Sunk Costs Are – And – The Greater The Urge To Continue Becomes – A Need For Consistency – Leads To – Costly – Even – Disastrous – Errors Of Judgment – No Matter How Much You Have Already Invested – Only Your Assessment Of The Future Costs And Benefits Counts

~ R-PHEDBIAPD ~ Reciprocity – People Have Extreme Difficulty Being In Another Person’s Debt

~ CB-TTTINISTIBCWO-E-T/B/C-TIADP

~ Confirmation Bias – The Tendency To Interpret New Information So That It Becomes Compatible With Our – Existing – Theories / Beliefs / Convictions – This Is A Dangerous Practice

~ AB-WYAATMAD-TAWAFMBEAIOYR ~ Authority Bias – Whenever You Are About To Make A Decision – Think About Which Authority Figures Might Be Exerting An Influence On Your Reasoning

~ CE-WDN-S-G-C ~ Contrast Effect – We Don’t Notice – Small – Gradual – Changes

~ AB-WCAPOTW-UTETMECTM ~ Availability Bias – We Create A Picture Of The World – Using The Examples That Most Easily Come To Mind

~ ISI-ROE-IGSATFOOM-IDEHTBT ~ If Something Is – Repeated Often Enough – It Gets Stored At The Forefront Of Our Minds – It Doesn’t Even Have To Be True

~ SB-S-TGUA-FSOU-WIL-T-BR ~ Story Bias – Stories – They Give Us A – False Sense Of Understanding – Which Inevitably Leads – To – Bigger Risks

~ HB-IR-ESCAI-IMUBWABPTWAA-CUTBAAOK-A-C-TTTMR ~ Hindsight Bias – In Retrospect – Everything Seems Clear And Inevitable – It Makes Us Believe We Are Better Predictors Than We Actually Are – Causing Us To Be Arrogant About Our Knowledge – And – Consequentially – To Take Too Much Risk

~ W-S-O-O-K-A-ATP-OAMS ~ We – Systematically – Overestimate – Our – Knowledge – And – Ability To Predict – On A Massive Scale

~ CK-DNC-T-CS-T-R-T-N-T-S-T-VV-O-T-CG-WTW-PTK ~ Chauffeur Knowledge – Do Not Confuse – The – Company Spokesperson – The – Ringleader – The – Newscaster – The – Schmoozer – The – Verbiage Vendor – Or – The – Cliche Generator – With Those Who – Possess True Knowledge

~ IOC-TTTBTWCISOWWHANS ~ Illusion Of Control – The Tendency To Believe That We Can Influence Something Over Which We Have Absolutely No Sway

~ ‘PB’ ~ “Placebo Buttons”

~ OB-WTTE-D-BOT-R-RTOT-DP ~ Outcome Bias – We Tend To Evaluate – Decisions – Based On The – Result – Rather Than On The – Decision Process

~ LIM-POC-A-TIAL-WIIE-ASOCDQOL-HCYBSYAMTRC? ~ Less Is More – Paradox Of Choice – Abundance – There Is A Limit – When It Is Exceeded – A Surfeit Of Choices Destroys Quality Of Life – How Can You Be Sure You Are Making The Right Choice?

~ LB-TMWLS-TMIWAT-H-TP ~ Liking Bias – The More We Like Someone – The More Inclined We Are To – Help – That Person

~ AJAP-IOWISI ~ Always Judge A Product – Independent Of Who Is Selling It

~ EE-WCTTBMVTMWOT ~ Endowment Effect – We Consider Things To Be More Valuable The Moment We Own Them

~ DCTT-CYPSTT-‘U’-HBTY-T-KIMTICRT(OM)-ITBOAE ~ Don’t Cling To Things – Consider Your Property Something That The – “Universe” – Has Bestowed To You – Temporarily – Keep In Mind That It Can Recoup This (Or More) – In The Blink Of An Eye

~ GT-IYEFYIAT-UG-YMSYM-EIYTDNLI-QTA-EIYREFTWN ~ GroupThink – If You Ever Find Yourself In A Tight – Unanimous Group – You Must Speak Your Mind – Even If Your Team Does Not Like It – Question Tacit Assumptions – Even If You Risk Expulsion From The Warm Nest

~ NOP-WHNIGO-R-AT-DPADT ~ Neglect Of Probability – We Have No Intuitive Grasp Of – Risk – And Thus – Distinguish Poorly Among Different Threats

~ SE-TTRTS-I-ALICT ~ Scarcity Error – The Typical Response To Scarcity – Is – A Lapse In Clear Thinking

~ GF-ACAIAII-TISN-BF ~ Gambler’s Fallacy – As Comforting An Idea As It Is – There Is Simply No – Balancing Force

~ LA-TFO-LS-MPMTTPO-GS-O-EV ~ Loss Aversion – The Fear Of – Losing Something – Motivates People More Than The Prospect Of – Gaining Something– Of – Equal Value

~ WHBTD-‘DOR’-FTSR-TTTTBRTTMWTOTO ~ We Hide Behind Team Decisions – “Diffusion Of Responsibility” – For The Same Reason – Teams Tend To Take Bigger Risks Than Their Members Would Take On Their Own

~ TDOGCBMBMIPAVAP ~ The Disadvantages Of Groups Can Be Mitigated By Making Individual Performances As Visible As Possible

~ CINC-SWIPA-TC-TOTB-TE-A-VV-A-S-TINLAA ~ Correlation Is Not Causality – Sometimes What Is Presented As – The Cause – Turns Out To Be – The Effect – And – Vice Versa – And – Sometimes – There Is No Link At All

~ HE-WA-SA-DU-A-AHWSTFP-OOVOTC-TCT-GBFV-DD-ITTTDSR ~ Halo Effect – When A – Single Aspect – Dazzles Us – And – Affects How We See The Full Picture – Obstructs Our View Of True Characteristics – To Counteract This – Go Beyond Face Value – Dig Deeper – Invest The Time To Do Serious Research

~ F-WRDTIS-DOHTAP ~ Framing – We React Differently To Identical Situations – Depending On How They Are Presented

~ AB-LA-EIIAN-AWASI-NOU-I-NOSC-WFCTDS-A ~ Action Bias – Look Active – Even If It Achieves Nothing – Accentuated When A Situation Is – New Or Unclear – In – New Or Shaky Circumstances – We Feel Compelled To Do Something – Anything

~ S-SB-WASTOAFTEF ~ Self-Serving Bias – We Attribute Success To Ourselves And Failure To External Factors

~ ISPAATTW-‘B’-NLHW-‘B’-TULWGTWOHI ~ It Seems People Are Addicted To The Word – “Because” – Never Leave Home Without – “Because” – This Unassuming Little Word Greases The Wheels Of Human Interaction

~ M-DNAM-IMC-IDJTO ~ Money – Does Not Always Motivate – In Many Cases – It Does Just The Opposite

~ IB-TDTMIGBD ~ Information Bias – The Delusion That More Information Guarantees Better Decisions

~ TBWT-SYFNS-IT-AT ~ The Best Way To – Shield Yourself From Nasty Surprises – Is To – Anticipate Them

~ WWLION-WA-POOE-WM-CD-B-CO-F-NO-T ~ Whether We Like It Or Not – We Are – Puppets Of Our Emotions – We Make – Complex Decisions – By – Consulting Our – Feelings – Not Our – Thoughts

~ TBTRLTTOA-TII-NIMCTOOB-WBTIUGS-K-RYIOWTSSACFSRP-BYOTC ~ The Belief That Reflection Leads To Truth Or Accuracy – The Introspection Illusion – Nothing Is More Convincing Than Our Own Beliefs – We Believe That Introspection Unearths Genuine Self-Knowledge – Regard Your Internal Observations With The Same Skepticism As Claims From Some Random Person – Become Your Own Toughest Critic

~ MDANWE-EWTHSTTSE ~ Most Doors Are Not Worth Entering – Even When The Handle Seems To Turn So Effortlessly

~ TIAGAOTEOTI ~ The Inept Are Gifted At Overlooking The Extent Of Their Incompetence

~ BS-DTT-SS-E ~ Book Smarts – Don’t Transfer To – Street Smarts – Easily

~ S-C-NTTR ~ Self-Control – Needs Time To Refuel

~ PATS-AMAY-RTN ~ Pay Attention To Silences – As Much As You – Respond To Noises

~ CTP-NJTC ~ Check The Periphery – Not Just The Center

~ EAATCBSWTETK ~ Expect An Approach That Can Be Solved With The Expert’s Tool Kit

~ C-P-DTB-EATA ~ Cherry-Picking – Drawing The Bull’s-Eye Around The Arrow

~ TCA-WIA-TFOK-C-‘N’ ~ Two Centuries Ago – We Invented A – Toxic Form Of Knowledge – Called – “News”

~ Y-NBBFUTW ~ Yes – Nothing Beats Books For Understanding The World

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