DAVID ORRELL ~ METHODS OF DIVINATION ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ A-AC ~ Aeromancy – Atmospheric Conditions

~ A-SAP ~ Astrology – Stars And Planets

~ B-POST ~ Bibilomancy – Passages Of Sacred Texts

~ B-MM ~ Biology – Mathematical Models

~ C-TC ~ Cartomancy – Tarot Cards

~ C-LAT ~ Ceraunoscopy – Lightening And Thunder

~ C-PR ~ Chiromancy – Palm Reading

~ C-D/L ~ Cleromancy – Dice / Lots

~ C-CB ~ Crystallomancy – Crystal Balls

~ E-MM ~ Economics – Mathematical Models

~ G ~ Guessing

~ H-AE ~ Haruspicy – Animal Entrails

~ H-NOH ~ Hippomancy – Neighing Of Horses

~ M-MM ~ Meteorology – Mathematical Models

~ MOTB ~ Molesophy – Moles On The Body

~ N-N ~ Numerology – Numbers

~ O-D ~ Oneiromancy – Dreams

~ O-FOB ~ Ornithomancy – Flight Of Birds

~ SOTH ~ Phrenology – Shape Of The Head

~ SAF ~ Pyromancy – Smoke And Fire

~ T-TL/CG ~ Tasseomancy – Teal Leaves / Coffee Grounds

DAVID ORRELL ~ THE PSYCHOLOGY OF ECONOMICS ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ C-IDPIPATES-IOLATBP ~ Compartmentalizing – Investors Divide Problems Into Parts And Treat Each Separately – Instead Of Looking At The Big Picture

~ TF-EFCCTTFB-B-WTMIGD-PEITSD-A-WIIGU-TSITL ~ Trend Following – Extrapolating From Current Conditions Tends To Fuel Bubbles – Because – When The Market Is Going Down – People Expect It To Stay Down – And – When It Is Going Up – The Sky Is The Limit

~ LA-PTL-PIW-TD-TTD-PIL-TSA ~ Loss Aversion – People Take Less – Pleasure In Winning – Ten Dollars – Than They Do – Pain In Losing – The Same Amount

~ D-IMBEITAAOWTE-TRI-CD ~ Denial – Investors Maintain Beliefs Even If They Are At Odds With The Evidence – This Results In – Cognitive Dissonance

~ S-IAOIBT-OOO ~ Suggestion – Investors Are Overly Influenced By The – Opinions Of Others

~ SQB-ITTAC ~ Status Quo Bias – Investors Tend To Avoid Change

~ IC-ILFPWTDE-TIAC-S ~ Illusory Correlations – Investors Look For Patterns Where They Don’t Exist – This Is Also Called – Superstition

DAVID ORRELL ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ FHAAFACM ~ Forecasting Has Always Attracted Fraudsters And Con Men

~ WABATTFNNRTRP-TCS-I-W/H/W-MBMITTKWHGUT ~ We Are Becoming Aware That The Future Need Not Resemble The Recent Past – The Coming Storms – In – Weather / Health / Wealth – May Be More Intense Than The Kind We Have Grown Used To

~ A-ST-IGCVOIICBUT-PTBOAS-ATTDP-MBABOEI-B-INMF-TAPOMA ~ A – Scientific Theory – Is Generally Considered Valid Only If It Can Be Used To – Predict The Behaviour Of A System – A Theory That Doesn’t Predict – May Be A Beautiful Or Elegant Idea – But – It’s No More Functional – Than A Piece Of Modern Art

~ LT-HPTEP ~ Living Things – Have Properties That Elude Prediction

~ FHALPC-TDT-ETW-ITO-S-C-A-E-R ~ Forecasting Has A Large Psychological Component – The Desire To – Explain The World – In Terms Of – Simple – Cause-And-Effect – Relationships

~ AP-A-OI ~ Accurate Predictions – Are – Often Ignored

~ IA-D-C-W-APCSSBTNAA ~ In A – Dangerous – Chaotic – World – Any Predictions Can Sometimes Seem Better Than None At All

~ TNTSF-OAP0STBAFCOHB ~ The Need To Search For – Order And Pattern – Seems To Be A Fundamental Characteristic Of Human Beings

~ POAR-LTHCOWGW-A-OOTBWTDTITUA-SL

~ Priest Of Any Religion – Like To Have Control Over What Gets Written – And – One Of The Best Ways To Do This Is To Use A – Specialized Language

~ TAMWTDACLTASO ~ There Are More Ways To Draw A Crooked Line Than A Straight One

~ TMRWTGFFASP-IS-TST-IHA-MA ~ The Most Reliable Way To Get Funding For A – Scientific Project – Is Still – To Show That – It Has A – Military Application

~ TPIT-TFNDQCTP ~ The Problem Is That – The Future Never Does Quite Copy The Past

~ IIIT-M-NBCW-FR-R ~ It Is Important That – Models – Not Be Confused With – Far Richer – Reality

~ MDABCDNNH-AMDOGDR-BTNOUPE ~ More Data And Bigger Computers Do Not Necessarily Help – Adding More Detail Often Gives Diminishing Returns – Because The Number Of Unknown Parameters Explodes

~ WCMT-TOAL-TWWCT-AOAPATS ~ We Cannot Model The – Trajectory Of A Life – The Way We Can The – Arc Of A Planet Across The Sky

~ PMASEORAA ~ Perhaps Markets Aren’t So Efficient Or Rational After All

~ PINAGP-A-CSM-WT-CAOUE-O-AABC-A-U ~ Pollution Is Now A Global Problem – And – Chemically Synthesized Molecules – With Their – Complex And Often Unknown Effects – On – Atmospheric And Biological Chemistry – Are – Ubiquitous

~ WANST-TIC-OG-O-TEM ~ We Are Not Slaves To – The Initial Condition – Our Genes – Or – The Efficient Market

~ COEFASOU ~ Creativity Often Emerges From A State Of Uncertainty