DAVID ORRELL ~ APOLLO’S ARROW ~ 2007

~ FHAAFACM ~ Forecasting Has Always Attracted Fraudsters And Con Men

~ WABATTFNNRTRP-TCS-I-W/H/W-MBMITTKWHGUT ~ We Are Becoming Aware That The Future Need Not Resemble The Recent Past – The Coming Storms – In – Weather / Health / Wealth – May Be More Intense Than The Kind We Have Grown Used To

~ A-ST-IGCVOIICBUT-PTBOAS-ATTDP-MBABOEI-B-INMF-TAPOMA ~ A – Scientific Theory – Is Generally Considered Valid Only If It Can Be Used To – Predict The Behaviour Of A System – A Theory That Doesn’t Predict – May Be A Beautiful Or Elegant Idea – But – It’s No More Functional – Than A Piece Of Modern Art

~ LT-HPTEP ~ Living Things – Have Properties That Elude Prediction

~ FHALPC-TDT-ETW-ITO-S-C-A-E-R ~ Forecasting Has A Large Psychological Component – The Desire To – Explain The World – In Terms Of – Simple – Cause-And-Effect – Relationships

~ AP-A-OI ~ Accurate Predictions – Are – Often Ignored

~ IA-D-C-W-APCSSBTNAA ~ In A – Dangerous – Chaotic – World – Any Predictions Can Sometimes Seem Better Than None At All

~ TNTSF-OAP0STBAFCOHB ~ The Need To Search For – Order And Pattern – Seems To Be A Fundamental Characteristic Of Human Beings

~ POAR-LTHCOWGW-A-OOTBWTDTITUA-SL

~ Priest Of Any Religion – Like To Have Control Over What Gets Written – And – One Of The Best Ways To Do This Is To Use A – Specialized Language

~ TAMWTDACLTASO ~ There Are More Ways To Draw A Crooked Line Than A Straight One

~ TMRWTGFFASP-IS-TST-IHA-MA ~ The Most Reliable Way To Get Funding For A – Scientific Project – Is Still – To Show That – It Has A – Military Application

~ TPIT-TFNDQCTP ~ The Problem Is That – The Future Never Does Quite Copy The Past

~ IIIT-M-NBCW-FR-R ~ It Is Important That – Models – Not Be Confused With – Far Richer – Reality

~ MDABCDNNH-AMDOGDR-BTNOUPE ~ More Data And Bigger Computers Do Not Necessarily Help – Adding More Detail Often Gives Diminishing Returns – Because The Number Of Unknown Parameters Explodes

~ WCMT-TOAL-TWWCT-AOAPATS ~ We Cannot Model The – Trajectory Of A Life – The Way We Can The – Arc Of A Planet Across The Sky

~ PMASEORAA ~ Perhaps Markets Aren’t So Efficient Or Rational After All

~ PINAGP-A-CSM-WT-CAOUE-O-AABC-A-U ~ Pollution Is Now A Global Problem – And – Chemically Synthesized Molecules – With Their – Complex And Often Unknown Effects – On – Atmospheric And Biological Chemistry – Are – Ubiquitous

~ WANST-TIC-OG-O-TEM ~ We Are Not Slaves To – The Initial Condition – Our Genes – Or – The Efficient Market

~ COEFASOU ~ Creativity Often Emerges From A State Of Uncertainty

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