YUVAL NOAH HARARI ~ 21 LESSONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ~ 2018

~ H-TI-S-RT-I-F-N-O-E-A-TSTS-TB ~ Humans – Think – In – Stories – Rather Than – In – Facts – Numbers – Or – Equations – And – The Simpler The Story – The Better

~ H-WAFBA-IT-T-UTW ~ Humans – Were Always Far Better At – Inventing Tools – Than – Using Them Wisely

~ T-TR-MS-PBOHOOTJM-A-CAMN-‘UC’-LTSAPU ~ The – Technological Revolution – Might Soon – Push Billions Of Humans Out Of The Job Market – And – Create A Massive New – “Useless Class” – Leading To – Social And Political Upheavals

~ IIGAT-MLAR-WCAELOW-IIFFCT-TFEWNU-EAC ~ It Is Generally Agreed That – Machine Learning And Robotics – Will Change Almost Every Line Of Work – It Is Far From Certain That – The Future Economy Will Need Us – Even As Consumers

~ IIDWIIBT-PPW-UBI-TCP-O-UBS-TCP-BOHAAD-B-NMWPYC-TRPIIDW-‘U’-A-‘B’-AM ~ It Is Debatable Whether It Is Better To – Provided People With – Universal Basic Income – The Capitalist Paradise – Or – Universal Basic Services – The Communist Paradise – Both Options Have Advantages And Drawbacks – But – No Matter Which Paradise You Choose – The Real Problem Is In Defining What – “Universal” – And – “Basic” – Actually Mean

~ TQF-MAC-ME-TQFAJ ~ The Quest For – Meaning And Community – Might Eclipse – The Quest For A – Job

~ TBS-C-BPIEI ~ The Biometric Sensor – Converts – Biological Processes Into Electronic Information

~ PGM ~ Precision-Guided Manipulation

~ DD ~ Digital Dictators

~ TRPWR-INTOAI-B-RTNSACOTHM ~ The Real Problem With Robots – Is Not Their Own Artificial Intelligence – But – Rather – The Natural Stupidity And Cruelty Of Their Human Masters

~ VRATW ~ Veteran Robots Against The War

~ D-IIPF-CS-TMOBAI-EDWSRIIARNF-O-HWCTLI-‘DD’ ~ Democracy – In Its Present Form – Cannot Survive – The Merger Of Biotech And Infotech – Either Democracy Will Successfully Reinvent Itself In A Radically New Form – Or – Humans Will Come To Live In – “Digital Dictatorships”

~ HF-WGUTITTAAOAATUAISIHH ~ Human Figureheads – Will Give Us The Illusion That The Algorithms Are Only Advisers And That Ultimate Authority Is Still In Human Hands

~ AI&NS ~ Artificial Intelligence And Natural Stupidity

~ TINRTATAIWGC-B-IAC-AVDT-I-ITATSP-C-ITATF ~ There Is No Reason To Assume That Artificial Intelligence Will Gain Consciousness – Because – Intelligence And Consciousness – Are Very Different Things – Intelligence – Is The Ability To Solve Problems – Consciousness – Is The Ability To Feel

~ FTLFD-PAOTW-WTTHIOTPT-E-AT-G-A-NT-WHUGTS-IR-TT-FC-MC-TMUSIH ~ For The Last Few Decades – People All Over The World – Were Told That Humankind Is On The Path To – Equality – And That – Globalization – And – New Technologies – Will Help Us Get There Sooner – In Reality – The Twenty-First Century – Might Create – The Most Unequal Societies In History

~ B-2100-TR-1%-MONMMOTWW-BA-MOTW-B-C-H ~ By – 2100 – The Richest – 1 Percent – Might Own Not Merely Most Of The World’s Wealth – But Also – Most Of The World’s – Beauty – Creativity – Health

~ IWWTPTCOAWAPITHOASE-TKIT-RTOOD ~ If We Want To Prevent The Concentration Of All Wealth And Power In The Hands Of A Small Elite – The Key Is To – Regulate The Ownership Of Data

~ OACABTFU-TTAIWGB ~ Once Algorithms Choose And Buy Things For Us – The Traditional Advertising Industry Will Go Bust

~ APA-MLABM-A-MELMITST-B-ALAISD-ICBWB ~ A Popular App – May Lack A Business Model – And – May Even Lose Money In The Short Term – But – As Long As It Sucks Data – It Could Be Worth Billions

~ WOTD?-TMWBTMIPQOOE ~ Who Owns The Data? – This May Well Be The Most Important Political Question Of Our Era

~ HHB-IYTTPLMOATYPTWATNTOTOE-YCVYAA-BSS-EAYAPTTOG-B-OYRTHBHB-A-TTSN-R-H-A-SS-IBFMDTJTE-HCYETVOCWRTFSTMICS? ~ Human Have Bodies – If You Think That People Live Mainly Online And That You Provide Them With All The Necessary Tools Of Their Online Existence – You Can View Yourself As A – Beneficial Social Service – Even As You Avoid Paying Taxes To Offline Governments – But – Once You Remember That Human Beings Have Bodies – And – That They Still Need – Roads – Hospitals – And – Sewage Systems – It Becomes Far More Difficult To Justify Tax Evasion – How Can You Extol The Virtues Of Community While Refusing To Financially Support The Most Important Community Services?

~ WMCTMTGODWOWSFO ~ We May Come To Miss The Good Old Days When Online Was Separated From Offline

~ WITOVAAPLF-AA-Y-TOTTAUTSTITOAALDACSFT ~ We Insist That Our Values Are A Precious Legacy From – Ancient Ancestors – Yet – The Only Thing That Allows Us To Say This Is That Our Ancestors Are Long Dead And Cannot Speak For Themselves

~ W-S-I-T-A-P-FMQTCD-W-AMPFMIIOA ~ War – Spreads – Ideas – Technologies – And – People – Far More Quickly Than Commerce Does – War – Also Makes People Far More Interested In One Another

~ ACEITBCFFACI-A-HNHALTSE-NW-CC-A-TD ~ A Common Enemy Is The Best Catalyst For Forging A Common Identity – And – Humankind Now Has At Least Three Such Enemies – Nuclear War – Climate Change – And – Technological Disruption

~ S-TGFCO-2008-TISIRD-WIBIV-A-MEAB ~ Since – The Global Financial Crisis Of – 2008 – The International Situation Is Rapidly Deteriorating – Warmongering Is Back In Vogue – And – Military Expenditures Are Ballooning

~ HS-I-OOTMIFIH-Y-WOTTDI ~ Human Stupidity – Is – One Of The Most Important Forces In History – Yet – We Often Tend To Discount It

~ OPRF-HS-IADO-H ~ One Potential Remedy For – Human Stupidity – Is A Dose Of – Humility

~ DT-TNOG-IV-PTDM-WSNU-TNOG-TJ-OPI-OEA-O-OPH ~ Don’t Take – The Name Of God – In Vain – Perhaps The Deeper Meaning – We Should Never Use – The Name Of God – To Justify – Our Political Interests – Our Economic Ambitions – Or – Our Personal Hatreds

~ TVSR-T-IHABISP-ILACIO ~ The Very Same Religions – That – Inspire Hate And Bigotry In Some People – Inspire Love And Compassion In Others

~ IOT-AM-YDNTBIAMOS-YJNT-D-ADAOS ~ In Order To – Act Morally – You Don’t Need To Believe In Any Myth Or Story – You Just Need To – Develop – A Deep Appreciation Of Suffering

~ QYCA-AUFBFY-T-AYCQ ~ Questions You Cannot Answer – Are Usually Far Better For You – Than – Answers You Cannot Question

~ TOP-R-E-IITSHIATOA-TIITT-HHANRTLOL-BITS-CTPO-AR-PMFH-A-SBFTWCOPAV ~ The Only Place – Rights – Exist – Is In The Stories Humans Invent And Tell One Another – Though It Isn’t True That – Humans Have A Natural Right To Life Or Liberty – Belief In This Story – Curbed The Power Of – Authoritarian Regimes – Protected Minorities From Harm – And – Safeguarded Billions From The Worst Consequences Of Poverty And Violence

~ PRATI-B-TLTI-A-EC-O-L-MF-A-S-CNF-WTBACRASC ~ People Rarely Appreciate Their Ignorance – Because – They Lock Themselves Inside – An – Echo Chamber – Of – Like-Minded Friends – And – Self-Confirming News Feeds – Where Their Beliefs Are Constantly Reinforced And Seldom Challenged

~ MOO-V-ASB-CG-RT-IR-A-WHOTTV-DT-GL ~ Most Of Our – Views – Are Shaped By – Communal Groupthink – Rather Than – Individual Rationality – And – We Hold On To These Views – Due To – Group Loyalty

~ T-GCIMH-RNJF-HAG-BEMS-F-IAI ~ The – Greatest Crimes In Modern History – Resulted Not Just From – Hatred And Greed – But Even More So – From – Ignorance And Indifference

~ IYWT-GGL-RPT-BAA-IAFBTTATT-BTT ~ If You Want To – Gauge Group Loyalty – Requiring People To – Believe An Absurdity – Is A Far Better Test Than Asking Them To – Believe The Truth

~ OOTGFOAI-TDTCOTW-A-TIAT ~ One Of The Greatest Fictions Of All Is – To Deny The Complexity Of The World – And – Think In Absolute Terms

~ F-IYWRI-PGMFI ~ First – If You Want Reliable Information – Pay Good Money For It

~ S-SSTT-TFC:CT/C/C/C ~ Schools – Should Switch To Teaching – The Four C’s: Critical Thinking / Communication / Collaboration / Creativity

~ T-BQFH-I-‘WITMOL?’-B-R-“HDWSS?’-TRTITWIS ~ The – Big Question Facing Humans – Isn’t – “What Is The Meaning Of Life?” – But – Rather – “How Do We Stop Suffering?” – The Realest Thing In The World Is Suffering

YUVAL NOAH HARARI ~ 21 LESSONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ~ 2018

~ D-TEOHHBP ~ Disillusionment – The End Of History Has Been Postponed

~ W-WYGU-YMNHAJ ~ Work – When You Grow Up – You Might Not Have A Job

~ L-BDIWY ~ Liberty – Big Data Is Watching You

~ E-TW-OTD-OTF ~ Equality – Those Who – Own The Data – Own The Future

~ C-HHB ~ Community – Humans Have Bodies

~ C-TIJOCITW ~ Civilization – There Is Just One Civilization In The World

~ N-GPNGA ~ Nationalism – Global Problems Need Global Answers

~ I-SCMBBTO ~ Immigration – Some Cultures Might Be Better Than Others

~ T-DP ~ Terrorism – Don’t Panic

~ W-NUHS ~ War – Never Underestimate Human Stupidity

~ G-DTTNOGIV ~ God – Don’t Take The Name Of God In Vain

~ S-AYS ~ Secularism – Acknowledge Your Shadow

~ I-YKLTYT ~ Ignorance – You Know Less Than You Think

~ J-OSOJMBOOD ~ Justice – Our Sense Of Justice Might Be Out Of Date

~ P-T-SFNLF ~ Post-Truth – Some Fake News Lasts Forever

~ SF-TFINWYSITM ~ Science Fiction – The Future Is Not What You See In The Movies

~ E-CITOC ~ Education – Change Is The Only Constant

~ M-LINAS ~ Meaning – Life Is Not A Story

~ M-JO ~ Mediation – Just Observe

STEVEN JOHNSON ~ EIGHT PRIMARY FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHALLENGE OF FARSIGHTED DECISION-MAKING ~ FARSIGHTED ~ 2018

~ CD-IMV-A-IMCD-KVANEATO;THTBD ~ Complex Decisions – Involve Multiple Variables – And – In Many Complex Decisions – Key Variables Are Not Evident At The Outset; They Have To Be Discovered

~ CD-RF-SA-INJTTCMV;IATTVDOCDFOR-TMTDW-YNTFYMOOINP-YHTTAAPFMP ~ Complex Decisions – Require Full-Spectrum Analysis – It’s Not Just That They Contain Multiple Variables; It’s Also That Those Variables Draw On Completely Different Frames Of Reference – To Make Those Decisions Well – You Need To Force Your Mind Out Of Its Narrowband Priorities – You Have To Think About A Problem From Multiple Perspectives

~ CD-FUTPTF ~ Complex Decisions – Force Us To Predict The Future

~ CD-IVLOU ~ Complex Decisions – Involve Varied Levels Of Uncertainty

~ CD-OICO ~ Complex Decisions – Often Involve Conflicting Objectives

~ CD-HUO ~ Complex Decisions – Harbor Undiscovered Options

~ CD-APT-S1-F-ATS-TMIETGTTSPOL-CTOTBLWWFATC ~ Complex Decisions – Are Prone To – System 1 – Failings – All The Shortcuts – That Make It Easy To Get Through The Simple Problems Of Life – Can Turn Out To Be Liabilities When We Face A True Crossroads

~ CD-AVTFO-CI-GAVT-CBTAFTSDOHI-‘GT’~ Complex Decisions – Are Vulnerable To Failures Of – Collective Intelligence – Groups Are Vulnerable To – Collective Biases That Arise From The Social Dynamics Of Human Interaction – “GroupThink”

STEVEN JOHNSON ~ FARSIGHTED ~ 2018

~ TATMIACDIASTATEAOOL:WE;DR;CL;EE ~ The Ability To Make Informed And Creative Decisions Is A Skill That Applies To Every Aspect Of Our Lives: Work Environments; Domestic Roles; Civic Lives; Economic Existence

~ I-O-C-O-I-COTUSFWWROOT-DC ~ Intelligence – Or – Confidence – Or – Intuition – Can Only Take Us So Far When We Reach One Of Those – Difficult Crossroads

~ WTTF-FTTOOCD-SOTJTLTT-B-S-WIMM-WNTRTT ~ We Tend To Fast-Forward To The Outcomes Of Complex Decisions – Skipping Over The Journey That Led To Them – But – Sometimes – When It Matters Most – We Need To Rewind The Tape

~ BR ~ Bounded Rationality

~ ‘GT’-MOTTTHBDTACD-MHBSETSA-TPBSOBO-GB-A-TU-TWROKTAW-CGP ~ “GroupThink” – Many Of The Techniques That Have Been Developed To Augment Complex Decision-Making Have Been Specifically Engineered To Steer Around – The Potential Blind Spots Or Biases Of – Group Behavior – And – To Uncover – The Wide Range Of Knowledge That A Well-Curated Group Possesses

~ E-L-TD-IA-S-OA-F:U-NTBR-SDFIPTWCSIIFC ~ Every – Long-Term Decision – Is A – Snowflake – Or A – Fingerprint: Unique – Never To Be Repeated – So Different From Its Peers That We Can’t Shovel It Into Formulaic Categories

~ MTAE-WWFOCOOLHC-WNTSIOIOT-WFE-TIWIUADBIRSPC-BTIW-T-ISATWTDBFTP-IAISP-TWOSCBT ~ More Than Anything Else – When We Find Ourselves Confronting One Of Life’s Hard Choices – We Need To See It On Its Own Terms – With Fresh Eyes – There Is Wisdom In Understanding A Decision Because It Resemble Some Past Crossroads – But There Is Wisdom – Too – In Seeing All The Ways The Decision Breaks From The Past – In Appreciating Its Singular Properties – This Way Of Seeing Can Be Taught

~ TBS ~ The Blind Spot

~ ITTUAPWMIV-IOIFUTPATRED-SODIBOO-PAT-OSMTRBTUWTAOTS-POMTRDILHTMSOATDI-BIIJAITRTHTHOUIYN-TUT ~ In Trying To Understand A Problem With Many Interacting Variables – It’s Often Impossible For Us To Perceive All The Relevant Elements Directly – So Our Decision Is Built Out Of – Proxies And Translators – Other Specialized Minds That Report Back To Us With Their Assessment Of The Situation – Part Of Making The Right Decision Is Learning How To Make Sense Of All Those Different Inputs – But – It Is Just As Important To Recognize The Holes That Have Opened Up In Your Network – The Unreliable Translators

~ WFAD-TI-M-I-V-PHATTPO-‘A’-V-A-MTDBOTE-B-FDTMRFY-IMSTEOP ~ When Facing A Decision – That Involves – Multiple – Independent – Variables – People Have A Tendency To Pick One – “Anchor” – Variable – And – Make Their Decision Based On That Element – But – For Decisions That May Reverberate For Years – It Makes Sense To Expand Our Perspective

~ ID-DACD-CHETTCOTI-TCOE-SC-IH-TIFHC ~ Influence Diagrams – Diagramming A Complex Decision – Can Help Elucidate The True Complexity Of The Issue – The Chain Of Effects – Sometimes Called – Impact Highways – That Inevitably Follow Hard Choices

~ D-EFDHIOUM-OC-A-TAOMTCWAMWAPLNIFTMTMSET-B-IIDTKOKVRTSTSAITI-A-TBWTDTVITGDPOEOTP ~ Diversity – Every Farsighted Decision Has Its Own Unique Map – Of Course – And – The Art Of Making Those Choices With As Much Wisdom As Possible Lies Not In Forcing That Map To Match Some Existing Template – But – Instead In Developing The Kind Of Keen Vision Required To See The Situation As It Truly Is – And – The Best Way To Develop That Vision Is To Get Different Pairs Of Eyes On The Problem

~ TMIEI-TDOPYA-TDODISSTIATAEWTDPBATTGHNRETTCAH ~ The Most Important Element Is – The Diversity Of Perspectives You Assemble – The Power Of Diversity Is So Strong That It Appears To Apply Even When The Divers Perspectives Being Added To The Group Have No Relevant Expertise To The Case At Hand

~ HG-T-TCTDTQ ~ Homogeneous Groups – Tend – To Come To Decisions Too Quickly

~ YCETDOAEG-WBIO-SBD-‘ER’-TEOTPBOTKTHTBTTD-IOLFTCGOSK-PWETSTUPOTC ~ You Can Enhance The Diversity Of An Existing Group – Without Bringing In Outsiders – Simply By Designating – “Expert Roles” – To Each Of The Participants Based On The Knowledge They Happen To Bring To The Discussion – Instead Of Looking For The Common Ground Of Shared Knowledge – Participants Were Empowered To Share Their Unique Perspective On The Choice

~ STEWTBWITBCYAR ~ Sometimes The Easiest Way To Be Wrong Is To Be Certain You Are Right

~ TIWIBAAMMOTSYATTN-B-TIAACKOWIITBSOTM-TPWYDHC-EBYDHTRSOSAY-OBSEOTSIFU ~ There Is Wisdom In Building An Accurate Mental Map Of The System You Are Trying To Navigate – But There Is Also A Crucial Kind Of Wisdom In Identifying The Blank Spots On The Map – The Places Where You Don’t Have Clarity – Either Because You Don’t Have The Right Set Of Stakeholders Advising You – Or Because Some Element Of The Situation Is Fundamentally Unknowable

~ APTRTCLTOTBAPSOML-NJBIAOTGHSTTTI-B-BTVAOTAHCYAASMYTAWYMBM-CUWNC-TUP ~ Asking People To Rate Their Confidence Level Turns Out To Be A Productive Strategy On Multiple Levels – Not Just Because It Allows Others To Gauge How Seriously To Take Their Information – But – Because The Very Act Of Thinking About How Certain You Are About Something Makes You Think About What You Might Be Missing – Coming Up With New Choices – The Undiscovered Path

~ OE ~ Optimal Extremism

~ MSSCFTTFOA-‘E’-P-FFT-C-C-W-ASWEPANGAMVIASIOFC-OC-TAMEPTTOTB-DE-O-W ~ Most Significant Social Change First Takes The Form Of An – “extreme” – Position – Far From The – Centrist – Conventional – Wisdom – A Society Where Extreme Positions Are Not Granted A Meaningful Voice Is A Society Incapable Of Fundamental Change – Of Course – There Are Many Extreme Positions That Turn Out To Be – Dead-Ends – Or – Worse

~ SF~ SuperForecasters

~ FTLV-YNTDOMSFC For The Long View – You Need To Draw On Multiple Sources For Clues

~ RCT ~ Randomized Controlled Trial

~ S-MUBAP-A-SPMUBD-M ~ Simulations – Make Us Better At Predicting – And – Successful Predictions Make Us Better Decision-Makers

~ SP-YB-OMWTGB-OWTGW-A-OWTGW ~ Scenario Plans – You Build – One Model Where Things Get Better – One Where They Get Worse – And – One Where They Get Weird

~ PM-ITTSIGTD-A-ITCTWBRFTFD ~ PreMortem – Imagine That The Subject Is Going To Die – And – Imagine The Causes That Will Be Responsible For That Future Death

~ RT ~ Red Teams

~ HCAOHBTIOPLIMW-ASOATITI-THTTEAMCFSEP-TOTBAET ~ Hard Choices Are Often Hard Because They Impact Other People’s Lives In Meaningful Ways – And So Our Ability To Imagine The Impact – To Think Through The Emotional And Material Consequences From Someone Else’s Perspective – Turns Out To Be An Essential Talent

~ AWOMUITFPTAMAYEOT-RFTDTL ~ Another Way Of Mitigating Uncertainty Is To Favor Paths That Allow Modifications After You’ve Embarked On Them – Room For Tinkering Down The Line

~ Supercomputers Have Started Taking On The Role That In Ancient Times Belonged To The Oracles: To Peer Into The Future

~ WLIAS-A-SATKUFTLV ~ We Live In A Short-Attention-Span Age That Keeps Us From The Long View

~DGMSD ~ Diverse Groups Make Smarter Decisions

~ TLV ~ The Long View

~ WGTD? ~ Who Gets To Decide?

~ WITIO-D-IAIMG-THU-D-AAS-WOLSB ~ We Invented The Institution Of – Democracy – In All Its Many Guises – To Help Us – Decide – As A Society – What Our Laws Should Be

~ MIP-TIWO-MFCAAS-FT-WINWODO-CIEFUTT ~ Maybe It’s Possible – To Invent Ways Of – Making Farsighted Choices As A Society – Faster Than – We Invent New Ways Of Destroying Ourselves – Certainly It’s Essential For Us To Try

SIMON SINEK + DAVID MEAD + PETER DOCKER ~ DISCOVER YOUR WHY ~ FIND YOUR WHY ~ 2017

~ S1:GS-AST-TUO-W-WMBTO-SM-O-DM-A-ETTFTC-FY-W-ILPFGITROTP ~ Step 1: Gather Stories – And Share Them – To Uncover Our – WHY – We Must Bring Together Our – Standout Memories – Our – Defining Moments – And – Examine Them – To – Find The Connections – Finding Your – WHY – Is Like – Panning For Gold In The River Of The Past

~ S2:IT-OOT-WST-SB-TATO ~ Step 2: Identify Themes – One Or Two – Will Seem To – Shine Brighter – Than All The Others

~ S3:DAR-A-W-S-SAC-A-FOTEYHOO-EIALTRWY-A-IYCWY-W-IOS-YMMLTRI-A-TAOI ~ Step 3: Draft And Refine – A – Why – Statement – Simple And Clear – Actionable – Focused On The Effect You’ll Have On Others – Expressed In Affirmative Language That Resonates With You – And – If You Can Wrestle Your – WHY – Into One Sentence – You’re Much More Likely To Remember It – And – To Act On It

JESSE WRIGHT + MONICA RAMIREZ BASCO ~ GETTING YOUR LIFE BACK ~ 2001

~ T-T-K:W-Y-TP-B-L-N-A-M-AOR-YMB~ The – Thinking – Key : When – Your – Thought Patterns – Become – Less – Negative – And – More – Accurate Or Rational – Your Mood Brightens

~ T-A-K:WY-BT-AIPW-YWFBAY ~ The – Action – Key : When You – Begin To – Act In Positive Ways – You Will Feel Better About Yourself

~ T-B-K:MYL-TSHCPIYB ~ The – Biology – Key : Modifying Your Lifestyle – To Stimulate Healthy Chemical Processes In Your Body

~ T-R-K:PACR-CANLASCWO ~ The – Relationship – Key : Positive And Caring Relationships – Create And Nurture Loving And Supportive Connections With Others

~ T-S-K:LOASOMIYL-O-FSE-CB-ABGFD-DSFHAPABCTYCAB ~ The – Spirituality – Key : Lack Of A Sense Of Meaning In Your Life – Or – Feeling Spiritually Empty – Can Be – A Breeding Ground For Despair – Drawing Strength From Having A Purpose And Being Committed To Your Core Values And Beliefs