ROBERT FRANK ~ SUCCESS AND LUCK ~ 2016

~ GF&TMOM ~ Good Fortune And The Myth Of Meritocracy

~ SSHDTCEPAMLRIILOTMPOI ~ Social Scientists Have Discovered That Chance Events Play A Much Larger Role In Important Life Outcomes Than Most People Once Imagined

~ TROMHCEN ~ The Rhetoric Of Meritocracy Has Caused Enormous Harm

~ M-CI-1958-AAP-QCOA-AAOP ~ Meritocracy – Coined In – 1958 – As A Pejorative – Quickly Co-Opted As – An Adjective Of Praise

~ STTEMHEABOL-AVOTTTTDRBOT-TTAWTTTA ~ Saying That Top Earners May Have Enjoyed A Bit Of Luck – Apparently Verges On Telling Them That They Don’t Really Belong On Top – That They Aren’t Who They Think They Are

~ TROMATHCTETWSAFOHDOECBAIC ~ The Rhetoric Of Meritocracy Appears To Have Camouflaged The Extent To Which Success And Failure Often Hinge Decisively On Events Completely Beyond Any Individual’s Control

~ SMCEFMMPILTTMPR ~ Seemingly Minor Chance Events Figure Much More Prominently In Life Trajectories Than Most People Realize

~ BWATMTAHPWNAMMS? ~ But What About The Many Talented And Hardworking People Who Never Achieve Much Material Success?

~ IOTTSTSWW1%HTOII1%MTD1PMI-B-TIOCLMLWSSPDTI-TFDIE ~ It’s One Thing To Say That Someone Who Works 1 Percent Harder Than Others Or Is 1 Percent More Talented Deserves 1 Percent More Income – But – The Importance Of Chance Looms Much Larger When Such Small Performance Differences Translate Into – Thousands-Fold Differences In Earnings

~ WTAM-TPRTATAHOWITM-AENOC-ATMCTA-TMLM ~ Winner-Take-All Markets – The Prodigious Rewards That Accrue To A Handful Of Winners In These Markets – Attracts Enormous Numbers Of Contestants – And The More Contestants There Are – The More Luck Matters

~ PWBTSDOOTAA-AHAESOHTTA-MFIETMTKOENFS ~ People Who Believe That Success Depends Only On Talent And Effort – And Have An Exaggerated Sense Of How Talented They Are – May Find It Easier To Muster The Kinds Of Effort Necessary For Success

~ B-UTIOEF-MAEC-IM-FEEPTCIAIWTHNRPOS-IAATMSPMRTUTINTSETSMS ~ But Underestimating The Importance Of External Forces – May Also Entail Significant Costs – It May – For Example Encourage People To Compete In Arenas In Which They Have No Realistic Prospect Of Succeeding – It Also Appears To Make Successful People More Reluctant To Underwrite The Investments Necessary To Sustain Environments That Support Material Success

~ TFRTNSCPWEMFICTAC ~ The Fact Remains That No Society Can Prosper Without Effective Means For Its Citizens To Act Collectively

~ SGIU-ISWTAWTMIB-SSHDMEGTO ~ Since Government Is Unavoidable – It’s Surely Worth Thinking About Ways To Make It Better – Some Societies Have Demonstrably More Effective Governments Than Others

~ ‘HB’-WYTYAKWH-IETIRFWIHTH ~ “Hindsight Bias” – When You Think You Already Know What Happened – It’s Easy To Invent Reasons For Why It Had To Happen

~ HBOWPFWPOUSO ~ Hindsight Bias Operates With Particular Force When People Observe Unusually Successful Outcomes

~ TME ~ The Matthew Effect

~ WTAM-GDTCF-RDLOAPTORP-RTTBHCITHOAFTP ~ Winner-Take-All Markets – Generally Display Two Characteristic Features – Rewards Depend Less On Absolute Performance Than On Relative Performance – Rewards Tend To Be Highly Concentrated In The Hands Of A Few Top Performers

~ B-EP-ASMC-WWAWEBETAH-B-TWRB-TMTAH-ITCP ~ Because – Enormous Prizes – Attract So Many Contestants – Winners Will Almost Without Exception Be Enormously Talented And Hardworking – But – They Will Rarely Be – The Most Talented And Hardworking – In The Contestant Pool

~ E-HUTH-IAGM-TMMYST-TMLTB-AIYSTEM-ABI ~ Events – Highly Unlikely To Happen – In Any Given Moment – The More Moments You String Together – The More Likely They Become – And If You String Together Enough Moments – All But Inevitable

~ METAHPFTAASMOMS-MOTASLLTTW ~ Many Extremely Talented And Hardworking People Fail To Achieve Any Significant Measure Of Material Success – Many Of Them Are Simply Less Lucky Than The Winners

~ TITSASTMWWOBTAL-IHCA-MWNHEBRCHTNBB-EAAH ~ This Isn’t The Same As Saying That Most Winners Win Only Because They Are Lucky – In Highly Competitive Arenas – Most Would Not Have Even Been Realistic Contenders Had They Not Been Both – Extremely Able And Hardworking

~ TWAOPTATFTBLMBUTTKOFNTIFP ~ Those Who Are Overly Prone To Attribute Their Failures To Bad Luck May Be Unreceptive To The Kinds Of Feedback Needed To Improve Future Performance

~ TBOFB ~ The Burden Of False Beliefs

~ TIODOPLTTAO-THBBIAHDC-TLBOCOIIBTWCBU ~ There Is One Dimension Of Personal Luck That Transcends All Others – To Have Been Born In A Highly Developed Country – The Lucky Beneficiaries Of Centuries Of Intensive Investment By Those Who Came Before Us

~ IBBIAGEIOOTLTTCHTA-FTALIHMSPMRTPTTRTSTINTMAGE ~ If Being Born In A Good Environment Is One Of The Luckiest Things That Can Happen To Anyone – Failure To Appreciate Luck’s Importance Has Made Successful People More Reluctant To Pay The Taxes Required To Support The Investments Necessary To Maintain A Good Environment

~ TFTAADTBCEP-ORTARWP-STOCBBCARIFFO ~ The Fact That Americans Are Driving The Best Cars Ever Produced – On Roads That Are Riddled With Potholes – Suggests That Our Current Balance Between Cars And Roads Is Far From Optimal

~ PWFMHTAALTTWTAAGOTSA ~ People Will Fight Much Harder To Avoid A Loss Than They Would To Achieve A Gain Of The Same Amount

~ OCPOPAPSHBDC-NJFPAMIF-BAFTWT ~ Our Current Patterns Of Private And Public Spending Have Been Deeply Counterproductive – Not Just For Poor And Middle-Income Families – But Also For The Wealthy Themselves

~ EPIWAEPFTEPOTVSTP ~ Extensive Public Investment Was An Essential Precondition For The Economic Prosperity Of Those Very Same Tax Protesters

~ POSOCAAT ~ Public Opinion Shifts One Conversation At A Time

~ TRSBFTALPRISHMIHTSTPINTSTSOLATFG ~ Tax Resistance Spawned By Failure To Appreciate Luck’s Pivotal Role In Success Has Made It Harder To Sustain The Public Investment Needed To Support The Stock Of Luck Available To Future Generations

~ ATPIT-IFOAPCT-WPABOFAE ~ Abandoning The Progressive Income Tax – In Favor Of A Progressive Consumption Tax – Would Produce A Better Outcome For Almost Everyone

~ PWETAAAOTP-ANJHBOTF-TAMLTP-TIPBMOTBSSATE ~ People Who Enjoy The Admiration And Affection Of Their Peers – Are Not Just Happier Because Of That Fact – They’re Also More Likely To Prosper – That’s In Part Because Most Of The Biggest Economic Success Stories Are Team Efforts

~ IMBIYITALRIYS-IOBPWTBOYFHDS-ESTTWMYFH-TMFTOTBOYMAMYMLTPIPMT ~ It May Be In Your Interest To Acknowledge Luck’s Role In Your Success – If Only Because People Will Think Better Of You For Having Done So – Evidence Suggests That This Will Make You Feel Happier – The Mere Fact That Others Think Better Of You May Also Make You More Likely To Prosper In Purely Material Terms

~ TWHT-TASTSAEAFTBL-MBPAISC-BOB-IIOITEMRA ~ The Widespread Human Tendency – To Attribute Success To Skill And Effort And Failure To Bad Luck – May Be Psychologically Adaptive In Some Cases – But On Balance – It’s In Our Interest To Embrace More Realistic Attributions

~ CTPB-PWINOFMPTGW-BAFETC ~ Contrary To Popular Belief – Private Waste Is Not Only Far More Pervasive Than Government Waste – But Also Far Easier To Curtail

~ APBMRAOWRFCPOT-TCCFWSSOGABTFTF-A-TACSOOCAAT ~ Although Popular Beliefs May Remain At Odds With Reality For Considerable Periods Of Time –The Consensus Can Flip With Surprising Speed Once Good Arguments Begin To Find Their Footing – And – Those Arguments Can Spread Only One Conversation At At Time

CHRISTOPHER STEINER ~ AUTOMATE THIS

~ BLU-ACAWDST-AWPMAMOOWUTCOAWCLTOW-OWIPTS ~ But Left Unsupervised – Algorithms Can And Will Do Strange Things – As We Put More And More Of Our World Under The Control Of Algorithms We Can Lose Track Of Who – Or What – Is Pulling The Strings

~ JWOBOCFSANBSABFPOCC ~ Jobs We Once Blamed Other Countries For Stealing Are Now Being Snatched Away By Faceless Piles Of Computer Code

~ ITSM-HHLBRTIO-TAOTMN ~ In Today’s Stock Market – Humans Have Largely Been Reduced To Interested Observers – The Algorithms Own The Market Now

~ NSTAWSFTTB ~ News Services That Are Written Specifically For The Trading Bots

~ TINWTUTIOGATFCTTNH-TSAWSCBWIF ~ There Is No Way To Understand The Implications Of Giving Algorithms The Full Control That They Now Have – The Speed At Which Something Can Go Wrong Is Frightening

~ SADTOYASPVRR-AOTCCHI-ITCWOT ~ Some Algorithms Developed Thousands Of Years Ago Still Play Very Real Roles – Albeit Ones Their Creators Couldn’t Have Imagined – In The Computerized World Of Today

~ AOWWWKTEFTNTBEOM ~ Algorithms Only Work When We Know The Exact Factors That Need To Be Examined Or Manipulated

~ TWP-PANITATTITN-A-SIOTFTM ~ To Work Properly – Predictive Algorithms Need Instructions That Allow Them To Ignore The Noise – And – Zero In On The Factors That Mater

~ TWI-A-I-W-NSFC-P0TCTW-TJHABCOTROA ~ Those Who Imagine – Art – Innovations – Words – Novel Strategies For Companies – Products That Change The World – Their Jobs Have Always Been Considered Outside The Reach Of Algorithms

~ SPATTCROBWCTT-TNITACI-TABCC-WNL-H-TTADA ~ Smart People Assume That This Creeping Revolution Of Bot Workers Can’t Touch Them – The Notion Is That Algorithms Can’t Innovate – That A Bot Can’t Create – We’re Now Learning – However – That These Are Dangerous Assumptions

~ ACBTTETQAOOOC ~ Algorithms Can Be Taught To Evaluate The Quality And Originality Of Others’ Creations

~ AWPDAABAA? ~ At What Point Does An Algorithm Become An Artist?

~ TVOAIAITS-AAUTSMAMIOD-DMILT-IKA-RL ~ The Value Of Algorithms Is All In Their Speed – Algorithms Allow Us To Squeeze More And More Into Our Days – Doing More In Less Time – Is Known As – Removing Latency

~ M-S-T-HAGT-FBOW ~ Money – Speed – Technology – Have Always Gone Together – For Better Or Worse

~ THABITHOAPF-SOPTWMTGF-H-ATPWDT ~ Technology Has Always Been In The Hands Of A Privileged Few – Some Of Those Who Make The Greatest Fortunes – However – Are The People Who Democratize Technology

~ GTS ~ Gaming The System

~ AWCTIPASATWHAAWRIH ~ Algorithms Will Continue To Invade Professions And Skill Areas That We Have Always Assumed Will Remain Inherently Human

~ TPMBHEWNBTTGR ~ The Predictions Made By Human Experts Were No Better Than Those Generated Randomly

~ TACT ~ Technical Automated Compatibility Testing

~ PDB ~ Paging Dr. Bot

~ WMSTBRUOIF-TTITIABSBA-ATRCAYTC ~ While Medicine Seems To Be Rather Unhackable On Its Face – The Truth Is That It’s Already Been Shaken By Algorithms – And The Real Changes Are Yet To Come

~ IASBGNOH-CAAITNOWDAAP ~ In A Small But Growing Number Of Hospitals – Consulting An Algorithm Is Task Number One When Diagnosing Any Admitted Patients

~ TJFPRSTAPMACE ~ The Jobs For People Reading Scans, Tests, And Patient Metadata Are Certainly Endangered

~ T-C-A-A-TGSED ~ They’re – Cheap – Accurate – And – They Get Smarter Every Day

~ AOU-WOBATE-CB-C-T-A-CLAAIAZ ~ All Of Us – When Observed By A True Expert – Can Be – Categorized – Tagged – And – Catalogued Like An Animal In A Zoo

~ PCPRC-EHWAPIETLTAAS ~ People’s Core Personalities Rarely Change – Exceptions Happen When A Person Is Exposed To Long-Term Abuse And Stress

~ AWGO-OVMGVAD-BTWIWWS-TSWLTOS-RTS-TSGAACATHAOUPLAAUP ~ As We Get Older – Our Vocabulary May Grow Varied And Dense – But The Way In Which We Speak – The Structures We Lend To Our Sentences – Remains The Same – Those Structures Give Away Amazing Clues As To How Any Of Us Process Logic And Act Under Pressure

~ HTSRAAUITMIEK ~ How The Speech Recognition Algorithms Are Used In The Markets Isn’t Exactly Known

~ TPFBI-B-S-AE-P(TR)-ICH ~ The Potential For Bots In – Business – Service – And Even – Politics (Think Robocalls) – Is Clearly Huge

~ WLCPTTFTOTFH-WBCSM-S-LC-A-HC? ~ Why Leave Customers Prone To The Fickle Treatment Of Their Fellow Humans – When Bots Can Secure More – Satisfaction – Lower Costs – And – Happier Customers?

~ AOT-CEAC-D-G-S-S-A-E ~ All Of This – Click, Eyeball And Cursor – Data – Gets – Strained – Sifted – And – Examined

~ HWSIWSWOITPO-TIRCTSP-TBI-H-OATSTBCTTOTI-TSATWCSAE ~ How We Speak Indicates What Spot We Occupy In The Pecking Order – The Influencers Rarely Change Their Speech Patterns – Those Being Influenced – However – Often Alter Their Speech To Be Closer To That Of The Influencer – The Same Applies To Written Communication Such As E-Mail

~ WBOI-OLT ~ Words Betray One’s Influence – Or Lack Thereof

~ BATIPOTDAOAWSCLTNAI-P-M-S-M-TTMMTBM-FTNTH ~ Being Able To Identify Pecking-Order Top Dogs Automatically On A Wide Scale Could Led To New Approaches In – Politics – Management – Sales – Marketing – There’s Too Much Money To Be Made – For This Not To Happen

~ HE-WLTAAOTTTTDOUSREY-CBAEIAWTD ~ Human Error – Which Leads To Almost All Of The Thirty-Three Thousand Deaths On U.S. Roads Every Year – Could Be Almost Eliminated If Algorithms Were The Drivers

~ LAASAATAAI-TADNRHIOTPTICMPL ~ Lawyers Are As Susceptible As Anybody To An Algorithm Invasion – The Algorithm Does Not Require Health Insurance Or The Promise That It Could Make Partner Later

SIMON HEAD ~ MINDLESS ~ 2014

~ SMAMDH ~ Smarter Machines Are Making Dumber Humans

~ CBS ~ Computer Business Systems

~ ES ~ Enterprise Systems

~ BPR ~ Business Process Reengineering

~ ERP ~ Enterprise Resource Planning

~ BS ~ Balanced Scorecard

~ ‘DW’ ~ “Data Warehouses”

~ ‘DM’ ~ “Data Marts”

~ CP ~ Corporate Panoptics

~ TOOMANLFABH-BTER ~ The Objects Of Management Are No Longer Flesh-And-Blood Humans – But Their Electronic Representations

~ WHB-TNCWCSAT-TRUODS ~ We Have Become – The Numbers, Coded Words, Cones, Squares, And Triangles – That Represent Us On Digital Screens

~ KPI-TINLTTN-TMCATAP ~ Key Performance Indicators – There Is No Limit To The Number – That Management Can Attach To A Process

~ TRSOTEOE-I-TCDON ~ The Reverse Side Of The Empowerment Of Experts – Is The Complete Disempowerment Of Nonexperts

~ TLOGW-C-A-T-TMASUTMOG-AAUT-MATTWOESTG ~ The Labeling Of Goods With – Chips – And – Tags – To Monitor And Speed Up The Movement Of Goods – Are Also Used To – Monitor And Time The Work Of Employees Shifting The Goods

~ MIS ~ Management Information Systems

~ RAE ~ Research Assessment Exercise

~ EL ~ Emotional Labor

~ SABRE ~ Semi-Automatic Business Research Environment

~ AEASE ~ Abstracted Electronic And Statistical Entities

~ ATSRAC-IF-HHOIT-SEOTTME-WWIBITS ~ All The Systems Rules And Commands – In Fact – Have Human Origins In The – Superior Expertise Of The Technical, Managerial Elite – Whose Wisdom Is Baked Into The System

MATT TAIBBI ~ THE DIVIDE

~ TCOTCITCDS-OASAOHU-TOAVGOEWOTR-HBITWALT ~ The Cleaving Of The Country Into Two Completely Different States – One A Small Archipelago Of Hyperacquisitive Untouchables – The Other A Vast Ghetto Of Expendables With Only Theoretical Rights – Has Been In The Works A Long Time

~ DWCCITNCWRANSOPART-I-CWGISBTORP ~ Dealing With Corporate Crime In The New Century Would Require A New Set Of Persecutorial And Regulatory Tools – Increasingly – Companies Were Growing, In Size, Beyond The Old Regulatory Parameters

~ ATBWSCSTWTOCSAAWFCIOECIAI-IWOTTNLEOHUSKORT-CAHCWBC-ANWGA-THTBAPH-TPEUB-CC~ As The Biggest Wall Street Companies Screamed Their Way Through One Criminal Scandal After Another Without Facing Corporate Indictments Or Even Criminal Indictments Against Individuals – It Was Obvious That The Nation’s Law Enforcement Officials Had Undergone Some Kind Of Radical Transformation – Crime After Heinous Crime Was Being Committed – And Nobody Was Getting Arrested – There Had To Be A Plan Here – That Plan Ended Up Being – Collateral Consequences

~ BTSFTUTBCUWACTDWWBETCJM-TWSMACAWWSEAUENTQ ~ But They Somehow Failed To Understand That By Coming Up With A Calculus To Determine Who Was Big Enough And Important Enough To Command Jurisprudential Mercy – They Were Simultaneously Making A Calculation About Who Was Small Enough And Unimportant Enough Not To Qualify

~ TFOPBTPDAECW-AMCFS-IWBMPERLQSM-A-STOTISIAHRAAAB ~ This Failure Of Prosecuturial Backbone Took Place During An Epic Crime Wave – A Massive Criminal Fraud Scheme – In Which Banks Mass-Produced Extremely Risky, Low-Quality Subprime Mortgages – And – Sold Them Off To Institutional Sucker-Investors As Highly Rated AAA Bonds

~ TSWTSLAHPKRATTNPOHBCKTHAW-BTITABTD-TREDBOPREVIHT-AD-E ~ The Situation Was Tenable So Long As Housing Prices Kept Rising And These Teeming New Populations Of Home Borrowers Could Keep Their Heads Above Water – But The Instant The Arrow Began Tilting Downward – This Rapidly Expanding Death-Balloon Of Phony Real Estate Value Inevitably Had To – And Did – Explode

~ OTBB-WBE-NEMFCIAHCTPITEF-TWTVDOSC ~ Once The Bubble Burst – Whistle-Blowers Emerged – Nearly Every Major Financial Company In America Had Chosen To Participate In This Enormous Fraud – It Was The Very Definition Of Systemic Corruption

~ DWLLMOE-ANWACTTCWETWCP-WWLMSOW-BTOFISP-AICTLROTNFPTPTSOSFOTRFNO ~ Despite What Looked Like Mountains Of Evidence – Almost Nobody With Any Connection To The Crisis Was Even Threatened With Criminal Prosecution – We Were Letting Major Systemic Offenders Walk – Bypassing The Opportunity For Important Symbolic Prosecutions – And Instead Committing The Limited Resources Of The Nation’s Financial Police To Putting The Smallest Of Small Fry On The Rack For Negligible Offenses

~ TAO-CC-SDRTWSAR-TWAAGSSOTEPIAANC ~ The Architects Of – Collateral Consequences – Seemingly Didn’t Realize They Were Starting A Revolution – They Were Accelerating A Government-Sponsored Sorting Of The Entire Population Into Arrestable And Nonarrestable Classes

~ TBAT-LBODFDC-WMFTCO-ARS-TMMFBTTOB-LRMWMOAGS-HTCAOC-TOPWAS-ABF~ The Bank Admitted To – Laundering Billions Of Dollars For Drug Cartels – Washing Money For Terrorist-Connected Organizations – Allowing Rogue States – To Move Money Freely By The The Tens Of Billions – Letting Russian Mobsters Wash Money On A Grand Scale – Helping Tax Cheats And Other Crooks – The Only Penalty Was A Settlement – A Big Fine

~ PTBFSE-WTTRGIR-T-LIBOR-CFNEPITWWHMOBOSA ~ Probably The Biggest Financial Scandal Ever – Working Together To Rig Global Interest Rates – Through – London Interbank Offered Rate – Consequences For Nearly Every Person In The World Who Has Money Or Buys Or Sells Anything – A $1.5 Billion Fine

~ TLISTBAUEAB-T-SC ~ The Law Isn’t Supposed To Be About Unspoken Excuses And Behind-The-Scenes Calculations

~ TUPDL-‘U’&’I’-DRA-IML-ABIM ~ The Usual Political Descriptors Like – “Unfairness” And “Injustice” – Don’t Really Apply – It’s More Like A Breakdown Into Madness

~ ‘OPT’-AFSOTS-LMWP-IHNIYCBAFSAT ~ “Obstructing Pedestrian Traffic” – Arrested For Standing On The Sidewalk – Like Most White People – I Had No Idea You Could Be Arrested For Such A Thing

~ UTACDTD-ITW-TPCAYFJAA ~ Ultimately This All Comes Down To Discretion – If They Want – The Police Can Arrest You For Just About Anything

~ TGBRYNHO ~ The Greatest Bank Robbery You Never Heard Of

~ IWTPTFCC-SBISTIWPITTNE ~ It Was The Perfect Twenty-First-Century Crime – So Broad In Scale That It Was Practically Invisible To The Naked Eye

~ F-HBOTWOTD-T-STTABB-BODWQM-OOTRO-C ~ First – Hefty Bonuses On The Way Out The Door – Then – Sold Themselves To Another Big Bank – Billions Of Dollars Were Quietly Moved – Out Of The Reach Of – Creditors

~ TODWBGATPKGBABED ~ Trillions Of Dollars Were Being Gambled And The Pots Kept Getting Bigger And Bigger Every Day

~ TDTGAWSWOTW-WUITRAPC-TAIAPOBS-E-AFMOWSATUSG ~ The Deals The Government And Wall Street Worked Out That Weekend – Were Unprecedented In Their Reach And Political Consequence – Transforming America Into A Permanent Oligarchical Bailout State – Essentially – A Formal Merger Of Wall Street And The U.S. Government

~ EDOWSMI-SEB&R-BTOTTAOSAAITTDFNITCC ~ Every Day On Wall Street Money Is – Stolen, Embezzled, Burgled, And Robbed – But The Mechanism Of These Thefts Are Often So Arcane And Idiosyncratic That They Don’t Fit Neatly Into The Criminal Code

~ WKTPP-APTMU-ITCOTB-AMSCADAITICPEVM ~ What Keeps The Poor Poor – And Pushes The Money Upward – Is The Complexity Of The Bureaucracy – A Maze So Complex And Dispiriting And Irrational That It Can’t Possibly Even Be Mapped

~ ATFC-ALOLLTT-O&O-Y-BTH-B-NOTBTWC-NTSH-MA ~ About The Financial Crisis – A Legend Our Leaders Like To Tell – Over And Over – Yes – Bad Things Happened – But – None Of Those Bad Things Were Crimes – Nothing To See Here – Move Along

~ ITLIAUE-OALEPOT-ASP-LEBPI-WCOAB-IIMU-WHTBRCTTPN ~ If The Law Is Applied Unequally Enough – Over A Long Enough Period Of Time – At Some Point – Law Enforcement Becomes Politically Illegitimate – Whole Classes Of Arrests Become – Illegal, Improper, Morally Unenforceable – We Have To Be Really Close To That Point Now

~ TISJEETEHOMOEBODIP-B-SNQEETFAITDSMASDIJ ~ There Is Somehow Just Enough Evidence To Extract Hundreds Of Millions Or Even Billions Of Dollars In Penalties – But – Somehow Not Quite Enough Evidence To Force Any Individual To Do So Much As A Day In Jail

~ RPWGATBG-NM-HWP-IF-TBOTWTOAVEWWIALS ~ Real Police Will Go After The Bad Guy – No Matter – How Well Protected – In Fact – The Best Of Them Will Take On A Villain Even When Winning Is A Long Shot

~ TVEITALS-INATAABD-BIRE ~ There’s Value Even In Trying And Losing Sometimes – It’s Not As Tangible As A Billion Dollars But It’s Real Enough

GARY HAUGEN + VICTOR BOUTROS ~ THE 15-70-15 RULE ~ THE LOCUST EFFECT

~ 15%-IOUTCPAAFPPP ~ 15 Percent – Intent On Using Their Coercive Power And Authority For Purely Predatory Purposes

~ 15%-ITDGATSTP ~ 15 Percent – Intent To Do Good And To Serve The Pubic

~ 70%-SWTSWOTTFIGTPIDTOCAISOR ~ 70 Percent – Simply Waiting To See Which Of These Two Factions Is Going To Prevail In Dominating The Organizational Culture And Its System Of Rewards

GARY HAUGEN + VICTOR BOUTROS ~ THE LOCUST EFFECT

~ TEOPRTEOV ~ The End Of Poverty Requires The End Of Violence

~ TVSWOV ~ The Vast Subterranean World Of Violence

~ TRIVHFOTS-B-MAOVATPAIH ~ This Reality Is Very Hard For Outsiders To See – Because – Most Acts Of Violence Against The Poor Are Intentionally Hidden

~ AESEOAFLAT-EM ~ An Entire Subterranean Economy Of Abduction, Forced Labor, And Torture – Engulfing Millions

~ VIAMAPOWIMTBPA-B-HSHOJ-IF-VIFTPTPPAMCA-IIOOTCRTAPITFP-AOOTPRTSP ~ Violence Is As Much A Part Of What It Means To Be Poor As – Being – Hungry, Sick, Homeless, Or Jobless – In Fact – Violence Is Frequently The Problem That Poor People Are Most Concerned About – It Is One Of The Core Reasons They Are Poor In The First Place – And One Of The Primary Reasons They Stay Poor

~ SV-OOTMPADSOVATP ~ Sexual Violence – One Of The Most Pervasive And Devastating Sources Of Violence Against The Poor

~ LSDP-SVHSIENACOTDW-THSAWOAPOWCAC-IIOWAGWARV ~ Like Some Dread Plague – Sexual Violence Has Seeped Into Every Nook And Cranny Of The Developing World – The Homes, Schools, Alleys, Workplaces, Orphanages And Places Of Worship, Commerce, And Care – It Is Overwhelmingly Women And Girls Who Are The Victims

~ THCBAPOSLBFTPWAG ~ The Home Can Be A Place Of Silent, Lawless Brutality For The Poorest Women And Girls

~ OOTPRGDGTSITDWISV ~ One Of The Primary Reasons Girls Don’t Go To School In The Developing World Is Sexual Violence

~ SVIAB-EDTAMOPWAROSMAPOACT ~ Sexual Violence Is A Business – Every Day There Are Millions Of People Who Are Raped Or Sexually Molested As Part Of A Commercial Transaction

~ ‘PG’ ~ “Property Grabbing”

~ MOTWPPLICIWTCBSTOOTHAOTLBTINRRKSFADWOTLATP ~ Most Of The World’s Poorest People Live In Circumstances In Which They Can Be Summarily Thrown Out Of Their Homes And Off Their Land Because There Is No Reliable Record Keeping System For Accurately Demonstrating Who Owns The Land And The Property

~ TBEOTSPATACBSAIAITVLS ~ The Best Efforts Of The Struggling Poor And Their Allies Can Be Swept Away In An Instance Through Violent Land Seizures

~ APAAD ~ Abusive Police And Arbitrary Detention

~ TIOLEITDWAAATTV-TIPWTPHBTTTTW-TMPCAPPFTGPIFTOPF ~ The Institutions Of Law Enforcement In The Developing World Are Actually Adding To The Violence – This Is Precisely What The Poor Have Been Trying To Tell The World – The Most Pervasive Criminal And Predatory Presence For The Global Poor Is Frequently Their Own Police Force

~ AD ~ Abusive Detention

~ AGFAPPAATDW-BPUATIJBTPOFC-AAWOEMSAPAOGAS ~ A Great Fear Among Poor People All Around The Developing World – Begin Picked Up And Thrown In Jail By The Police On False Charges – As A Way Of Extorting Money, Sex Acts, Property And Other Goods And Services

~ FFFIAIAFFW-IIITTEOOTRWTO ~ Freedom From Fear Is As Important As Freedom From Want – It Is Impossible To Truly Enjoy One Of These Rights Without The Other

~ ERSLOPTVTOECBDTPH-EIIIOOTFPA-TDHE ~ Even Relatively Small Losses Of Property Through Violent Theft Or Extortion Can Be Debilitating To Poor Households – Especially If It Is One Of Their Few Productive Assets – They Don’t Have Extras

~ IABIVBV-LU-E-A-ACW-TREIDAW-ATP-MPALTBDUTB ~ If A Breadwinner Is Victimized By Violence – Locked Up – Enslaved – Assaulted – And Can’t Work – The Ripple Effect Is Deep And Wide – Among The Poor – More People Are Likely To Be Dependent Upon That Breadwinner

~ THCOT ~ The Hidden Cost Of Trauma

~ TGDOVII-IITDOTPI ~ The Greatest Devastation Of Violence Is Invisible – It Is The Destruction Of The Person Inside

~ IWCOTLE-NEGPDTHTPWBTS ~ If We Can’t Overcome The Locust Effect – Nothing Else Good People Do To Help The Poor Will Be Truly Sustainable

~ BEPJSITDWICDD-AU ~ Building Effective Public Justice Systems In The Developing World Is Costly, Difficult, Dangerous – And Unlikely

~ IICTTCNAATLVMBA ~ It Is Certainly True That Cultural Norms And Attitudes That Legitimate Violence Must Be Addressed

~ IDN-E&B-A-‘TEN’-FIWP-CPTPIABWAPWAMCOTTPTNETL-TPACOBTPAPTWOABTMV ~ In Developing Nations – Extortion And Bribery – Are – “The Expected Norm” – For Interactions With The Police – Corruption Places The Poor In A Bidding War Against Perpetrators Who Are Making Counter Offers To The Police To Not Enforce The Law – The Police Are Co-Opted By The Powerful And Put To Work Oppressing And Bullying The Most Vulnerable

~ TSRIT:TPDHPP ~ The Stark Reality Is This: The Poor Don’t Have Police Protection

~ ADD ~ A Dream Devastated

~ CNOTJDS ~ Catastrophic Neglect Of The Justice Delivery System

~ OCTLSICIAFL-TTLOTCP-ANOTPAEE ~ Of Course The Legal System Is Conducted In A Foreign Language – That’s The Language Of The Colonial Power – And Now Of The Political And Economic Elite

~ PJAPL ~ Private Justice And Public Lawlessness

~ EDNNAEPJSTPTFBVBO-B-TMNABPJSTPTFBHAFVO ~ Elites Do Not Need An Effective Public Justice System To Protect Them From Being Victimized By Others – But – They May Need A Broken Public Justice System To Protect Them From Being Held Accountable For Victimizing Others

~ BJSAITTHB-ECJSTIOTM ~ Broken Public Justice Systems Auction Impunity To The Highest Bidder – Effective Criminal Justice Systems Take Impunity Off The Market

~ SV ~ Security Vacuums

~ IC ~ International Crime

~ TTHSCFTIACTRIIPTATLTIUSMOETATP ~ The Time Has Surely Come For The International Aid Community To Revise Its Investment Priorities To Address The Lawlessness That Is Undermining So Many Other Efforts To Assist The Poor

~ STBFJSITDWALTSOWTALLACFWTCTFOAVCCSASB-TPTISEASOLLACF ~ Struggles To Build Functioning Justice Systems In The Developing World Are Likely To Succeed Only Where There Are Local Leaders And Community Forces Willing To Carry The Fight On A Very Committed, Costly, Sustained, And Sacrificial Basis – This Priorities The Identification, Support, Encouragement, And Strengthening Of Local Leaders And Community Forces

~ TPWITPJSITDWA-GVPP-O-IT-PM-UR-FTSTWAADODL-A-TICOAGRVAT ~ The People Working In The Public Justice Systems In The Developing World Are – Generally Very Poorly Paid – Overworked – Ill-Trained – Poorly Managed – Under-Resourced – Forced To Serve The Whims And Arbitrary Demands Of Dysfunctional Leaders – And – Trained In Cultures Of Abuse, Gratuitous Rudeness, Violence, And Theft

~ DPOH ~ Demonstrations Projects Of Hope

~ 15-70-15 ~ The 15-70-15 Rule

~ BSD ~ Build Social Demand

~ LFDCRITS ~ Look For Decisive, Courageous Reformers Inside The System

~ ACITCJSF ~ Attack Corruption In The Criminal Justice System First

~ CHAEIFPC ~ Clean House And End Impunity For Police Corruption

~ TTNPWR ~ Treat The New Police With Respect

~ WPTTECFAPR ~ Win Public Trust Through Effective Crime Fighting And Public Relations

~ IBTJ ~ International Bridges To Justice

~ JSR ~ Justice Sector Roundtables

~ RAC ~ Rights Awareness Campaigns

~ DRC&TPOLS ~ Defender Resource Centers And The Provision Of Legal Services

~ T-DOT-I-IDOPARAP ~ Transformed – Days Of Tragedy – Into – Iconic Days Of Public Awareness, Remembrance And Protest

~ LEOTP ~ Legal Empowerment Of The Poor

~ TTCAGP-WWSOGP-WMSOTVIITP ~ Transform The Conversation About Global Poverty – Whenever We Speak Of Global Poverty – We Must Speak Of The Violence Imbedded In That Poverty

~ TPOVDETW-H-DW-D-I-U-GD-H-S-BFTP-VIEBAD-A-IFTHFUSTTON ~ The Problem Of Violence Deserves Equal Time With – Hunger – Dirty Water – Disease – Illiteracy – Unemployment – Gender Discrimination – Housing – Sanitation – Because For The Poor – Violence Is Every Bit As Devastating – And – Is Frequently The Hidden Force Undermining Solutions To These Other Needs

~ FFVAF ~ Freedom From Violence And Fear

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITE + ALASTAIR SMITH ~ THE RULES ~ THE DICTATOR’S HANDBOOK

~ KYWCASAP-FEEMCACTMDOE ~ Keep Your Winning Coalition As Small As Possible – Fewer Essentials Equals More Control And Contributes To More Discretion Over Expenditures

~ KYNSALAP-MALSOIAYCERATIYC-IAEA ~ Keep Your Nominal Selectorate As Large As Possible – Maintain A Large Selectorate Of Interchangeables And You Can Easily Replace Any Troublemakers In Your Coalition – Influentials And Essentials Alike

~ CTFOR-IABFARTDWETIITHALPFWTPCFT ~ Control The Flow Of Revenue – It’s Always Better For A Ruler To Determine Who Eats Than It Is To Have A Larger Pie From Which The People Can Feed Themselves

~ PYKSJETKTL-YBAOTITYKWTMIATD ~ Pay Your Key Supporters Just Enough To Keep Them Loyal – Your Big Advantage Over Them Is That You Know Where The Money Is And They Don’t

~ DTMOOYSPTMTPLB-TFS-INTBTCTYCOS ~ Don’t Take Money Out Of Your Supporters’ Pockets To Make The People’s Lives Better – The Flip Side – Is Not To Be Too Cheap Toward Your Coalition Of Supporters