MICHAEL SHERMER ~ AN EXGESIS OF WHY AND HOW WE ARE MORAL ~ THE SCIENCE OF GOOD & EVIL ~ 2004

~ MN ~ MORAL NATURALISM

~ WTIAGONIITTT-BISOAANO-AEH-NC-STSA ~ Whether There Is A God Or Not – Is Irrelevant To The Theory – Because – In Science Our Approach Is A Naturalistic One – All Effects Have – Natural Causes – Subject To Scientific Analysis

~ AN EVOLVED MORAL SENSE

~ MSIH-AMPIHG-E-PTTFONSOOI-A-S-TTFO-GSOOP ~ Moral Sentiments In Humans – And – Moral Principles In Human Groups – Evolved – Primarily – Through The Force Of Natural Selection Operating On Individuals – And – Secondarily – Through The Force Of – Group Selection Operating On Populations

~ AEMS ~ AN EVOLVED MORAL SOCIETY

~ HEAASPSWAAHON-F-S-SOTI-T-TEOTITTF-T-ASOBWTEF-T-TRAOTC-T-IAOS-T-SA-A-B-AAOOMOTSABCTD ~ Humans Evolved As A Social Primate Species With An Ascending Hierarchy Of Needs – From – Self-Survival Of The Individual – To – The Extension Of The Individual Through The Family – To – A Sense Of Bonding With The Extended Family – To – The Reciprocal Altruism Of The Community – To – Indirect Altruism Of Society – To – Species Altruism And Bioaltruism – As Awareness Of Our Membership Of The Species – And – Biosphere Continues To Develop

~ T-BB-HN-A-MF-ALU-BC-W-TM-SAC-HN-A-MF-ALU-CC ~ The – Most Basic – Human Needs – And – Moral Feelings – Are Largely Under – Biological Control – Whereas – The More – Social And Cultural – Human Needs – And – Moral Feelings – Are Largely Under – Cultural Control

~ TNOMN ~ THE NATURE OF MORAL NATURE

~ H-A-BN-MAI-GAE/AAS/CAC/PAB/VAN-SMTVWI-AWA-WAB-G ~ Humans – Are – By Nature – Moral And Immoral / Good And Evil / Altruistic And Selfish / Cooperative And Competitive / Peaceful And Bellicose / Virtuous And Nonvirtuous – Such Moral Traits Vary Within Individuals – As Well As – Within And Between – Groups

~ PM ~ PROVISIONAL MORALITY

~ MP-A-PT-TI-TAT-MP-I-MC-I-MC-MOTT ~ Moral Principles – Are – Provisionally True – That Is – They Apply To – Most People – In – Most Cultures – In – Most Circumstances – Most Of The Time

~ PRAW ~ PROVISIONAL RIGHT AND WRONG

~ A-FP:TFOWAAI-ROW-AF ~ Ask-First Principle: To Find Out Whether An Action Is – Right Or Wrong – Ask First

~ HP:IIAHMPTASHWSEHIM-A-NSHWILTSEU ~ Happiness Principle: It Is A Higher Moral Principle To Always Seek Happiness With Someone Else’s Happiness In Mind – And – Never Seek Happiness When It Leads To Someone Else’s Unhappiness

~ LP:IIAHMPTASLWSELIM-A-NSLWILTSELOL ~ Liberty Principle: It Is A Higher Moral Principle To Always Seek Liberty With Someone Else’s Liberty In Mind – And – Never Seek Liberty When It Leads To Someone Else’s Loss Of Liberty

~ MP:WIPD-EITDOAINV-A-MITPOEINV ~ Moderation Principle: When Innocent People Die – Extremism In The Defense Of Anything Is No Virtue – And – Moderation In The Protection Of Everything Is No Vice

~PJ ~ PROVISIONAL JUSTICE

~AWAAST-LON-A-FO-C-A-H-TSO-TAB-WA-FMA-RFOA-TI-C-A-SJ-WHCTPFO-RAG-A-A-RAP-SATTIAL-PJ-IN-HAN ~ Although We Are All Subject To – Laws Of Nature – And – Forces Of – Culture – And – History – That Shape Our – Thoughts And Behaviors – We Are– Free Moral Agents – Responsible For Our Actions – There Is – Individual Culpability – And – Social Justice – Within Human Communities That Produce Feelings Of – Righteousness And Guilt – And – Administer – Rewards And Punishments – Such That There Is At Least – Provisional Justice – In The – Here And Now

~ EEE ~ ENNOBLING EVOLUTIONARY ETHICS

~ AA-EMOHP-T-MS-T-IAG-A-BTTS-POTIFO-E/H/C ~ As An – Evolved Mechanism Of Human Psychology – The – Moral Sense – Transcends – Individuals And Groups – And – Belongs To The Species – Products Of The Impersonal Forces Of – Evolution / History / Culture

DAVID WIENBERGER ~ TOO BIG TO KNOW ~ 2011

~ KIAT-KITDHA-O-SOK-ITBFTHTWMAODCTAALIP ~ Knowledge Is A Treasure – Knowing Is The Distinctively Human Activity –Our – System Of Knowledge – Is The Basis For The Hope That We Might All One Day Come To Agreement And Live In Peace

~ AIW-T-COK-IAITJOFPFAO ~ At Its Worst – This – Crisis Of Knowledge – Is Apparent In The Jumble Of Fears Put Forward As Obvious

~ T-I-IA-UM-O-R/G/L-I-SOA-A-STEO-F/L-F-T-EWASI-HAM-ABATO-E/T-P-WF-‘EC’-O-A-AEFCTOTTWDDTBE ~ The – Internet – Is An – Unedited Mash – Of – Rumor / Gossips / Lies – It – Splinters Our Attention – And – Spells The End Of – Reflective / Long-Form – Thought – Everyone With Any Stupid Idea – Has A Megaphone – As Big As That Of – Educated / Trained – People – We Form – “Echo Chambers” – Online – And – Actually Encounter Fewer Challenges To Our Thinking Than We Did During The Broadcast Era

~ TI-L-F-C-D-A-A-D-P-OOB ~ The Internet – Loves – Fervid – Cult-Driven – Amateurs – And – Drives – Professionals – Out Of Business

~ TI-R-TAOADA-IB-G-E-CM-W-JT-B-TNOTU-WBTNOV-A-KBWITMFTB ~ The Internet – Represents – The Ascension Of A Dark Ages – Inhabited By – Glassy-Eyed – Chronic Masturbators – Who – Judge Truth – By – The Number Of Thumbs Up – Wisdom By The Number Of Views – And – Knowledge By Whatever Is The Most Fun To Believe

~ S-WAIA-COK-ATSTTWAIA-E-EOK ~ So – We Are In A – Crisis Of Knowledge – At The Same Time That We Are In An – Epochal – Exaltation Of Knowledge

~ IO-SN-AO-NF-T-AIS-F-EIFO-T-TNOPW-K/L/R ~ If Our – Social Networks – Are Our – New Filters – Then – Authority Is Shifting – From – Experts In Faraway Offices – To – The Network Of People We – Know / Like / Respect

~ ILTOTI ~ I Learned That On The Internet

~ EI-TSPITRITRI-TRDNMMAWEIS ~ Even If – The Smartest Person In The Room Is The Room Itself – The Room Does Not Magically Make All Who Enter It Smart

~ TEOC ~ The Expertise Of Clouds

~ I-1970-TWATD-TT-T-TAO-3,500-W-ATIOTTOGPI-T-COE-STECOOC ~ In – 1970 – There Were About Two Dozen – Think Tanks – Today – There Are Over – 3,500 – Worldwide – As The Influence Of Think Tanks On Government Policy Increased – The – Cult Of Expertise – Spread To Every Corner Of Our Culture

~ TFAMOFATI-IT-ITBCAHES ~ The First And Most Obvious Fact About The Internet – Is That – It’s The Biggest Crowd Anyone Has Ever Seen

~ TWOC-PC-UW-CDBTE-IDO:ADOO-I-D-A-AWTDA-CD ~ The Wisdom Of Crowds – Precise Conditions – Under Which – Crowds Do Better Than Experts – It Depends On: A Diversity Of Opinion – Independence – Decentralization – And – A Way To Derive A – Collective Decision

~ MOTEO-CNTIE-DNIM ~ Most Of The Examples Of – Crowds Networking Themselves Into Expertise – Do Not Involve Money

~ AMOE? ~ A Marketplace Of Echoes?

~ ITNICM-EC-TBLWBD-FTCWBP-A-TBLATCTA-A-TCWIC ~ If The Net Is Creating More – Echo Chambers – The Biggest Loser Will Be Democracy – For The Citizenry Will Be Polarized – And – Thus Be Less Able To Come To Agreement – And – To Compromise When It Cannot

~ SHS-T-WPSOWTWWTA-TNOBMCOTOV-TTTAMEVOTV ~ Studies Have Shown – That – When People Speak Only With Those With Whom They Agree – They Not Only Become More Convinced Of Their Own Views – They Tend To Adopt More Extreme Versions Of Those Views

~ SWNTK:-I-TN-IF-COM-A-MUTMEV? ~ So We Need To Know: Is – The Net – In Fact – Closing Our Minds – And – Moving Us Toward More Extreme Views?

~ ‘C’-IW-ABRGMBBIIBPATNAT ~ “Cybercascades” – In Which – A Belief Rapidly Gains Many Believers Because It Is Being Passed Around The Net As True

~ TWT-TAK-IT-R-A-O-EATWD ~ The Way To – Truth And Knowledge – Is Through – Reasonable – And – Open – Encounters Among Those Who Disagree

~ WNTBOGATPT-EC-P-CU-TOBA-‘O’-T-A-NUTMEVOT ~ We Need To Be On Guard Agaisnt The – Psychological Tricks – Echo Chambers – Play – Convincing Us – That Our Beliefs Are – “Obviously” – True – And – Nudging Us Toward More Extreme Versions Of Them

~ WW-IS-HA-C-ECM-RTTSCTCOO ~ We Were – In Short – Having A – Classic – Echo Camber Moment – Refusing To Take Seriously Claims That Challenged Our Own

~ PT ~ Public Thinking

~ TI-HNETNF-CPS-N-HICE-TLBPAA ~ The Internet – Has Not Eliminated The Need For – Credentialed Professional Scientists – Nor – Has It Completely Erased – The Line Between Professionals And Amateurs

~ We Are In This Together – We Need To Continue To Assert He Truths That Come From Methods More Likely To Reveal Them

JAMES KUNSTLER ~ THE LONG EMERGENCY ~ 2005

~ SWITF ~ Sleepwalking Into The Future

~ EITFO-ED-TIALWCDTA-TRODLA-A-L-C-BO-BLE/PA/ACOICWR ~ Even In The Face Of – Epochal Discontinuity – There Is A Lot We Can Do To Assure – The Refashioning Of Daily Life Around – Authentic-Local – Communities – Based On – Balanced Local Economies / Purposeful Activity / A Culture Of Ideas Consistent With Reality

~ IIIFCTBAT-IAHF-EITOMXAC ~ It Is Imperative For Citizens To Be Able To – Imagine A Hopeful Future – Especially In Times Of Maximum Stress And Change

~ YRCIITM ~ Your Reality Check Is In The Mail

~ AA-A-MI-WFTEOTCFFE-IINETSTRSOCOANGUEWIAABOML ~ Above All – And – Most Immediately – We Face The End Of The Cheap Fossil Fuel Era – It Is No Exaggeration To State That Reliable Supplies Of Cheap Oil And Natural Gas Underlie Everything We Identify As A Benefit Of Modern Life

~ TBOCOAGWSS-A-ISTOMC-TWCPATTENOTMGFTE:TTEI-F-N-S-UDATW ~ The Blandishments Of Cheap Oil And Gas Were So Seductive – And – Induced Such Transports Of Mesmerizing Contentment – That We Ceased Paying Attention To The Essential Nature Of These Miraculous Gifts From The Earth: That They Exist In – Finite – Nonrenewable – Supplies – Unevenly Distributed Around The World

~ C-OAG-EMTMDIEPOSWCOEAMTLODLI ~ Cheap – Oil And Gas – Even Mild To Moderate Deviations In Either Price Or Supply Will Crush Our Economy And Make The Logistics Of Daily Life Impossible

~ T-DOFF-ICTICSBNCTRS-T-RW-HAB ~ The – Decline Of Fossil Fuels – Is Certain To Ignite Chronic Strife Between Nations Contesting The Remaining Supplies – The – Resource Wars – Have Already Begun

~ TPT-IC-WNB-R-B-TI ~ The Possibility That – Industrial Civilization – Will Not Be – Rescued – By – Technological Innovation

~ WFA-DAU-POD-IT-T-FC ~ We Face A – Dire And Unprecedented – Period Of Difficulty – In The – Twenty-First Century

~ HE-I-LC-O-EAC-SAF-LAD-BAS-IIGTAT-OTISS-ATT-EOAC ~ Human Existence – Involves – Long Cycles – Of – Expansion And Contraction – Success And Failure – Light And Darkness – Brilliance And Stupidity – It Is Grandiose To Assert That – Our Time Is So Special – As To The – End Of All Cycles

~ T-‘GR’-MA-MAO-FAP-MOOFF-AWA-IAAFS-MPBAOAG ~ The – “Green Revolution” – Mostly About – Massive Amounts Of – Fertilizers And Pesticides – Made Out Of Fossil Fuels – As Well As – Irrigation At A Fantastic Scale – Made Possible By Abundant Oil And Gas

~ TWIOFA-E-IE ~ The World Is Overdue For An – Extreme – Influenza Epidemic

~ DWCPALRITLE-TMCNI ~ Disease Will Certainly Play A Larger Role In The Long Emergency – Than Many Can Now Imagine

~ ST-1970-AMAFFIPTM-FOACHO-RV-RTBPTAFMOV-SAG-FUG-TOTCOA-WPR ~ Since The – 1970s – All Monies And Fungible Financial Instruments Pegged To Money – Floated On A Collective Hallucination Of – Relative Value – Rather Than Being Pegged To A Fixed Medium Of Value – Such As Gold – Finance Under Globalism – Took On The Characteristics Of A – Worldwide Pyramid Racket

~ TCOTWNLBN-IA-P-C-O-A-LWB-IAIL ~ The Cost Of Transport Will No Longer Be Negligible – In A – Post-Cheap-Oil – Age – Life Will Become – Intensely And Increasingly Local

~ SS-HNF ~ Suburban Sprawl – Has No Future

~ THY-O-M-CBBTIKBA-WPS ~ Two Hundred Years – Of – Modernity – Can Be Brought To Its Knees By A – Worldwide Power Shortage

~ T-AOFF-IATE-TINRFTAH ~ The – Age Of Fossil Fuels – Is About To End – There Is No Replacement For Them At Hand

~ CI-CD/CAC ~ Cultural Inertia / Collective Delusion / Comfort And Complacency

~ TSD-AO-TN-FFES-ADOAU-FFE ~ To Some Degree – All Of – The Non-Fossil Fuel Energy Sources – Actually Depend On An Underlying – Fossil Fuel Economy

~ TBT-‘ME’-WADARFFFI-ATO-MT ~ The Belief That – “Market Economics” – Will Automatically Deliver A Replacement For Fossil Fuels Is – A Type Of – Magical Thinking

~ THE-M-H-U-NGOM-WP-CD-JLAT-ITMETMHTTHIP ~ The – Hydrogen Economy – Making – Hydrogen – Using – Natural Gas Or Methanol – Would Produce – Carbon Dioxide – Just Like Any Tailpipe – It Takes More Energy To Manufacture Hydrogen Than The Hydrogen Itself Produces

~ IOF-ANFTRS-AFMSAIRMB-T-LI-TWC-SBPT ~ Instead Of Finding – A New Fuel To Run Suburbia – A Far More Sane And Intelligent Response Might Be –To – Live In – Traditional Walkaway Committees – Serveed By Public Transit

~ C-WHAMMOT-B-QC-TWCTTSAETG-ALOWRMBSHTGTIWBWTEENTGI

~ Coal – We Have Already Mined Much Of The – Best-Quality Coal – That Was Closest To The Surface And Easiest To Get – A Lot Of What Remains May Be So Hard To Get That It Won’t Be Worth The Energy Expenditure Necessary Tot Get It

~ BC-IST-GSOOTAP-CM-IA-VD-TT-LAH ~ Burning Coal – Is Still The – Greatest Source Of Overall Toxic Air Pollution – Coal Mining – Is Also – Very Destructive – To The – Landscape And Habitats

~ SP-B-CWMTTITFW-O/G/C?-B/P/E/W/P ~ Solar Power – But – Can We Make Thee Things In The Future Without – Oil / Gas / Coal? – Batteries / Panels / Electronics / Wires / Plastics

~ CTTBDFTFFPST? ~ Can These Technologies Be Detached From The Fossil Fuel Platform Supporting Them?

~ TAOWO-UT-S-A-W-TDRO-H-TG ~ There Are Other Ways Of – Using The – Sun – And – Wind – That Don’t Rely On – High-Tech Gadgets

~ TD-WANGT-REOF-W/J/G-TKR-ASAOT ~ Thermal Deploymerization – We Are Not Going To – Recover Enough Oil From – Waste / Junk / Garbage – To Keep Running – Any Significant Amount Of Time

~ MH-VDTR-BU-AH-GG ~ Methane Hydrates – Very Difficult To Recover – Basically Uneconomical – Also Hazardous – Greenhouse Gas

~ NE-S-T-MT-IMBAWRHTFBO-WTFFPTS-C/M/M/M/P ~ Nuclear Energy – Short-To-Medium Term – It Might Be All We Really Have To Fall Back On – Without The Fossil Fuel Platform To Support – Construction / Manufacture / Maintenance / Mining / Processing

~ NBB ~ Nature Bites Back

~ CATFS ~ Climate And The Food Supply

~ WCAFFTPOIPAPD-B-T-IAD-O-IAPAD ~ Warmer Conditions Are Favorable For The Proliferation Of Insect Pest And Plant Disease – Both – The – Intensity And Diversity – Of – Invading Agriculture Pests And Disease

~ ED:BCWC-HWW-SWE-TAWWP ~ Environmental Destruction: Biological Complexity Was Compromised – Habitats Were Wrecked – Species Were Exterminated – Terrain And Water Were Poisoned

~ TLE-FLS-WCTPAMAA ~ The Long Emergency – Falling Life Spans – Will Characterize This Period As Much As Anything

~ FMC-ENAT-IA-EYC-NS-VDTHL-TWIOFANOOS ~ Flu Mutates Continually – Every Now And Then – In About – Eighty Year Cycles – New Strains – Violently Destructive To Human Life – The World Is Overdue For A New Outbreak Of Supervirus

~ ROF ~ Running On Fumes

~ G-WPAWO-PTP-OBA-W-STC-TWAB-DDTFFTSOS-TB-CO-STWS-A-TSWHBIWI ~ Globalism – Was Primarily A Way Of – Privatizing The Profits – Of Business Activity – While – Socializing The Costs – This Was Achieved By – Discreetly Discounting The Future For The Sake Of Short-Term Benefits – Cheap Oil – Subsidized The Whole System – And – The System Would Have Been Impossible Without It

~ T-H-EE ~ The – High-Entropy Economy

~ EITSPTH ~ Efficiency Is The Straightest Path To Hell

~ F-O-AE ~ Finance – Or – Abstracted Economy

~ AMWSCT-‘DE’ ~ Another Myth Was Something Called The – “Digital Economy”

~ IWBITSTITWCGSFN ~ It Will Be Impossible To Sustain The Illusion That We Can Get Something For Nothing

~ LITLE ~ Living In The Long Emergency

~ F-WHTS-WWWF-F-WWAD-A-WCBD ~ First – We Have To Separate – What We Wish For – From – What We’re Actually Doing – And – What Can Be Done

~ PF-WBAPO-SU-AOA-WBST-FP ~ Producing Food – Will Become A Problem Of – Supreme Urgency – All Other Activities – Will Be Secondary To – Food Production

~ THO-IF-HBRS-Y-TLOKATP-ST-HBS ~ The History Of – Industrialized Farming – Has Been Remarkable Short – Yet – The Loss Of Knowledge And Traditional Practice – Since Then – Has Been Stupendous

~ IWDQKWWAG-ALWHTSOKWWB ~ If We Don’t Quite Know Where We Are Going – At Least We Have The Satisfaction Of Knowing Where We’ve Been

CATHY O’NEIL ~ WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION ~ 2016

~ TC-MIATCT-M-WNODEITWP-BAFMOT-THC-TCOMFI/TROU-AHBAAAB-MWMF ~ The Crash – Made It All Too Clear That – Mathematics – Was Not Only Deeply Entangled In The World’s Problems – But Also Fueling Many Of Them – The Housing Crisis / The Collapse Of Major Financial Institutions / The Rise Of Unemployment – All Had Been Aided And Abetted By – Mathematicians Wielding Magic Formulas

~ IWHBC-H-WAWHTASBATPTFOHMHBM-A-HWC-PASCITF-B-I-ITWOTC-NMT-WHTE-A-EISMD-MAS-W-SO-D/M/SP-TWPOT-A-COPA-S/W/L/C ~ If We Had Been Clear-Headed – We All Would Have Taken A Step Back At This Point To Figure Out How Math Had Been Misused – And – How We Could – Prevent A Similar Catastrophe In The Future – But – Instead – In The Wake Of The Crisis – New Mathematical Techniques – Were Hotter Than Ever – And – Expanding Into Still More Domains – Mathematicians And Statisticians – Were – Studying Our – Desires / Movements / Spending Power – They Were Predicting Our Trustworthiness – And –Calculating Our Potential As – Students / Workers / Lovers / Criminals

~ T-T-M-PA-PTDE-WBO-CMBFHB-SOTCWNDMWTBI-N-MOTME-H-P/M/B-IT-SS-TIMOL ~ Trouble – The – Math-Powered Applications – Powering The Data Economy – Were Based On – Choices Made By Fallible Human Beings – Some Of These Choices Were No Doubt Made With The Best Intentions – Nevertheless – Many Of These Models Encoded – Human – Prejudice / Misunderstanding / Bias – Into The – Software Systems – That Increasingly Managed Our Lives

LG-T-MM-W-O-TWITABTHPITD-TV-EW-WOH-W-BDOA-A-TTTPTPATOIOS-WMTRR ~ Like Gods – These – Mathematical Models – Were – Opaque – Their Workings Invisible To All But The Highest Priests In Their Domain – Their Verdicts – Even When – Wrong Or Harmful – Were – Beyond Dispute Or Appeal – And – They Tended To Punish The Poor And The Oppressed In Our Society – While Making The Rich Richer

~ ATR-H-B/P/P-T-A-I-NEJ Attempting To Reduce – Human – Behaviour / Performance / Potential – To – Algorithms – Is – No Easy Job

~ A-BD-C-R-RCT-MTOV ~ At – Big Data – Companies – Researchers – Run Constant Tests – And – Monitor Thousands Of Variables

~ WF-A-SE-CCSOFADA-WNLFIM ~ Without Feedback – A – Statistical Engine – Can Continue Spinning Out Faulty And Damaging Analysis – While Never Learning From Its Mistakes

~ DTOR-A-UITJTR-TTOM-I-S-P-HD-A-VC ~ Define Their Own Reality – And – Use It To Justify Their Results – This Type Of Model – Is – Self-Perpetuating – Highly Destructive – And – Very Common

~ P-DIAS-WCTSLUD-A-T-HV-AHTAFHSOETTAT ~ Probability – Distilled Into A Score – Which Can Turn Someone’s Life Upside Down – And – The – Human Victims – Are Held To A Far Higher Standard Of Evidence Than The Algorithms Themselves

~ TTIT-PEUSAA-SI-O-P-F-T-WSTDCCUAAA-THB-DS-ATOLSOTFOTREOTT ~ The Trouble Is That – Profits End Up Serving As A – Stand-In – Or – Proxy – For – Truth – We’ll See This Dangerous Confusion Crop Up Again And Again – This Happens Because – Data Scientists – All Too Often Lose Sight Of The Folks On The Receiving End Of The Transaction

~ BD-HPOE ~ Big Data – Has Plenty Of Evangelists

~ TCAM-WMCAWIETI-STWIA-TV-TCBEU-A-FWWCI-I-FAA ~ To Create A Model – We Make Choices About What’s Important Enough To Include – Simplifying The World Into A – Toy Version – That Can Be Easily Understood – And – From Which We Can Infer – Important – Facts And Actions

~ AM-BS-RT-JAP-OI-C ~ A Model’s – Blind Spots – Reflect The – Judgments And Priorities – Of Its – Creators

~ AMBFT-WWABWT-IWGSIINCU ~ A Model Built For Today – Will Work A Bit Worse Tomorrow – It Will Grow Stale If It’s Not Constantly Updated

~ R-I-TMSOPM-IIPB-HDG-A-SC-RB-II-A-PB-CB ~ Racism – Is – The Most Slovenly Of Predictive Models – It Is Powered By – Haphazard Data Gathering – And – Spurious Correlations – Reinforced By – Institutional Inequities – And – Polluted By – Confirmation Bias

~ T-PFL-T-DL-GRAR-A-ITP-TMBMAMU ~ The – Pernicious Feedback Loop – This – Destructive Loop – Goes Round And Round – And – In The Process – The Model Becomes More And More Unfair

~ B-TPINW-SPB-IT-SMS-TMPBA-SDITFOMOP-OFTFOR-A-ONA-TU ~ But – The Point Is Not Whether – Some People Benefit – It’s That – So Many Suffer – These Models Powered By Algorithms – Slam Doors In The Face Of Millions Of People – Often For The Flimsiest Of Reasons – And – Offer No Appeal – They’re Unfair

~ A-HOMTAA:TCL-FOFTTN-A-TOD ~ And – Here’s One More Thing About Algorithms: They Can Leap – From One Field To The Next – And – They Often Do

~ BA-TVSS-TTSTC ~ Bet Against – The Very Same Securities – That They’d Sold To Customers

~ TBWMAPWRWABS-UC-EA-U-TWTC ~ The Bonds Were Marketed As Products Whose Risk Was Assessed By Specialists – Using Cutting-Edge Algorithms – Unfortunately – This Wasn’t The Case

~ TMWDATCAASS ~ The Math Was Directed Against The Consumer As A Smoke Screen

~ B-O-T-O-U-IOU ~ Billions – Or – Trillions – Of – Unpayable – IOUs

~ VFPHT-EATIR-TKWWAGOS-A-MOTPWD-LTITSU ~ Very Few People Had The – Expertise And The Information Required – To Know What Was Actually Going On – And – Most Of The People Who Did – Lacked The Integrity To Speak Up

~ T-F-A-NMPWDATST-WBOT-T-STBD-T-DWL-RAU

~ The – False – Assumption – Not Many People Would Default At The Same Time – Was Based On The – Theory – Soon To Be Disproven – That – Defaults Were Largely – Random And Unrelated

~ TPO-MC-FF-AASUIH ~ The Power Of – Modern Computing – Fueled Fraud – At A Scale Unequalled In History

~ TWE-FSTPOTOSOTA ~ That’s When Everyone – Finally Saw The People On The Other Side Of The Algorithms

~ B-2009-IWCTTLOTMCHBNNDTTWOFAHINNV-TLS-FTMP-A-TGRTS:TRIDM-EFAFRTAAFHTJT ~ By – 2009 – It Was Clear That The Lessons Of The Market Collapse Had Brought No New Direction To The World Of Finance And Had Instilled No New Values – The Lobbyists Succeed – For The Most Part – And – *The Game Remained The Same: To Rope In Dumb Money – Except For A Few Regulations That Added A Few Hoops To Jump Through

~ TRTAR-RDIF ~ The Refusal To Acknowledge Risk – Runs Deep In – Finance

~ TAWMST-TD-L-WRTW ~ The Algorithms Would Make Sure That – Those Deemed – Losers – Would Remain That Way

~ ALM-WGEMCOT-DE-TI-OF-A-CTATW-TTDI ~ A Lucky Minority – Would Gain Ever More Control Over The – Data Economy – Taking In – Outrageous Fortunes – And – Convincing Themselves All The While – That They Deserved It

~ H-WUCAMFP-IIFST-GI-B-PAETMTTCRTR ~ However – When You Create A Model From Proxies – It Is Far Simpler To – Game It – Because – Proxies Are Easier To Manipulate Than The Complicated Reality They Represent

~ W-CP-BATW-TO-T-ANO-S-B-F ~ We – Criminalize Poverty – Believing All The While – That Our – Tools – Are Not Only – Scientific – But – Fair

~ J-CJBSTOPOSIUTO ~ Justice – Cannot Just Be Something That One Part Of Society Inflicts Upon The Other

~ OR ~ Operations Research

~ B-ITWFI ~ Bogus – Is The Word For It

~ C-GT ~ Computer-Generated Terrorism

~ B-AOTATP-HOMOP-F-TODS-IGTGALOTFW ~ But – Any Operation That Attempts To Profile – Hundreds Of Millions Of People – From – Thousands Of Different Sources – Is Going To Get A Lot Of The Facts Wrong

~ M-A-LO-ALA-TSRFOTE ~ Mistakes – Are – Learning Opportunities – As Long As – The System Receives Feedback On The Error

~ R-ISWU-TI-FMSF ~ Redlining – Is Still With Us – Though In – Far More Subtle Forms

~ IWGTB-EBTL-O-TEAV-WCSF-STDUIDC-A-TUD ~ If We’re Going To Be – Equal Before The Law – Or – Treated Equally As Voters – We Cannot Stand For – Systems That Drop Us Into Different Castes – And – Treat Us Differently

~ TG-OC-HAP-RR-TP ~ The Government – Of Course – Has A Powerful – Regulatory Role – To Play

~ MAC-NFD-B-FTCWM-A-WDTPAT-A-WTLO-TCANJA-L/P/E-TA-FM ~ Models Are Constructed – Not Just From Data – But – From The Choices We Make – About – Which Data To Pay Attention To – And – Which To Leave Out – Those Choices Are Not Just About – Logistics / Profits / Efficiency – They Are – Fundamentally Moral

STEPHANIE KELTON ~ THE DEFICIT MYTHS THAT HAVE HOBBLED US ~ THE DEFICIT MYTH ~ 2020

MYTH #1:

~ TFGSBLAH ~ The Federal Government Should Budget Like A Household

REALITY:

~ DTOAH ~ Don’t Think Of A Household

~ UAH-TFGITCIS-ASPTMBEWGC-TSCROOP-TGITC-A-EE-H.PB/SALG/F-MUI ~ Unlike A Household – The Federal Government Issues The Currency It Spends – A Special Power That Must Be Exercised With Great Care – The Scorekeeper Can’t Run Out Of Points – The Government Issues The Currency – And – Everyone Else – Household / Private Business / State And Local Governments / Foreigners – Merely Uses It

MYTH #2

~ DAEOO ~ Deficits Are Evidence Of Overspending

REALITY

~ TOI ~ Think Of Inflation

~ FEOO-LT-I-ADIOEOOIISI ~ For Evidence Of Overspending – Look To – Inflation – A Deficit Is Only Evidence Of Overspending If It Sparks Inflation

MYTH #3

~ OWOA-WAOTH ~ One Way Or Another – We’re All On The Hook

REALITY

~ TND(TI) ~ The National Debt (That Isn’t)

~ TNDPNFBW ~ The National Debt Poses No Financial Burden Whatsoever

MYTH #4

~ GDCOPI-MUP ~ Government Deficits Crowd Out Private Investment – Making Us Poorer

REALITY

~ TRIIOBI ~ Their Red Ink Is Our Black Ink

~ FDIOWACS-GD=NS-TTITPTDFGTBOTS ~ Fiscal Deficits Increase Our Wealth And Collective Savings – Government Deficit = Nongovernment Surplus – The Trick Is To Prevent The Deficit From Getting Too Big Or Too Small

MYTH #5

~ TD-M-L ~ Trade Deficit – Means – Losing

REALITY

~ TS-I-‘S’-S ~ Trade Surplus – Is – “Stuff” – Surplus

~ TPISSWCA;ISWCANTA ~ Trade Peace Isn’t Simply Something We Can Achieve; It’s Something We Can’t Afford Not To Achieve

REALITY

MYTH #6

~ ‘E’-P-L-SSAM-A-FU-WCATAM ~ “Entitlement” – Programs – Like – Social Security And Medicare – Are – Financially Unsustainable – We Can’t Afford Them Any More

REALITY

~ YE! ~ You’re Entitled!

~ ALATFGCTMTP-ICAATSTP-EPWHMOUAOTOA-OSSNSOSBWOAAHTSTEAAW ~ As Long As The Federal Government Commits To Making The Payments – It Can Always Afford To Support These Programs – Entitlement Programs Will Help Most Of Us At One Time Or Another – Our Social Safety Nets Strengthen Our Social Bonds With One Another And Help To Support The Economy As A Whole

STEPHANIE KELTON ~ THE DEFICIT MYTH ~ 2020

~ HC-I-E-CC-B-HAYGTPFI? ~ Health Care – Infrastructure – Education – Climate Change – But – How Are You Going To Pay For It?

~ B-WIT-FB-W-FD-TY-HB? ~ But – What If The – Federal Budget – Was – Fundamentally Different – Than Your – Household Budget?

~ WICT-IOPW-B-WHFMOTWR-B-WDNTSTTMTHBHUB ~ When It Come To – Increasing Our Public Well-Being – We Have Far More Options Than We Realize – But – We Desperately Need To See Through The Myths That Have Been Holding Us Back

~ MMT ~ Modern Monetary Theory

~ B-TITTPFWTGSIPF ~ But – The Idea That Taxes Pay For What The Government Spends Is Pure Fantasy

~ JBTANFCOTFB-DMTARLTWTGC(AS)D-RB-TAOORPR-TSOT-A-TQAQO-L/W/F/M/OM-ITGTTSTMIAETARAFS-IWA ~ ~ Just Because There Are Not Financial Constraints On The Federal Budget – Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Real Limits To What The Government Can (And Should) Do – Regulated By – The Availability Of Our Real Productive Resources – The State Of Technology – And – The Quantity And Quality Of – Land/Workers/Factories/Machines/Other Materials – If The Government Tries To Spend Too Much Into An Economy That’s Already Running At Full Speed – Inflation Will Accelerate

~ MMT-DTRLFDAUS-IC ~ MMT – Distinguishes The Real Limits From Delusional And Unnecessary Self-Imposed Constraints

~ SONSIAPD-O-TEROABSBTC-B-SSNBCB-ABT-O-ABATS-CSF ~ Spending Or Not Spending Is A Political Decision – Obviously – The Economic Ramifications Of Any Bill Should Be Thoroughly Considered – But – Spending Should Never Be Constrained By – Arbitrary Budget Targets – Or – A Blind Allegiance To So-Called Sound Finance

~ TMICOGSII ~ The Most Important Constraint On Government Spending Is Inflation

~ IOAOTMC-LSBFAWPSTBCOMTNOOEP-TMCABT-TQI-WWTMB? ~ Instead Of Arguing Over The Monetary Cost – Lawmakers Should Be Fighting About Whose Policies Stand The Best Chance Of Meeting The Needs Of Our Entire Population – The Money Can Always Be There – The Question Is – What Will That Money Buy?

~ TRCTWFHNTDWT-FD-O-E-P/I/I/VNRWGST1970/CC-TA-RC ~ The Real Crises That We’re Facing Have Nothing To Do With The – Federal Deficit – Or – Entitlements – Poverty / Infrastructure / Inequality / Virtually No Real Wage Growth Since The 1970s / Climate Change – These Are – Real Crises

~ WNTSTTMAROATWHTPAA ~ We Need To See Through The Myths And Remember Once Again That We’ve Had The Power All Along

~ UAH-TFGITCIS-ASPTMBEWGC ~ Unlike A Household – The Federal Government Issues The Currency It Spends – A Special Power That Must Be Exercised With Great Care

~ W-C-WLON-MS-FTPBD-T-CFUDJLAH ~ When – Countries – With Little Or No – Monetary Sovereignty – Fail To Prioritize Budget Discipline – They – Can Face Unsustainable Debts Just Like A Household

~ ATTDSBLUAT-TACI-B-TNRTATGMRTWIWTIIOE ~ Adding To The Deficit Shouldn’t Be Looked Upon As Taboo – Taxes Are Critically Important – But – There’s No Reason To Assume The Government Must Raise Taxes Whenever It Wants To Invest In Our Economy

~ DSITN ~ Deficit Spending Is The Norm

~ BTGC-S(D)-ADAFU-IMF-A(C)-T-SMCF-O-WWAHGTDTNTPTT? ~ Before The Government Could – Subtract (Debit) – Any Dollars Away From Us – It Must First – Add (Credit) – Them – Spending Must Come First – Otherwise – Where Would Anyone Have Gotten The Dollars They Needed To Pay The Tax?

~ T-ITT-CADFTGC-BACPTT-SHTDTWTETC-INO-TM-TGW-IO-T-T-PTFTS-TGATSDRATTD ~ Tax – Is There To – Create A Demand For The Government’s Currency – Before Anyone Can Pay The Tax – Someone Has To Do The Work To Earn The Currency – It’s Not Our – Tax Money – The Government Wants – It’s Our – Time – To – Produce Things For The State – The Government’s Ability To Spend Doesn’t Revolve Around The Taxpayer Dollar

~ ITCHB-T-DM-WEWTUTJWS? ~ If They Couldn’t Hide Behind – The – Deficit Myth – What Excuse Would They Use To Justify Withholding Support?

~ WTILONI-IUCAROWITBE ~ When There Is Little Or No Inflation – It’s Usually Considered A Reflection Of Weakness In The Broader Economy

~ MP-INAP-IINTIT-HLP-IWMBDCABID ~ Monetary Policy – Is Not A Panacea – It Is Not The Ideal Tool – Has Limited Potency – It Works Mainly By Driving Consumers And Businesses Into Debt

~ WMINWTGBIISOD-B-WTGIUIBTAGOFTROTE ~ What Matters Is Not Whether The Governments Budget Is In Surplus Or Deficit – But –Whether The Government Is Using Its Budget To Achieve Good Outcomes For The Rest Of The Economy

~ TTTOCW-B-I-T-BD-I-EI ~ The Threat To Our Common Well-Being – Isn’t – The – Budget Deficit – It’s – Excessive Inflation

~ AIC-MMT-IARA-A(R)C-WA-R(I)C ~ At It’s Core – MMT – Is About Replacing An – Artificial (Revenue) Constraint – With A – Real (Inflation) Constraint

~ OIAAOP-B-SIRTAWMCBDTETHCWRI ~ Overspending Is An Abuse Of Power – But – So Is Refusing To Act When More Can Be Done To Elevate The Human Condition Without Risking Inflation

~ WDNTFTD-WNTFOT-NJTPSCTPTSTOM-B-ATHAMEDATFROTWCAIWWSA-TDITRWCHNT-OBTI ~ We Don’t Need To Fix The Debt – We Need To Fix Our Thinking – Not Just To Prevent Senseless Cuts To Programs That Support Tens Of Millions – But – Also To Have A More Enlightened Debate About The Full Range Of Things We Could Accomplish If We Weren’t So Afraid – The Debt Isn’t The Reason We Can’t Have Nice Things – Our Broken Thinking Is

~ FEDTEIOPOTE-TIAEAOSISOP-TJNWAI-GD=NS-EDTGSHTGS-A-TIOOPTDG-TN-TTITPTDFGTBOTS ~ For Every Deficit That Exists In One Part Of The Economy – There Is An Equal And Opposite Surplus In Some Other Part – There’s Just No Way Around It – Government Deficit = Nongovernment Surplus – Ever Dollar The Government Spends Has To Go Somewhere – And – There Is Only One Place Those Dollars Can Go – The Nongovernment – The Trick Is To Prevent The Deficit From Getting Too Big Or Too Small

~ STM-O-TTL-CLTP ~ Spending Too Much – Or – Taxing Too Little – Can Lead To Problems

~ DCBTB-B-TCABTS ~ Deficits Can Be Too Big – But – They Can Also Be Too Small

~ ITGI-BSP-WNFDTCRME-FE-II-HC/E/P-B-W-BPS-A-WFDHL-AM-IF-TDAHIO-SBA-TGSBITE ~ If The Goal Is – Broadly Shared Prosperity – We Need Fiscal Deficits That Channel Resources More Equitably – For Example – Investing In – Health Care / Education / Public Infrastructure – Benefit – Workers – Better Public Services – And – When Fiscal Deficits Help Low- And Middle-Income Families – Those Dollars Aren’t Hoarded In Off-Shore Bank Accounts – They Get Spent Back Into The Economy

~ CWMSANATMOFM ~ Countries With Monetary Sovereignty Are Not At The Mercy Of Financial Markets

~ TSNPRBFDAIR ~ There’s Simply No Preordained Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits And Interest Rates

~ J-AAOP ~ Joblessness – Is An Official Policy

~ AFJG-N-P-B-IBTTTPOUD(AOTSTEOU)WA-JG-FT-INLATTFE-A-TWANLNTPU ~ A – Federal Job Guarantee – No – Panacea – But – It Begins To Tackle The Problem Of Unemployment Directly (As Opposed To Subsidizing The Effects Of Unemployment) – With A – Job Grantee – Free Trade – Is No Longer A Threat To Full Employment – And – Trade Wars Are No Longer Necessary To Prevent Unemployment

~ MCATWASIASWTCROTOC-IPTBAGEFAOTP ~ Many Countries Around The World Are Stuck In A Situation Where They Can’t Rely On Their Own Currency-Issuing Powers To Build A Good Economy For All Of Their People

~ F-WMDWOPA ~ First – We Must Decide What Our Priorities Are

~ WSSATQ-HWWPFI?-A-SA-HWWRI? ~ We Should Stop Asking The Question – How Will We Pay For It? – And – Start Asking – How Will We Resource It?

~ TDTM:GJ/S/H-C/E-I/C/D ~ The Deficits That Matter: Good Jobs / Savings / Health-Care / Education / Infrastructure / Climate / Democracy

~ AEFTP-IOE-IOMS-WCMIWFU ~ An Economy For The People – It’s Our Economy – It’s Our Monetary System – We Can Make It Work For Us