CATHY O’NEIL ~ WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION ~ 2016

~ TC-MIATCT-M-WNODEITWP-BAFMOT-THC-TCOMFI/TROU-AHBAAAB-MWMF ~ The Crash – Made It All Too Clear That – Mathematics – Was Not Only Deeply Entangled In The World’s Problems – But Also Fueling Many Of Them – The Housing Crisis / The Collapse Of Major Financial Institutions / The Rise Of Unemployment – All Had Been Aided And Abetted By – Mathematicians Wielding Magic Formulas

~ IWHBC-H-WAWHTASBATPTFOHMHBM-A-HWC-PASCITF-B-I-ITWOTC-NMT-WHTE-A-EISMD-MAS-W-SO-D/M/SP-TWPOT-A-COPA-S/W/L/C ~ If We Had Been Clear-Headed – We All Would Have Taken A Step Back At This Point To Figure Out How Math Had Been Misused – And – How We Could – Prevent A Similar Catastrophe In The Future – But – Instead – In The Wake Of The Crisis – New Mathematical Techniques – Were Hotter Than Ever – And – Expanding Into Still More Domains – Mathematicians And Statisticians – Were – Studying Our – Desires / Movements / Spending Power – They Were Predicting Our Trustworthiness – And –Calculating Our Potential As – Students / Workers / Lovers / Criminals

~ T-T-M-PA-PTDE-WBO-CMBFHB-SOTCWNDMWTBI-N-MOTME-H-P/M/B-IT-SS-TIMOL ~ Trouble – The – Math-Powered Applications – Powering The Data Economy – Were Based On – Choices Made By Fallible Human Beings – Some Of These Choices Were No Doubt Made With The Best Intentions – Nevertheless – Many Of These Models Encoded – Human – Prejudice / Misunderstanding / Bias – Into The – Software Systems – That Increasingly Managed Our Lives

LG-T-MM-W-O-TWITABTHPITD-TV-EW-WOH-W-BDOA-A-TTTPTPATOIOS-WMTRR ~ Like Gods – These – Mathematical Models – Were – Opaque – Their Workings Invisible To All But The Highest Priests In Their Domain – Their Verdicts – Even When – Wrong Or Harmful – Were – Beyond Dispute Or Appeal – And – They Tended To Punish The Poor And The Oppressed In Our Society – While Making The Rich Richer

~ ATR-H-B/P/P-T-A-I-NEJ Attempting To Reduce – Human – Behaviour / Performance / Potential – To – Algorithms – Is – No Easy Job

~ A-BD-C-R-RCT-MTOV ~ At – Big Data – Companies – Researchers – Run Constant Tests – And – Monitor Thousands Of Variables

~ WF-A-SE-CCSOFADA-WNLFIM ~ Without Feedback – A – Statistical Engine – Can Continue Spinning Out Faulty And Damaging Analysis – While Never Learning From Its Mistakes

~ DTOR-A-UITJTR-TTOM-I-S-P-HD-A-VC ~ Define Their Own Reality – And – Use It To Justify Their Results – This Type Of Model – Is – Self-Perpetuating – Highly Destructive – And – Very Common

~ P-DIAS-WCTSLUD-A-T-HV-AHTAFHSOETTAT ~ Probability – Distilled Into A Score – Which Can Turn Someone’s Life Upside Down – And – The – Human Victims – Are Held To A Far Higher Standard Of Evidence Than The Algorithms Themselves

~ TTIT-PEUSAA-SI-O-P-F-T-WSTDCCUAAA-THB-DS-ATOLSOTFOTREOTT ~ The Trouble Is That – Profits End Up Serving As A – Stand-In – Or – Proxy – For – Truth – We’ll See This Dangerous Confusion Crop Up Again And Again – This Happens Because – Data Scientists – All Too Often Lose Sight Of The Folks On The Receiving End Of The Transaction

~ BD-HPOE ~ Big Data – Has Plenty Of Evangelists

~ TCAM-WMCAWIETI-STWIA-TV-TCBEU-A-FWWCI-I-FAA ~ To Create A Model – We Make Choices About What’s Important Enough To Include – Simplifying The World Into A – Toy Version – That Can Be Easily Understood – And – From Which We Can Infer – Important – Facts And Actions

~ AM-BS-RT-JAP-OI-C ~ A Model’s – Blind Spots – Reflect The – Judgments And Priorities – Of Its – Creators

~ AMBFT-WWABWT-IWGSIINCU ~ A Model Built For Today – Will Work A Bit Worse Tomorrow – It Will Grow Stale If It’s Not Constantly Updated

~ R-I-TMSOPM-IIPB-HDG-A-SC-RB-II-A-PB-CB ~ Racism – Is – The Most Slovenly Of Predictive Models – It Is Powered By – Haphazard Data Gathering – And – Spurious Correlations – Reinforced By – Institutional Inequities – And – Polluted By – Confirmation Bias

~ T-PFL-T-DL-GRAR-A-ITP-TMBMAMU ~ The – Pernicious Feedback Loop – This – Destructive Loop – Goes Round And Round – And – In The Process – The Model Becomes More And More Unfair

~ B-TPINW-SPB-IT-SMS-TMPBA-SDITFOMOP-OFTFOR-A-ONA-TU ~ But – The Point Is Not Whether – Some People Benefit – It’s That – So Many Suffer – These Models Powered By Algorithms – Slam Doors In The Face Of Millions Of People – Often For The Flimsiest Of Reasons – And – Offer No Appeal – They’re Unfair

~ A-HOMTAA:TCL-FOFTTN-A-TOD ~ And – Here’s One More Thing About Algorithms: They Can Leap – From One Field To The Next – And – They Often Do

~ BA-TVSS-TTSTC ~ Bet Against – The Very Same Securities – That They’d Sold To Customers

~ TBWMAPWRWABS-UC-EA-U-TWTC ~ The Bonds Were Marketed As Products Whose Risk Was Assessed By Specialists – Using Cutting-Edge Algorithms – Unfortunately – This Wasn’t The Case

~ TMWDATCAASS ~ The Math Was Directed Against The Consumer As A Smoke Screen

~ B-O-T-O-U-IOU ~ Billions – Or – Trillions – Of – Unpayable – IOUs

~ VFPHT-EATIR-TKWWAGOS-A-MOTPWD-LTITSU ~ Very Few People Had The – Expertise And The Information Required – To Know What Was Actually Going On – And – Most Of The People Who Did – Lacked The Integrity To Speak Up

~ T-F-A-NMPWDATST-WBOT-T-STBD-T-DWL-RAU

~ The – False – Assumption – Not Many People Would Default At The Same Time – Was Based On The – Theory – Soon To Be Disproven – That – Defaults Were Largely – Random And Unrelated

~ TPO-MC-FF-AASUIH ~ The Power Of – Modern Computing – Fueled Fraud – At A Scale Unequalled In History

~ TWE-FSTPOTOSOTA ~ That’s When Everyone – Finally Saw The People On The Other Side Of The Algorithms

~ B-2009-IWCTTLOTMCHBNNDTTWOFAHINNV-TLS-FTMP-A-TGRTS:TRIDM-EFAFRTAAFHTJT ~ By – 2009 – It Was Clear That The Lessons Of The Market Collapse Had Brought No New Direction To The World Of Finance And Had Instilled No New Values – The Lobbyists Succeed – For The Most Part – And – *The Game Remained The Same: To Rope In Dumb Money – Except For A Few Regulations That Added A Few Hoops To Jump Through

~ TRTAR-RDIF ~ The Refusal To Acknowledge Risk – Runs Deep In – Finance

~ TAWMST-TD-L-WRTW ~ The Algorithms Would Make Sure That – Those Deemed – Losers – Would Remain That Way

~ ALM-WGEMCOT-DE-TI-OF-A-CTATW-TTDI ~ A Lucky Minority – Would Gain Ever More Control Over The – Data Economy – Taking In – Outrageous Fortunes – And – Convincing Themselves All The While – That They Deserved It

~ H-WUCAMFP-IIFST-GI-B-PAETMTTCRTR ~ However – When You Create A Model From Proxies – It Is Far Simpler To – Game It – Because – Proxies Are Easier To Manipulate Than The Complicated Reality They Represent

~ W-CP-BATW-TO-T-ANO-S-B-F ~ We – Criminalize Poverty – Believing All The While – That Our – Tools – Are Not Only – Scientific – But – Fair

~ J-CJBSTOPOSIUTO ~ Justice – Cannot Just Be Something That One Part Of Society Inflicts Upon The Other

~ OR ~ Operations Research

~ B-ITWFI ~ Bogus – Is The Word For It

~ C-GT ~ Computer-Generated Terrorism

~ B-AOTATP-HOMOP-F-TODS-IGTGALOTFW ~ But – Any Operation That Attempts To Profile – Hundreds Of Millions Of People – From – Thousands Of Different Sources – Is Going To Get A Lot Of The Facts Wrong

~ M-A-LO-ALA-TSRFOTE ~ Mistakes – Are – Learning Opportunities – As Long As – The System Receives Feedback On The Error

~ R-ISWU-TI-FMSF ~ Redlining – Is Still With Us – Though In – Far More Subtle Forms

~ IWGTB-EBTL-O-TEAV-WCSF-STDUIDC-A-TUD ~ If We’re Going To Be – Equal Before The Law – Or – Treated Equally As Voters – We Cannot Stand For – Systems That Drop Us Into Different Castes – And – Treat Us Differently

~ TG-OC-HAP-RR-TP ~ The Government – Of Course – Has A Powerful – Regulatory Role – To Play

~ MAC-NFD-B-FTCWM-A-WDTPAT-A-WTLO-TCANJA-L/P/E-TA-FM ~ Models Are Constructed – Not Just From Data – But – From The Choices We Make – About – Which Data To Pay Attention To – And – Which To Leave Out – Those Choices Are Not Just About – Logistics / Profits / Efficiency – They Are – Fundamentally Moral

STEPHANIE KELTON ~ THE DEFICIT MYTHS THAT HAVE HOBBLED US ~ THE DEFICIT MYTH ~ 2020

MYTH #1:

~ TFGSBLAH ~ The Federal Government Should Budget Like A Household

REALITY:

~ DTOAH ~ Don’t Think Of A Household

~ UAH-TFGITCIS-ASPTMBEWGC-TSCROOP-TGITC-A-EE-H.PB/SALG/F-MUI ~ Unlike A Household – The Federal Government Issues The Currency It Spends – A Special Power That Must Be Exercised With Great Care – The Scorekeeper Can’t Run Out Of Points – The Government Issues The Currency – And – Everyone Else – Household / Private Business / State And Local Governments / Foreigners – Merely Uses It

MYTH #2

~ DAEOO ~ Deficits Are Evidence Of Overspending

REALITY

~ TOI ~ Think Of Inflation

~ FEOO-LT-I-ADIOEOOIISI ~ For Evidence Of Overspending – Look To – Inflation – A Deficit Is Only Evidence Of Overspending If It Sparks Inflation

MYTH #3

~ OWOA-WAOTH ~ One Way Or Another – We’re All On The Hook

REALITY

~ TND(TI) ~ The National Debt (That Isn’t)

~ TNDPNFBW ~ The National Debt Poses No Financial Burden Whatsoever

MYTH #4

~ GDCOPI-MUP ~ Government Deficits Crowd Out Private Investment – Making Us Poorer

REALITY

~ TRIIOBI ~ Their Red Ink Is Our Black Ink

~ FDIOWACS-GD=NS-TTITPTDFGTBOTS ~ Fiscal Deficits Increase Our Wealth And Collective Savings – Government Deficit = Nongovernment Surplus – The Trick Is To Prevent The Deficit From Getting Too Big Or Too Small

MYTH #5

~ TD-M-L ~ Trade Deficit – Means – Losing

REALITY

~ TS-I-‘S’-S ~ Trade Surplus – Is – “Stuff” – Surplus

~ TPISSWCA;ISWCANTA ~ Trade Peace Isn’t Simply Something We Can Achieve; It’s Something We Can’t Afford Not To Achieve

REALITY

MYTH #6

~ ‘E’-P-L-SSAM-A-FU-WCATAM ~ “Entitlement” – Programs – Like – Social Security And Medicare – Are – Financially Unsustainable – We Can’t Afford Them Any More

REALITY

~ YE! ~ You’re Entitled!

~ ALATFGCTMTP-ICAATSTP-EPWHMOUAOTOA-OSSNSOSBWOAAHTSTEAAW ~ As Long As The Federal Government Commits To Making The Payments – It Can Always Afford To Support These Programs – Entitlement Programs Will Help Most Of Us At One Time Or Another – Our Social Safety Nets Strengthen Our Social Bonds With One Another And Help To Support The Economy As A Whole

STEPHANIE KELTON ~ THE DEFICIT MYTH ~ 2020

~ HC-I-E-CC-B-HAYGTPFI? ~ Health Care – Infrastructure – Education – Climate Change – But – How Are You Going To Pay For It?

~ B-WIT-FB-W-FD-TY-HB? ~ But – What If The – Federal Budget – Was – Fundamentally Different – Than Your – Household Budget?

~ WICT-IOPW-B-WHFMOTWR-B-WDNTSTTMTHBHUB ~ When It Come To – Increasing Our Public Well-Being – We Have Far More Options Than We Realize – But – We Desperately Need To See Through The Myths That Have Been Holding Us Back

~ MMT ~ Modern Monetary Theory

~ B-TITTPFWTGSIPF ~ But – The Idea That Taxes Pay For What The Government Spends Is Pure Fantasy

~ JBTANFCOTFB-DMTARLTWTGC(AS)D-RB-TAOORPR-TSOT-A-TQAQO-L/W/F/M/OM-ITGTTSTMIAETARAFS-IWA ~ ~ Just Because There Are Not Financial Constraints On The Federal Budget – Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Real Limits To What The Government Can (And Should) Do – Regulated By – The Availability Of Our Real Productive Resources – The State Of Technology – And – The Quantity And Quality Of – Land/Workers/Factories/Machines/Other Materials – If The Government Tries To Spend Too Much Into An Economy That’s Already Running At Full Speed – Inflation Will Accelerate

~ MMT-DTRLFDAUS-IC ~ MMT – Distinguishes The Real Limits From Delusional And Unnecessary Self-Imposed Constraints

~ SONSIAPD-O-TEROABSBTC-B-SSNBCB-ABT-O-ABATS-CSF ~ Spending Or Not Spending Is A Political Decision – Obviously – The Economic Ramifications Of Any Bill Should Be Thoroughly Considered – But – Spending Should Never Be Constrained By – Arbitrary Budget Targets – Or – A Blind Allegiance To So-Called Sound Finance

~ TMICOGSII ~ The Most Important Constraint On Government Spending Is Inflation

~ IOAOTMC-LSBFAWPSTBCOMTNOOEP-TMCABT-TQI-WWTMB? ~ Instead Of Arguing Over The Monetary Cost – Lawmakers Should Be Fighting About Whose Policies Stand The Best Chance Of Meeting The Needs Of Our Entire Population – The Money Can Always Be There – The Question Is – What Will That Money Buy?

~ TRCTWFHNTDWT-FD-O-E-P/I/I/VNRWGST1970/CC-TA-RC ~ The Real Crises That We’re Facing Have Nothing To Do With The – Federal Deficit – Or – Entitlements – Poverty / Infrastructure / Inequality / Virtually No Real Wage Growth Since The 1970s / Climate Change – These Are – Real Crises

~ WNTSTTMAROATWHTPAA ~ We Need To See Through The Myths And Remember Once Again That We’ve Had The Power All Along

~ UAH-TFGITCIS-ASPTMBEWGC ~ Unlike A Household – The Federal Government Issues The Currency It Spends – A Special Power That Must Be Exercised With Great Care

~ W-C-WLON-MS-FTPBD-T-CFUDJLAH ~ When – Countries – With Little Or No – Monetary Sovereignty – Fail To Prioritize Budget Discipline – They – Can Face Unsustainable Debts Just Like A Household

~ ATTDSBLUAT-TACI-B-TNRTATGMRTWIWTIIOE ~ Adding To The Deficit Shouldn’t Be Looked Upon As Taboo – Taxes Are Critically Important – But – There’s No Reason To Assume The Government Must Raise Taxes Whenever It Wants To Invest In Our Economy

~ DSITN ~ Deficit Spending Is The Norm

~ BTGC-S(D)-ADAFU-IMF-A(C)-T-SMCF-O-WWAHGTDTNTPTT? ~ Before The Government Could – Subtract (Debit) – Any Dollars Away From Us – It Must First – Add (Credit) – Them – Spending Must Come First – Otherwise – Where Would Anyone Have Gotten The Dollars They Needed To Pay The Tax?

~ T-ITT-CADFTGC-BACPTT-SHTDTWTETC-INO-TM-TGW-IO-T-T-PTFTS-TGATSDRATTD ~ Tax – Is There To – Create A Demand For The Government’s Currency – Before Anyone Can Pay The Tax – Someone Has To Do The Work To Earn The Currency – It’s Not Our – Tax Money – The Government Wants – It’s Our – Time – To – Produce Things For The State – The Government’s Ability To Spend Doesn’t Revolve Around The Taxpayer Dollar

~ ITCHB-T-DM-WEWTUTJWS? ~ If They Couldn’t Hide Behind – The – Deficit Myth – What Excuse Would They Use To Justify Withholding Support?

~ WTILONI-IUCAROWITBE ~ When There Is Little Or No Inflation – It’s Usually Considered A Reflection Of Weakness In The Broader Economy

~ MP-INAP-IINTIT-HLP-IWMBDCABID ~ Monetary Policy – Is Not A Panacea – It Is Not The Ideal Tool – Has Limited Potency – It Works Mainly By Driving Consumers And Businesses Into Debt

~ WMINWTGBIISOD-B-WTGIUIBTAGOFTROTE ~ What Matters Is Not Whether The Governments Budget Is In Surplus Or Deficit – But –Whether The Government Is Using Its Budget To Achieve Good Outcomes For The Rest Of The Economy

~ TTTOCW-B-I-T-BD-I-EI ~ The Threat To Our Common Well-Being – Isn’t – The – Budget Deficit – It’s – Excessive Inflation

~ AIC-MMT-IARA-A(R)C-WA-R(I)C ~ At It’s Core – MMT – Is About Replacing An – Artificial (Revenue) Constraint – With A – Real (Inflation) Constraint

~ OIAAOP-B-SIRTAWMCBDTETHCWRI ~ Overspending Is An Abuse Of Power – But – So Is Refusing To Act When More Can Be Done To Elevate The Human Condition Without Risking Inflation

~ WDNTFTD-WNTFOT-NJTPSCTPTSTOM-B-ATHAMEDATFROTWCAIWWSA-TDITRWCHNT-OBTI ~ We Don’t Need To Fix The Debt – We Need To Fix Our Thinking – Not Just To Prevent Senseless Cuts To Programs That Support Tens Of Millions – But – Also To Have A More Enlightened Debate About The Full Range Of Things We Could Accomplish If We Weren’t So Afraid – The Debt Isn’t The Reason We Can’t Have Nice Things – Our Broken Thinking Is

~ FEDTEIOPOTE-TIAEAOSISOP-TJNWAI-GD=NS-EDTGSHTGS-A-TIOOPTDG-TN-TTITPTDFGTBOTS ~ For Every Deficit That Exists In One Part Of The Economy – There Is An Equal And Opposite Surplus In Some Other Part – There’s Just No Way Around It – Government Deficit = Nongovernment Surplus – Ever Dollar The Government Spends Has To Go Somewhere – And – There Is Only One Place Those Dollars Can Go – The Nongovernment – The Trick Is To Prevent The Deficit From Getting Too Big Or Too Small

~ STM-O-TTL-CLTP ~ Spending Too Much – Or – Taxing Too Little – Can Lead To Problems

~ DCBTB-B-TCABTS ~ Deficits Can Be Too Big – But – They Can Also Be Too Small

~ ITGI-BSP-WNFDTCRME-FE-II-HC/E/P-B-W-BPS-A-WFDHL-AM-IF-TDAHIO-SBA-TGSBITE ~ If The Goal Is – Broadly Shared Prosperity – We Need Fiscal Deficits That Channel Resources More Equitably – For Example – Investing In – Health Care / Education / Public Infrastructure – Benefit – Workers – Better Public Services – And – When Fiscal Deficits Help Low- And Middle-Income Families – Those Dollars Aren’t Hoarded In Off-Shore Bank Accounts – They Get Spent Back Into The Economy

~ CWMSANATMOFM ~ Countries With Monetary Sovereignty Are Not At The Mercy Of Financial Markets

~ TSNPRBFDAIR ~ There’s Simply No Preordained Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits And Interest Rates

~ J-AAOP ~ Joblessness – Is An Official Policy

~ AFJG-N-P-B-IBTTTPOUD(AOTSTEOU)WA-JG-FT-INLATTFE-A-TWANLNTPU ~ A – Federal Job Guarantee – No – Panacea – But – It Begins To Tackle The Problem Of Unemployment Directly (As Opposed To Subsidizing The Effects Of Unemployment) – With A – Job Grantee – Free Trade – Is No Longer A Threat To Full Employment – And – Trade Wars Are No Longer Necessary To Prevent Unemployment

~ MCATWASIASWTCROTOC-IPTBAGEFAOTP ~ Many Countries Around The World Are Stuck In A Situation Where They Can’t Rely On Their Own Currency-Issuing Powers To Build A Good Economy For All Of Their People

~ F-WMDWOPA ~ First – We Must Decide What Our Priorities Are

~ WSSATQ-HWWPFI?-A-SA-HWWRI? ~ We Should Stop Asking The Question – How Will We Pay For It? – And – Start Asking – How Will We Resource It?

~ TDTM:GJ/S/H-C/E-I/C/D ~ The Deficits That Matter: Good Jobs / Savings / Health-Care / Education / Infrastructure / Climate / Democracy

~ AEFTP-IOE-IOMS-WCMIWFU ~ An Economy For The People – It’s Our Economy – It’s Our Monetary System – We Can Make It Work For Us