MARG DE VILLIERS ~ WATER ~ 1999

~ W-ITBOCI-DNJL?-THQINHMCPSWTS-B-WKOEIPFTWDS ~ Where – In The Balance Of Competing Interests – Does Natural Justice Lie? – The Human Question Is Not How Many Can Possibly Survive Within The System – But – What Kind Of Existence Is Possible For Those Who Do Survive

~ THPIB-B-WDIITAF ~ The Human Population Is Burgeoning – But – Water Demand Is Increasing Twice As Fast

~ ‘TWOTT-FCWBFOW’ ~ “The Wars Of The Twenty-First Century Will Be Fought Over Water”

~ EYL-TASTTWSIIP ~ Everywhere You Look – There Are Signs That The Water Supply Is In Peril

~ ANWLT-1000CMPPPY-I-WS ~ Any Nation With Less Than – 1,000 Cubic Metres Per Person Per Year – Is – Water Scarce

~ PCAO-G-P-W-IGDIADADC ~ Per Capita Availability Of – Good – Potable – Water – Is Going Down In All Developed And Developing Countries

~ MOT-‘E’-SFWHABE-A-MOTWIIPIIN ~ Most Of The – “Easy” – Sources For Water Have Already Been Exploited – And – Much Of The Water Is In Places It Isn’t Needed

~ TBEATMEG-IT-TAS-1.4BCKOWOEILAFF-IT-O/L/S/G/G-FS-AO-2.5%-OTT ~ The Best Estimate Among The Many Educated Guesses – Is That – There Are Some – 1.4 Billion Cubic Kilometres Of Water On Earth In Liquid And Frozen Form – In The – Oceans / Lakes / Streams / Glaciers / Groundwater – Freshwater Stocks – Are Only – 2.5 Percent – Of The Total

~ WD-WITWTCF? ~ Water Demand – Where Is This Water To Come From?

~ WMMTNI-HB-NLI-S-H-OE-Y ~ We Must Measure Time Now In – Human Beings – No Longer In – Seconds – Hours – Or Even – Years

~ GD-I-OOTGUBLCFOP-WATIF-FFS-HM-F-C-W ~ Groundwater Depletion – Is – One Of The Great Unseen But Looming Crises Facing Our Planet – With All The Implications For – Falling Food Supplies – Human Misery – Famine – Conflict – War

~ TPOTMWOFAATNRTIIC-‘GO’-IIAMP-DO-RPACE ~ The Process Of Taking More Water Out From An Aquifer Than Naturally Returns To It Is Called – “Groundwater Overdrafting” – It Is A Modern Phenomenon – Depending On – Reliable Pumps And Cheap Energy

~ TWOTMWICACSWTI-RTAPFHU ~ The Withdrawal Of Too Much Water In Coastal Aquifers Causes Sea Water To Intrude – Ruining The Aquifer Permanently For Human Use

~ EASUTRACS-A-TIHAMOECWSLOP ~ Europeans Are Still Using Their Rivers As Convenient Sewers – And – There Is Hardly A Metre Of European Coastline Without Some Level Of Pollution

~ DAG ~ Deserts Are Growing

~ HHA-D-D-A-R-H-A-M-W ~ Humans Have Always – Discovered – Diverted – Accumulated – Regulated – Hoarded – And – Misused – Water

~ M-IC-PTTVS-EUTETROWTSWB ~ Many – Irrigating Cultures – Perished Through Their Very Success – Expanding Until They Exhausted The Resources On Which Their Success Was Based

~ ADOTE ~ Anthropogenic Degradation Of The Environment

~ PG-TEOAIRD ~ Population Growth – The Engine Of All Increased Resource Demands

~ DI-ANP-F-IC-I-APC-TOHAACOD ~ Drought Is – A Natural Phenomenon – Famine – In Contrast – Is – A Political Catastrophe – That Occasionally Happens As A Consequence Of Drought

~ WWHWBTIITW ~ Who Was Hiding What By Throwing It Into The Water

~ B-A-A=B-M-MEW-CBMCATPUTFC ~ Bio-Accumulation – And – Bio-Magnification – Make Everything Worse – Chemicals Become More Concentrated As They Pass Up The Food Chain

~ ESHCLBCOBDACG ~ Epidemiological Studies Have Confirmed Links Between Cancer Or Birth Defects And Contaminated Groundwater

~ TP-HBAT-EWW-SN ~ The Public – Having Been Assured That – Everything Was Well – Stopped Noticing

~ OABPHNATCDW-A-MT2.9BHNATSS ~ Over A Billion People Have No Access To Clean Drinking Water – And – More Than 2.9 Billion Have No Access To Sanitation Services

~ PLTD ~ Pollution Leads To Disease

~ WIBASAAS:ICDVLOTEIWIIF-TMGSVTP ~ Water Is Both A Solvent And A Sponge: Its Composition Depends Very Largely On The Environment In Which It Is Found – That Makes Groundwater So Vulnerable To Pollution

~ TCTHHWANT-TCOGIBMOAGS ~ The Changes That Humans Have Wrought Are Not Trivial – The Chemistry Of Groundwater Is Being Modified On A Global Scale

~ TNCOFWIRSBMAMFAUN-BFATAHLOIAUW ~ The Nitrate Content Of Fresh Water Is Rising Steadily Because More And More Farmers Are Using Nitrogen-Based Fertilizers And There Are Higher Levels Of Industrial And Urban Wastes

~ ‘D’-W-ILTWMSPP ~ “Dirty” – Water – Is Likely The World’s Most Serious Pollution Problem

~ DAHBFTPMPHTIA ~ Diversified Agriculture – Has Been Found To Produce More Per Hectare Than – Irrigated Agriculture

~ ATCAF-D-AAS-TBLIR ~ A True Cost Accounting For – Dams – Almost Always Shows – The Bottom Line In Red

~ NOINMLBBUIBAGDOILIBTOOP ~ Not Only Is No More Land Being Brought Under Irrigation But A Good Deal Of Irrigated Land Is Being Taken Out Of Production

~ SOTS-TADTIH-ISATRO-MT1MHAY ~ Salination Of The Soil – To A Degree That Inhibits Farming – Is Spreading At The Rate Of – More Than 1 Million Hectares A Year

~ TPISTS-TDDTF:WGCASM-IAIC-W-L-D-A-POTWS-A-RSITS-LU-TPCEKTSA ~ The Problem Is Simple To State – Though Devastatingly Difficult To Fix: Without Great Care And Skilful Management – Irrigation Almost Inevitably Causes – Water-Logging – Depletion – And – Pollution Of The Water Supply – And – Rising Salinity In The Soil – Left Unchecked – These Problems Can Eventually Kill The Soil Altogether

~ AAWA-A-60%-OTWIFINGTTC ~ As A Working Average – Almost – 60 Percent – Of The Water Intended For Irrigation Never Gets To The Croplands

~ ‘W-S-M’ ~ “Water-Stress-Management”

~ SA ~ Shrinking Aquifers

~ WW-T-D-W-T-W-RO? ~ What Will – They – Do – When – Their – Water – Runs Out?

~ IYTARIAS-YC-TIBIARA ~ If You Turn A River Into A Sewer – You Can – Turn It Back Into A River Again

~ F-TEWS-AOWP ~ Fish – The Early Warning System – A Measure Of Water Purity

~ T-ME-HABTPW-WW-AMP ~ The – Middle East – Has Always Been The Place Where – Water Wars – Are Most Probable

~ WSTIIP-B-AAIIWAC-IIN-S-SWSEHOPOFU ~ We Say That It Is Priceless – But – Act As If It Were Absurdly Cheap – It Is Not – Surely – Something We Should Either Hoard Or Prevent Others From Using

~ T-GR-DNOO-MPSG-B-O-I-AP-BHROTS-MTP-TINMWTBH-IIITAOSS-A-PHPAUAOWLIL-A-TIGOPINNWFGTASTBM ~ The – Green Revolution – Depended Not Only On – More Productive Seed Grains – But – On – Irrigation – And – Pesticides – Both Have Run Out Their String – Maximized Their Potential – There Is No More Water To Be Had – Irrigation Is Increasing The Amount Of Saline Soil – And – Pesticides Have Poisoned An Unsettling Amount Of What Land Is Left – And – The Inexorable Grind Of Population Is Now Negating What Few Gains There Are Still To Be Made

~ BINSYWIYDW ~ Benzene Is Not Something That You Want In Your Drinking Water

~ D-TPE-DW-TMUTEOAD-SR-WCBOD ~ Desalination – To Produce Enough – Desal Water – To Make Up The Equivalent Of A Decent-Sized River – Would Cost Billions Of Dollars

~ IYCGMW-WT-ULOI ~ If You Can’t Get More Water – Well Then – Use Less Of It

~ DC ~ Dew Collectors

~ F-DI ~ Fog-Drip Irrigation

~ W-WRICBIF ~ Waste-Water Reuse Is Coming Back Into Favour

~ LFAATT ~ Learn From And Adapt Traditional Techniques

~ IIITS-WV-A-TPISTWH ~ It Is Important To Signal – Water’s Value – And – To Price It So That Waste Hurts

~ PPAAFSOGP ~ Population Projections Are A Familiar Source Of Gloomy Prognostications

~ WS-MNLTW-B-TMCLT-FS-IP-A-TTSOD-TMPP-TITMOP-FSTMMOTDW-SOLD-SUAVI ~ Water Shortages – May Not Lead To War – But – They Most Certainly Lead To – Food Shortages – Increased Poverty – And – To The Spread Of Disease – They Make People Poorer – They Increase The Migrations Of Peoples – Further Straining The Massive Megaslums Of The Developing World – Standards Of Living Deteriorate – Social Unrest And Violence Increase

LARS OSBERG ~ THE AGE OF INCREASING INEQUALITY ~ 2018

~ EIWIYAYCEHSDAPDPC ~ Economic Inequalities Which Increase Year After Year Can Eventually Have Socially Divisive And Potentially Disastrous Political Consequences

~ EPIATEOD ~ Elite Political Influence And The Erosion Of Democracy

~ IIIGTT1%MRTIITPPATETTOM ~ Increasing Income Inequality Gives The Top 1 Percent More Resources To Intervene In The Political Process And To Ensure That Their Opinions Matter

TICETPASPOTVAAQDFTOTGP-DT-‘TT’-A-PI-A-TOOPMO-GTWTATPTPOV-IAWOPCM ~ There Is Clear Evidence The Political And Social Preferences Of The Very Affluent Are Quite Different From Those Of The General Population – Donations To – “Think Tanks” – And – Policy Institutes – And – The Ownership Of Private Media Outlets – Give The Wealthy The Ability To Push Their Point Of View – In A Way Ordinary People Cannot Match

~ IG-IDNTMMTMABDITLOPWHVL ~ In General – It Does Not Take Much Money To Make A Big Difference In The Lives Of People Who Have Very Little

~ TOCSOTLA-A-TWTPVHIR-CAOFP-TFTS-TCHAMHCFTLAMTGLECFTAI ~ The Occasional Cash Shortfalls Of The Less Affluent – And – Their Willingness To Pay Very High Interest Rates – Create An Opportunity For Profit – The Fact That Short-Term Credit Has A Much Higher Cost For The Less Affluent Means They Get Less Effective Consumption From Their Annual Incomes

~ AWAC? ~ And What About Chance?

~ EOTPDIORAMLOE-VW-F-9T47%-OAJ–ETL-EE-WBABHFTLM-TU ~ Estimates Of The Possible Disruptive Impacts Of Robots And Machine Learning On Employment – Vary Widely – From – 9 To 47 Per Cent – Of All Jobs – Even The Low-End Estimate – Would Be A Big Hit For The Labour Market – Technological Unemployment

~ BIMAHTBHRITCATBMF-TAAOBHRFACITPROADG ~ Because Individuals Must Actually Have Their Basic Human Rights If Their Choices Are To Be Meaningfully Free – The Actual Achievement Of Basic Human Rights For All Citizens Is The Primary Responsibility Of A Democratic Government

~ E-VWNANMITPMWTTTEFS ~ Eventually – Voters Whose Needs Are Not Met In The Political Mainstream Will Turn To The Extremes For Solutions

~ IICIEIAGSS-ASME-SDOART-‘GOD’-A-LFSWTDNM ~ Increasing Inequality Causes Increased Economic Instability And Greater Social Stress – Authoritarian Social Movements Emerge – Selling Dreams Of A Return To – “Good Old Days” – And – Looking For Scapegoats When They Do Not Materialize

~ STEPTPI-‘MG’-B-TPCHTDEGFTWNI-TWBARSFNSTB ~ Since The Easiest Policy To Promise Is – “More Growth” – But – That Promise Cannot Hope To Deliver Enough Growth For Those Who Need It – There Will Be A Relentless Search For New Scapegoats To Blame

~ AHRPDNSTESHEI-B-IDSTESHER-A-FTTH-ACMHALAMCOER ~ A Human Rights Perspective Does Not Say That Everyone Should Have Equal Income – But – It Does Say That Everyone Should Have Equal Rights – And – For That To Happen – All Citizens Must Have At Least A Minimum Command Over Economic Resources

~ WAOTA-STWUADISCTWOI-C ~ We All Own The Air – So Those Who Use And Degrade It Should Compensate Those Who Own It – Citizens

~ GAI-B-TIANLOWTIAFIWRCMTRWMTSTWC-PJMBS ~ Guaranteed Annual Income – Because – There Is A New Level Of Worry That In A Future In Which Robots Can Make The Robots Which Make The Stuff That We Consume – Paying Jobs May Be Scarce

~ WWTCDCFTATOFTAFOTF? ~ Where Will The Consumer Demand Come From To Absorb The Output From The Automated Factories Of The Future?

~ AMPWUMWAACOSVITMOTWIWPANCTS-AVOATCOCOTE-ANPJ ~ A Major Problem With Using Market Wages As A Criterion Of Social Value Is That Many Of The Ways In Which People Actually Now Contribute To Society – As Volunteers Or As The Caretakers Of Children Or The Elderly – Are Not Paying Jobs

~ FTATT ~ Fairer Taxes At The Top

~ TAATE-ALITTGP-B-TCOTLPMPDOTAATLPTETA ~ Tax Avoidance And Tax Evasion – Are Largely Invisible To The General Public – Because – The Complexity Of Tax Law Precludes Much Public Discussion Of The Accounting And Tax Law Provisions That Enable Tax Avoidance

NASSIM TALEB ~ ANTIFRAGILE ~ 2012

~ A-TTGFD ~ Antifragile – Things That Gain From Disorder

~ WEACAEAF-YWTBTFAWFTW ~ Wind Extinguishes A Candle And Energizes A Fire – You Want To Be The Fire And Wish For The Wind

~ TA-STBFS:TTAGWET-V-R-D-A-S-A-L-A-R-A-U-Y-ISOTUOTP-TINWFTEOOF ~ The Antifragile – Some Things Benefit From Shocks; They Thrive And Grow When Exposed To – Volatility – Randomness – Disorder – And – Stressors – And – Love – Adventure – Risk – And – Uncertainty – Yet – In Spit Of The Ubiquity Of The Phenomenon – There Is No Word For The Exact Opposite Of Fragile

~ AIBROR-TRRSASTS;TAGB ~ Antifragility Is Beyond Resilience Or Robustness – The Resilient Resists Shocks And Stays The Same; The Antifragile Gets Better

~ AAFADOAS ~ Antifragility And Fragility Are Degrees On A Spectrum

~ WCAADA(AF)UASTOA:ATHMUTDFRE(OCS)IA;TRIF We Can Almost Always Detect Antifragility (And Fragility) Using A Simple Test Of Asymmetry: Anything That Has More Upside Than Downside From Random Events (Or Certain Shocks) Is Antifragile; The Reverse Is Fragile

~ C-IAITPOATN(AC)STHS-DTSO-V-R-A-S-WHT-TW-W-D-O-BU-WHBF-TE-OH-PL-E-AE-MOO-M-S-W-HBHUWT-DPAC-WDPT ~ Crucially – If Antifragility Is The Property Of All Those Natural (and Complex) Systems That Have Survived – Depriving These Systems Of – Volatility – Randomness – And – Stressors – Will Harm Them – They Will – Weaken – Die – Or – Blow Up – We Have Been Fragilizing – The Economy – Our Health – Political Life – Education – Almost Everything – Much Of Our – Modern – Structured – World – Has Been Harming Us With Top-Down Policies And Contraptions – Which Do Precisely This

~ IAET-DFABAAG-EB-UTUTRAOSAD ~ If About Everything Top-Down Fragilizes And Blocks Antifragility And Growth – Everything Bottom-Up Thrives Under The Right Amount Of Stress And Disorder

~ UATEOO-TLFOS-A-GGOC-AO-‘SITG’-SBAATEOOBGTU(OG)F-V-V-A-D-A-EOTTDROLOH-ASA-A-T-C-O-F-O-O-IH ~ Upside At The Expense Of Others – The Largest Fragilizer Of Society – And – Greatest Generator Of Crises – Absence Of – “Skin In The Game” – Some Become Antifragile At The Expense Of Others By Getting The Upside (or Gains) From – Volatility – Variations – And – Disorder – And – Exposing Others To The Downside Risks Of Losses Or Harm – And Such – Antifragility-At-The-Cost-Of-Fragility-Of-Others – Is Hidden

~ IAOND ~ International Association Of Name Droppers

~ WAWTROANCO-IH-WTMPANRDA/OA-TGTSWCPTP-ANPIHHSMN-R-T-TI-TWNPE-ESMC ~ We Are Witnessing The Rise Of A New Class Of – Inverse Heroes – With Too Much Power And No Real Downside And/Or Accountability – They Game The System While Citizens Pay The Price – At No Point In History Have So Many Non-Risk-Takers – That Is – Those With No Personal Exposure – Exerted So Much Control

~ TCERI:TSNHA-FATEOTFOO ~ The Chief Ethical Rule Is The Following: Thou Shalt Not Have Anti-Fragility At The Expense Of The Fragility Of Others

~ CSAFOI-HTD-A-NR(ALMOALL) ~ Complex Systems Are Full Of – Interdependencies – Hard To Detect – And – Nonlinear Responses (A Lot More Or A Lot Less)

~ LIM-A-UME ~ Less Is More – And – Usually More Effective

~ MHREWL-A-TLCBGWAGL Modernity Has Replaced Ethics With Legalese – And – The Law Can Be Gamed With A Good Lawyer

~ IYSFADNSF-YAAF ~ If You See Fraud And Do Not Say Fraud – You Are A Fraud

~ MOTPOSCFTA-‘OPADI’ ~ Many Of The Problems Of Society Come From The Argument – “Other People Are Doing It”

~ TFWT-TAGFD-TRDCTM ~ The Fragile Wants Tranquility – The Antifragile Grows From Disorder – The Robust Doesn’t Care Too Much

~ ASGIC-WMAM-‘CE’-SIT-A-MAMS-TBIVTC ~ As Societies Gain In Complexity – With More And More – “Cutting Edge” – Sophistication In Them – And – More And More Specialization – They Become Increasingly Vulnerable To Collapse

~ HSFTRSOTCIWTULAT ~ Humans Somehow Fail To Recognize Situations Outside The Contexts In Which They Usually Learn About Them

~ LOR-AT-CRMPONS-RIABISLAWINH ~ Layers Of Redundancy – Are The – Central Risk Management Property Of Natural Systems – Redundancy Is Ambiguous Because It Seems Like A Waste If Nothing Happens

~ IINPTCC-IIHY-GO ~ It Is Not Possible To Control Criticism – If It Harms You – Get Out

~ SAI ~ Stressors Are Information

~ MOMLIPCSI ~ Much Of Modern Life Is Preventable Chronic Stress Injury

~ BYFAYSWGYI ~ Both Your Failures And Your Successes Will Give You Information

~ IIHTET-D-DP-T-R-IITF-N-TP ~ It Is Hard To Explain To – Data-Driven People – That – Risk – Is In The Future – Not – The Past

~ AOFLFMA ~ Absence Of Fire Lets Flammable Material Accumulate

~ WNTTI-SS-COC-A-SE ~ We Need To Learn To Think In – Second Steps – Chains Of Consequences – And – Side Effects

~ OOLP:NSWV ~ One Of Life’s Packages: No Stability Without Volatility

~ M-SWTSMOV-A-EWTSMOFI ~ Modernity – Starts With The States Monopoly On Violence – And – Ends With The States Monopoly On Fiscal Irresponsibility

~ AAR-ITL-S-C-A-S-ABIR-BSE ~ As A Rule – Intervening To Limit – Size – Concentration – And – Speed – Are Beneficial In Reducing – Black Swan Events

~ M-DN ~ Media-Driven Neuroticism

~ NSATOAEECIE;BSFTTIN ~ Not Seeing A Tsunami Or An Economic Event Coming Is Excusable; Building Something Fragile To Them Is Not

~ T-CBTAFU-N-GDAAOV Things – Can Be Taken Away From Us – Not – Good Deeds And Acts Of Virtue

~ TFSTACIF-DD-RT-IU-TIB-LETNBSALNAWBI ~ The First Step Toward Antifragility Consists In First – Decreasing Downside – Rather Than – Increasing Upside – That Is By – Lowering Exposure To Negative Black Swans And Letting Natural Antifragility Work By Itself

~ TOIAAOA ~ The Option Is An Agent Of Antifragility

~ FITUO ~ Freedom Is The Ultimate Option

~ O=A+R ~ Option = Asymmetry + Rationality

~ OQ ~ Organized Quacks

~ IICWTU-TCOB-WI-TPOF ~ It Is Completely Wrong To Use – The Calculus Of Benefits – Without Including – The Probability Of Failure

~ BS-E-A-NI-AARO-C-IBP-G-A-TBTC-‘E’ ~ Black Swan – Effects – Are – Necessarily Increasing – As A Result Of – Complexity – Interdependence Between Parts – Globalization – And – The Beastly Thing Called – “Efficiency”

~ TWIGLALP-A-WRMAMOTTHEAI-TAHTE-LAP ~ The World Is Getting Less And Less Predictable – And – We Rely More And More On Technologies That Have Errors And Interactions – That Are Harder To Estimate – Let Alone Predict

~ WN-WVAC-MT-WPALRBDC ~ We Notice – What Varies And Changes More Than – What Plays A Large Role But Doesn’t Change

~ WOD-I-LTPOM ~ Wealth Of Details – Ironically – Leads To Peace Of Mind

~ S-ATYL-RT-CBQA-P-A ~ Subtraction – Adds To Your Life – Removing Things – Can Be Quite A – Potent – Action

~ MT-WHDAFF-NC-O-AS ~ Modern Times – We Have Developed A Fondness For – Neomanic Complication – Over – Archaic Simplicity

~ SITG-MTLC ~ Skin In The Game – Making Talk Less Cheap

~ TIACAA-DAP-MOS-WETH-WHOSITG-WHSTR-UEYO;ICHO(WROI)-YYINL-ISF?-TINPFOMWHS ~ The Intellectual And Commentator As A – Detached And Protected – Member Of Society – Without Exposure To Harm – Without Having One’s Skin In The Game – Without Having Something To Risk – You Express Your Opinions; It Can Hurt Others (Who Rely On It) – Yet You Incur No Liability – Is This Fair? – There Is No Penalty For Opinion Makers Who Harm Society

~ NHPW-TADD-BMV-A-PALR-TIMT ~ Never Have People – Who Talk And Don’t Do – Been More Visible – And – Played A Larger Role – Than In Modern Times

~ SPFTLOTB-B-GNBFT-IYDSTTOAAAT-YCHAP-WIW-TSIC-‘I-B’-WI?-TIUAND-NDAA ~ Society Pays For The Losses Of The Bankers – But – Gets No Bonuses From Them – If You Don’t See This Transfer Of Antifragility As A Theft – You Certainly Have A Problem – What Is Worse – This System Is Called – “incentive-based” – What Incentive? – There Is Upside And No Downside – No Disincentive At All

~ AELISWSOPR ~ An Ethical Life Isn’t So When Stripped Of Personal Risk

~ R-TYFRMB ~ Reader – Thank You For Reading My Book

NASSIM TALEB ~ GLOSSARY ~ ANTIFRAGILE ~ 2012

PB-SIWSANS ~ Procrustean Bed – Situations In Which Simplifications Are Not Simplifications

~ L-B-H-T-FE-TMILATTOMTISTIAD ~ Lecturing-Birds-How-To-Fly Effect – To Make It Look As Though Technology Owes More To Institutional Science Than It Actually Does

~ T-TATTROOL ~ Touristification – The Attempt To Take Randomness Out Of Life

~ BS-ADS-ACOTE-OSAOE ~ Barbell Strategy – A Dual Strategy – A Combination Of Two Extremes – One Safe And One Extreme

~LF-MTW-PPOMALEFTECRW ~ Ludic Fallacy – Mistaking The Well-Posed Problems Of Mathematics And Laboratory Experiments For The Ecologically Complex Real World

~ DC(SITG)-YMOBPAOBTWCTTACB-A-HSTL-IAW-TPACIBW ~ Doxastic Commitment (Soul In The Game) – You Must Only Believe Predictions And Opinions By Those Who Committed Themselves To A Certain Belief – And – Had Something To Lose – In A Way – To Pay A Cost In Being Wrong

~GLF-MTSOIOENK=FA-LVFTO-LT-O-MTWC-‘RI’-ASM ~ Green Lumber Fallacy – Mistaking The Source Of Important Or Even Necessary Knowledge – For Another – Less Visible From The Outside – Less Tractable – One – Many Things We Call – “Relevant Knowledge” – Aren’t So Much

~ EI-FOETA(OP)-RTTR ~ Ethical Inversion – Fitting One’s Ethics To Actions (Or Profession) – Rather Than The Reverse

~ NF-ONTFA-S-O-P-TASOCODF ~ Narrative Fallacy – Our Need To Fit A – Story – Or – Pattern – To A Series Of Connected Or Disconnected Facts

~ SK-YKWIWWMCTYKAE ~ Subtractive Knowledge – You Know What Is Wrong With More Certainty Than You Know Anything Else

~ SP-PTFBRWIFFI-RTNATI ~ Subtractive Prophecy – Predicting The Future By Removing What Is Fragile From It – Rather Than Naively Adding To It

~ LE-AN-IILEWEDOIL ~ Lindy Effect – Anything Nonperishable – Increases In Life Expectancy With Every Day Of Its Life

~ N-ALOCFIOS-FTF-B-A-N-S ~ Neomania – A Love Of Change For Its Own Sake – Forecasting The Future – By – Adding – Not – Subtracting

YUVAL NOAH HARARI ~ 21 LESSONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ~ 2018

~ H-TI-S-RT-I-F-N-O-E-A-TSTS-TB ~ Humans – Think – In – Stories – Rather Than – In – Facts – Numbers – Or – Equations – And – The Simpler The Story – The Better

~ H-WAFBA-IT-T-UTW ~ Humans – Were Always Far Better At – Inventing Tools – Than – Using Them Wisely

~ T-TR-MS-PBOHOOTJM-A-CAMN-‘UC’-LTSAPU ~ The – Technological Revolution – Might Soon – Push Billions Of Humans Out Of The Job Market – And – Create A Massive New – “Useless Class” – Leading To – Social And Political Upheavals

~ IIGAT-MLAR-WCAELOW-IIFFCT-TFEWNU-EAC ~ It Is Generally Agreed That – Machine Learning And Robotics – Will Change Almost Every Line Of Work – It Is Far From Certain That – The Future Economy Will Need Us – Even As Consumers

~ IIDWIIBT-PPW-UBI-TCP-O-UBS-TCP-BOHAAD-B-NMWPYC-TRPIIDW-‘U’-A-‘B’-AM ~ It Is Debatable Whether It Is Better To – Provided People With – Universal Basic Income – The Capitalist Paradise – Or – Universal Basic Services – The Communist Paradise – Both Options Have Advantages And Drawbacks – But – No Matter Which Paradise You Choose – The Real Problem Is In Defining What – “Universal” – And – “Basic” – Actually Mean

~ TQF-MAC-ME-TQFAJ ~ The Quest For – Meaning And Community – Might Eclipse – The Quest For A – Job

~ TBS-C-BPIEI ~ The Biometric Sensor – Converts – Biological Processes Into Electronic Information

~ PGM ~ Precision-Guided Manipulation

~ DD ~ Digital Dictators

~ TRPWR-INTOAI-B-RTNSACOTHM ~ The Real Problem With Robots – Is Not Their Own Artificial Intelligence – But – Rather – The Natural Stupidity And Cruelty Of Their Human Masters

~ VRATW ~ Veteran Robots Against The War

~ D-IIPF-CS-TMOBAI-EDWSRIIARNF-O-HWCTLI-‘DD’ ~ Democracy – In Its Present Form – Cannot Survive – The Merger Of Biotech And Infotech – Either Democracy Will Successfully Reinvent Itself In A Radically New Form – Or – Humans Will Come To Live In – “Digital Dictatorships”

~ HF-WGUTITTAAOAATUAISIHH ~ Human Figureheads – Will Give Us The Illusion That The Algorithms Are Only Advisers And That Ultimate Authority Is Still In Human Hands

~ AI&NS ~ Artificial Intelligence And Natural Stupidity

~ TINRTATAIWGC-B-IAC-AVDT-I-ITATSP-C-ITATF ~ There Is No Reason To Assume That Artificial Intelligence Will Gain Consciousness – Because – Intelligence And Consciousness – Are Very Different Things – Intelligence – Is The Ability To Solve Problems – Consciousness – Is The Ability To Feel

~ FTLFD-PAOTW-WTTHIOTPT-E-AT-G-A-NT-WHUGTS-IR-TT-FC-MC-TMUSIH ~ For The Last Few Decades – People All Over The World – Were Told That Humankind Is On The Path To – Equality – And That – Globalization – And – New Technologies – Will Help Us Get There Sooner – In Reality – The Twenty-First Century – Might Create – The Most Unequal Societies In History

~ B-2100-TR-1%-MONMMOTWW-BA-MOTW-B-C-H ~ By – 2100 – The Richest – 1 Percent – Might Own Not Merely Most Of The World’s Wealth – But Also – Most Of The World’s – Beauty – Creativity – Health

~ IWWTPTCOAWAPITHOASE-TKIT-RTOOD ~ If We Want To Prevent The Concentration Of All Wealth And Power In The Hands Of A Small Elite – The Key Is To – Regulate The Ownership Of Data

~ OACABTFU-TTAIWGB ~ Once Algorithms Choose And Buy Things For Us – The Traditional Advertising Industry Will Go Bust

~ APA-MLABM-A-MELMITST-B-ALAISD-ICBWB ~ A Popular App – May Lack A Business Model – And – May Even Lose Money In The Short Term – But – As Long As It Sucks Data – It Could Be Worth Billions

~ WOTD?-TMWBTMIPQOOE ~ Who Owns The Data? – This May Well Be The Most Important Political Question Of Our Era

~ HHB-IYTTPLMOATYPTWATNTOTOE-YCVYAA-BSS-EAYAPTTOG-B-OYRTHBHB-A-TTSN-R-H-A-SS-IBFMDTJTE-HCYETVOCWRTFSTMICS? ~ Human Have Bodies – If You Think That People Live Mainly Online And That You Provide Them With All The Necessary Tools Of Their Online Existence – You Can View Yourself As A – Beneficial Social Service – Even As You Avoid Paying Taxes To Offline Governments – But – Once You Remember That Human Beings Have Bodies – And – That They Still Need – Roads – Hospitals – And – Sewage Systems – It Becomes Far More Difficult To Justify Tax Evasion – How Can You Extol The Virtues Of Community While Refusing To Financially Support The Most Important Community Services?

~ WMCTMTGODWOWSFO ~ We May Come To Miss The Good Old Days When Online Was Separated From Offline

~ WITOVAAPLF-AA-Y-TOTTAUTSTITOAALDACSFT ~ We Insist That Our Values Are A Precious Legacy From – Ancient Ancestors – Yet – The Only Thing That Allows Us To Say This Is That Our Ancestors Are Long Dead And Cannot Speak For Themselves

~ W-S-I-T-A-P-FMQTCD-W-AMPFMIIOA ~ War – Spreads – Ideas – Technologies – And – People – Far More Quickly Than Commerce Does – War – Also Makes People Far More Interested In One Another

~ ACEITBCFFACI-A-HNHALTSE-NW-CC-A-TD ~ A Common Enemy Is The Best Catalyst For Forging A Common Identity – And – Humankind Now Has At Least Three Such Enemies – Nuclear War – Climate Change – And – Technological Disruption

~ S-TGFCO-2008-TISIRD-WIBIV-A-MEAB ~ Since – The Global Financial Crisis Of – 2008 – The International Situation Is Rapidly Deteriorating – Warmongering Is Back In Vogue – And – Military Expenditures Are Ballooning

~ HS-I-OOTMIFIH-Y-WOTTDI ~ Human Stupidity – Is – One Of The Most Important Forces In History – Yet – We Often Tend To Discount It

~ OPRF-HS-IADO-H ~ One Potential Remedy For – Human Stupidity – Is A Dose Of – Humility

~ DT-TNOG-IV-PTDM-WSNU-TNOG-TJ-OPI-OEA-O-OPH ~ Don’t Take – The Name Of God – In Vain – Perhaps The Deeper Meaning – We Should Never Use – The Name Of God – To Justify – Our Political Interests – Our Economic Ambitions – Or – Our Personal Hatreds

~ TVSR-T-IHABISP-ILACIO ~ The Very Same Religions – That – Inspire Hate And Bigotry In Some People – Inspire Love And Compassion In Others

~ IOT-AM-YDNTBIAMOS-YJNT-D-ADAOS ~ In Order To – Act Morally – You Don’t Need To Believe In Any Myth Or Story – You Just Need To – Develop – A Deep Appreciation Of Suffering

~ QYCA-AUFBFY-T-AYCQ ~ Questions You Cannot Answer – Are Usually Far Better For You – Than – Answers You Cannot Question

~ TOP-R-E-IITSHIATOA-TIITT-HHANRTLOL-BITS-CTPO-AR-PMFH-A-SBFTWCOPAV ~ The Only Place – Rights – Exist – Is In The Stories Humans Invent And Tell One Another – Though It Isn’t True That – Humans Have A Natural Right To Life Or Liberty – Belief In This Story – Curbed The Power Of – Authoritarian Regimes – Protected Minorities From Harm – And – Safeguarded Billions From The Worst Consequences Of Poverty And Violence

~ PRATI-B-TLTI-A-EC-O-L-MF-A-S-CNF-WTBACRASC ~ People Rarely Appreciate Their Ignorance – Because – They Lock Themselves Inside – An – Echo Chamber – Of – Like-Minded Friends – And – Self-Confirming News Feeds – Where Their Beliefs Are Constantly Reinforced And Seldom Challenged

~ MOO-V-ASB-CG-RT-IR-A-WHOTTV-DT-GL ~ Most Of Our – Views – Are Shaped By – Communal Groupthink – Rather Than – Individual Rationality – And – We Hold On To These Views – Due To – Group Loyalty

~ T-GCIMH-RNJF-HAG-BEMS-F-IAI ~ The – Greatest Crimes In Modern History – Resulted Not Just From – Hatred And Greed – But Even More So – From – Ignorance And Indifference

~ IYWT-GGL-RPT-BAA-IAFBTTATT-BTT ~ If You Want To – Gauge Group Loyalty – Requiring People To – Believe An Absurdity – Is A Far Better Test Than Asking Them To – Believe The Truth

~ OOTGFOAI-TDTCOTW-A-TIAT ~ One Of The Greatest Fictions Of All Is – To Deny The Complexity Of The World – And – Think In Absolute Terms

~ F-IYWRI-PGMFI ~ First – If You Want Reliable Information – Pay Good Money For It

~ S-SSTT-TFC:CT/C/C/C ~ Schools – Should Switch To Teaching – The Four C’s: Critical Thinking / Communication / Collaboration / Creativity

~ T-BQFH-I-‘WITMOL?’-B-R-“HDWSS?’-TRTITWIS ~ The – Big Question Facing Humans – Isn’t – “What Is The Meaning Of Life?” – But – Rather – “How Do We Stop Suffering?” – The Realest Thing In The World Is Suffering

YUVAL NOAH HARARI ~ 21 LESSONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ~ 2018

~ D-TEOHHBP ~ Disillusionment – The End Of History Has Been Postponed

~ W-WYGU-YMNHAJ ~ Work – When You Grow Up – You Might Not Have A Job

~ L-BDIWY ~ Liberty – Big Data Is Watching You

~ E-TW-OTD-OTF ~ Equality – Those Who – Own The Data – Own The Future

~ C-HHB ~ Community – Humans Have Bodies

~ C-TIJOCITW ~ Civilization – There Is Just One Civilization In The World

~ N-GPNGA ~ Nationalism – Global Problems Need Global Answers

~ I-SCMBBTO ~ Immigration – Some Cultures Might Be Better Than Others

~ T-DP ~ Terrorism – Don’t Panic

~ W-NUHS ~ War – Never Underestimate Human Stupidity

~ G-DTTNOGIV ~ God – Don’t Take The Name Of God In Vain

~ S-AYS ~ Secularism – Acknowledge Your Shadow

~ I-YKLTYT ~ Ignorance – You Know Less Than You Think

~ J-OSOJMBOOD ~ Justice – Our Sense Of Justice Might Be Out Of Date

~ P-T-SFNLF ~ Post-Truth – Some Fake News Lasts Forever

~ SF-TFINWYSITM ~ Science Fiction – The Future Is Not What You See In The Movies

~ E-CITOC ~ Education – Change Is The Only Constant

~ M-LINAS ~ Meaning – Life Is Not A Story

~ M-JO ~ Mediation – Just Observe

TIMOTHY SNYDER ~ ON TYRANNY ~ 2017

~T:TUOPBASIOG-O-TCOLBRFTOB ~ Tyranny: The Usurpation Of Power By A Single Individual Or Group – Or – The Circumvention Of Law By Rulers For Their Own Benefit

~ DNOIA-MOTPOAIFG ~ Do Not Obey In Advance – Most Of The Power Of Authoritarianism Is Freely Given

~ DI-IIITHUTPD-IDNPT ~ Defend Institutions – It Is Institutions That Help Us To Preserve Decency – Institutions Do Not Protect Themselves

~ TMITATRWCTPTICCODTVI-EWTIEWTHATTWD ~ The Mistake Is To Assume That Rulers Who Came To Power Through Institutions Cannot Change Or Destroy Those Very Institutions – Even When That Is Exactly What They Have Announced That They Will Do

~ BOTO-PS-STM-PSADTRODE-VILASEWYC-CRFO ~ Beware The One-Party State – Support The Multi-Party System And Defend The Rules Of Democratic Elections – Vote In Local And State Elections While You Can – Consider Running For Office

~PB-CBTWR-A-CABR ~ Paper Ballots – Cannot Be Tampered With Remotely – And – Can Always Be Recounted

~ TRFTFOTW-TSOTETROT ~ Take Responsibility For The Face Of The World – The Symbols Of Today Enable The Reality Of Tomorrow

~ RPE-WPLSANE-PCT-JP-BMI ~ Remember Professional Ethics – When Political Leaders Set A Negative Example – Professional Commitments To – Just Practice – Become More Important

~ ANOCS-A-CCDSBIICL ~ Authoritarians Need Obedient Civil Servants – And – Concentration Camp Directors Seek Businessmen Interested In Cheap Labor

~ PE-MGUPWWATT-TSIE-TTINSTA-‘JFO’~ Professional Ethics – Must Guide Us Precisely When We Are Told That – The Situation Is Exceptional – Then There Is No Such Thing As – “Just Following Orders”

~ BWOP ~ Be Wary Of Paramilitaries

~ I-OTGCLUF-ATUICBL-T-TFOPTWTFGBP ~ If – Only The Government Can Legitimately Use Force – And – This Use Is Constrained By Law – Then – The Forms Of Politics That We Take For Granted Become Possible

~ BRIYMBA ~ Be Reflective If You Must Be Armed

~ SO-SHT ~ Stand Out – Someone Has To

~BKTOL-APTPEED-TUYOWOS ~ Be Kind To Our Language – Avoid Pronouncing The Phrases Everyone Else Does – Think Up Your Own Way Of Speaking

~ MAETSYFTI ~ Make An Effort To Separate Yourself From The Internet

~ RB ~ Read Books

~ PIOTFTCTT-WETWWTDRT ~ Politicians In Our Times Feed Their Cliches To Television – Where Even Those Who Wish To Disagree Repeat Them

~ BIT-TAFITAF-INIT-TNOCCP-BTINBUWTDS-INIT-TAIS-TBWPFTBBL ~ Believe In Truth – To Abandon Facts Is To Abandon Freedom – If Nothing Is True – Then No One Can Criticize Power – Because There Is No Basis Upon Which To Do So – If Nothing Is True – Then All Is Spectacle – The Biggest Wallet Pays For The Most Blinding Lights

~ PT-P-F ~ Post-Truth Is Pre-Fascism

~ I-RTSOWIOTIITTHY-TRFWYCWO ~ Investigate – Realize That Some Of What Is On The Internet Is There To Harm You – Take Responsibility For What You Communicate With Others

~ IIYATDFTMYAI-A-OCTICKTMUAS ~ It Is Your Ability To Discern Facts That Makes You An Individual – And – Our Collective Trust In Common Knowledge That Makes Us A Society

~ WTT-DW-NCHA-IBTLOD-TWDW-BTM ~ Within The Two-Dimensional Internet World – New Collectivities Have Arisen – Invisible By The Light Of Day – Tribes With Distinct Worldviews – Beholden To Manipulations

~ AY-TIACTYCFO-IITOTKYO-LFC ~ And Yes – There Is A Conspiracy That You Can Find Online – It Is The One To Keep You Online – Looking For Conspiracies

~ BYDT-‘MM’-NTIINL-TM-IIDTIMAE-A-AJTIEAD ~ Before You Deride The – “Mainstream Media” – Note That It Is No Longer – The Mainstream – It Is Derision That Is Mainstream And Easy – And – Actual Journalism That Is Edgy And Difficult

~ MECAST-AWTSITWOS-BDSB-A-UWYSASNT ~ Make Eye Contact And Small Talk – A Way To Stay In Touch With Our Surroundings – Break Down Social Barriers – And – Understand Whom You Should And Should Not Trust

~ ITMDOT-TWEAS-GKPWTCT ~ In The Most Dangerous Of Times – Those Who Escape And Survive – Generally Know People Whom They Can Trust

~ PCP-ITFNCFTAITT-DW-NWC ~ Practice Corporeal Politics – If Tyrants Feel No Consequences For Their Actions In The Three-Dimensional World – Nothing Will Change

~ EAPL-TS-TH-OWTHY-TNTHH ~ Establish A Private Life – Tyrants Seek – The Hook – On Which To Hang You – Try Not To Have Hooks

~ WWTAAIIMODRAMTACBTAS-WPITDOOOPO ~ When We Take An Active Interest In Matters Of Doubtful Relevance At Moments That Are Chosen By Tyrants And Spooks – We Participate In The Demolition Of Our Own Political Order

~ CTGC-TYWHMAFCTSCSAHOTDG ~ Contribute To Good Causes – Then You Will Have Made A Free Choice That Supports Civil Society And Helps Others To Do Good

~ LFPIOC ~ Learn From Peers In Other Countries

~ LFDW-BATTUOTW-E-A-T-BATFNO-EAE-BAA-TTUOPV ~ Listen For Dangerous Words – Be Alert To The Use Of The Words – Extremism – And – Terrorism – Be Alive To Fatal Notions Of – Emergency And Exception – Be Angry About – The Treacherous Use Of Patriotic Vocabulary

~ BCWTUA-TSTR-TEOCAB-TRTAFT-ASO-ITOT-DNFFI ~ Be Calm When The Unthinkable Arrives – The Sudden Disaster That Requires – The End Of Checks And Balances – The Right To A Fair Trial – And So On – Is The Oldest Trick – Do Not Fall For It

~ BAP-SAGE-FGTC-TWNI ~ Be A Patriot – Set A Good Example – For Generations To Come – They Will Need It

~ BACAYC-INOUIPT-DFF-T-AOUW-DUT ~ Be As Courageous As You Can – If None Of Us Is Prepared To – Die For Freedom – Then – All Of Us Will – Die Under Tyranny

~ T-POI-IA-S-IIC ~ The – Politics Of Inevitability – Is A – Self-Induced Intellectual Coma