STEVEN JOHNSON ~ FARSIGHTED ~ 2018

~ TATMIACDIASTATEAOOL:WE;DR;CL;EE ~ The Ability To Make Informed And Creative Decisions Is A Skill That Applies To Every Aspect Of Our Lives: Work Environments; Domestic Roles; Civic Lives; Economic Existence

~ I-O-C-O-I-COTUSFWWROOT-DC ~ Intelligence – Or – Confidence – Or – Intuition – Can Only Take Us So Far When We Reach One Of Those – Difficult Crossroads

~ WTTF-FTTOOCD-SOTJTLTT-B-S-WIMM-WNTRTT ~ We Tend To Fast-Forward To The Outcomes Of Complex Decisions – Skipping Over The Journey That Led To Them – But – Sometimes – When It Matters Most – We Need To Rewind The Tape

~ BR ~ Bounded Rationality

~ ‘GT’-MOTTTHBDTACD-MHBSETSA-TPBSOBO-GB-A-TU-TWROKTAW-CGP ~ “GroupThink” – Many Of The Techniques That Have Been Developed To Augment Complex Decision-Making Have Been Specifically Engineered To Steer Around – The Potential Blind Spots Or Biases Of – Group Behavior – And – To Uncover – The Wide Range Of Knowledge That A Well-Curated Group Possesses

~ E-L-TD-IA-S-OA-F:U-NTBR-SDFIPTWCSIIFC ~ Every – Long-Term Decision – Is A – Snowflake – Or A – Fingerprint: Unique – Never To Be Repeated – So Different From Its Peers That We Can’t Shovel It Into Formulaic Categories

~ MTAE-WWFOCOOLHC-WNTSIOIOT-WFE-TIWIUADBIRSPC-BTIW-T-ISATWTDBFTP-IAISP-TWOSCBT ~ More Than Anything Else – When We Find Ourselves Confronting One Of Life’s Hard Choices – We Need To See It On Its Own Terms – With Fresh Eyes – There Is Wisdom In Understanding A Decision Because It Resemble Some Past Crossroads – But There Is Wisdom – Too – In Seeing All The Ways The Decision Breaks From The Past – In Appreciating Its Singular Properties – This Way Of Seeing Can Be Taught

~ TBS ~ The Blind Spot

~ ITTUAPWMIV-IOIFUTPATRED-SODIBOO-PAT-OSMTRBTUWTAOTS-POMTRDILHTMSOATDI-BIIJAITRTHTHOUIYN-TUT ~ In Trying To Understand A Problem With Many Interacting Variables – It’s Often Impossible For Us To Perceive All The Relevant Elements Directly – So Our Decision Is Built Out Of – Proxies And Translators – Other Specialized Minds That Report Back To Us With Their Assessment Of The Situation – Part Of Making The Right Decision Is Learning How To Make Sense Of All Those Different Inputs – But – It Is Just As Important To Recognize The Holes That Have Opened Up In Your Network – The Unreliable Translators

~ WFAD-TI-M-I-V-PHATTPO-‘A’-V-A-MTDBOTE-B-FDTMRFY-IMSTEOP ~ When Facing A Decision – That Involves – Multiple – Independent – Variables – People Have A Tendency To Pick One – “Anchor” – Variable – And – Make Their Decision Based On That Element – But – For Decisions That May Reverberate For Years – It Makes Sense To Expand Our Perspective

~ ID-DACD-CHETTCOTI-TCOE-SC-IH-TIFHC ~ Influence Diagrams – Diagramming A Complex Decision – Can Help Elucidate The True Complexity Of The Issue – The Chain Of Effects – Sometimes Called – Impact Highways – That Inevitably Follow Hard Choices

~ D-EFDHIOUM-OC-A-TAOMTCWAMWAPLNIFTMTMSET-B-IIDTKOKVRTSTSAITI-A-TBWTDTVITGDPOEOTP ~ Diversity – Every Farsighted Decision Has Its Own Unique Map – Of Course – And – The Art Of Making Those Choices With As Much Wisdom As Possible Lies Not In Forcing That Map To Match Some Existing Template – But – Instead In Developing The Kind Of Keen Vision Required To See The Situation As It Truly Is – And – The Best Way To Develop That Vision Is To Get Different Pairs Of Eyes On The Problem

~ TMIEI-TDOPYA-TDODISSTIATAEWTDPBATTGHNRETTCAH ~ The Most Important Element Is – The Diversity Of Perspectives You Assemble – The Power Of Diversity Is So Strong That It Appears To Apply Even When The Divers Perspectives Being Added To The Group Have No Relevant Expertise To The Case At Hand

~ HG-T-TCTDTQ ~ Homogeneous Groups – Tend – To Come To Decisions Too Quickly

~ YCETDOAEG-WBIO-SBD-‘ER’-TEOTPBOTKTHTBTTD-IOLFTCGOSK-PWETSTUPOTC ~ You Can Enhance The Diversity Of An Existing Group – Without Bringing In Outsiders – Simply By Designating – “Expert Roles” – To Each Of The Participants Based On The Knowledge They Happen To Bring To The Discussion – Instead Of Looking For The Common Ground Of Shared Knowledge – Participants Were Empowered To Share Their Unique Perspective On The Choice

~ STEWTBWITBCYAR ~ Sometimes The Easiest Way To Be Wrong Is To Be Certain You Are Right

~ TIWIBAAMMOTSYATTN-B-TIAACKOWIITBSOTM-TPWYDHC-EBYDHTRSOSAY-OBSEOTSIFU ~ There Is Wisdom In Building An Accurate Mental Map Of The System You Are Trying To Navigate – But There Is Also A Crucial Kind Of Wisdom In Identifying The Blank Spots On The Map – The Places Where You Don’t Have Clarity – Either Because You Don’t Have The Right Set Of Stakeholders Advising You – Or Because Some Element Of The Situation Is Fundamentally Unknowable

~ APTRTCLTOTBAPSOML-NJBIAOTGHSTTTI-B-BTVAOTAHCYAASMYTAWYMBM-CUWNC-TUP ~ Asking People To Rate Their Confidence Level Turns Out To Be A Productive Strategy On Multiple Levels – Not Just Because It Allows Others To Gauge How Seriously To Take Their Information – But – Because The Very Act Of Thinking About How Certain You Are About Something Makes You Think About What You Might Be Missing – Coming Up With New Choices – The Undiscovered Path

~ OE ~ Optimal Extremism

~ MSSCFTTFOA-‘E’-P-FFT-C-C-W-ASWEPANGAMVIASIOFC-OC-TAMEPTTOTB-DE-O-W ~ Most Significant Social Change First Takes The Form Of An – “extreme” – Position – Far From The – Centrist – Conventional – Wisdom – A Society Where Extreme Positions Are Not Granted A Meaningful Voice Is A Society Incapable Of Fundamental Change – Of Course – There Are Many Extreme Positions That Turn Out To Be – Dead-Ends – Or – Worse

~ SF~ SuperForecasters

~ FTLV-YNTDOMSFC For The Long View – You Need To Draw On Multiple Sources For Clues

~ RCT ~ Randomized Controlled Trial

~ S-MUBAP-A-SPMUBD-M ~ Simulations – Make Us Better At Predicting – And – Successful Predictions Make Us Better Decision-Makers

~ SP-YB-OMWTGB-OWTGW-A-OWTGW ~ Scenario Plans – You Build – One Model Where Things Get Better – One Where They Get Worse – And – One Where They Get Weird

~ PM-ITTSIGTD-A-ITCTWBRFTFD ~ PreMortem – Imagine That The Subject Is Going To Die – And – Imagine The Causes That Will Be Responsible For That Future Death

~ RT ~ Red Teams

~ HCAOHBTIOPLIMW-ASOATITI-THTTEAMCFSEP-TOTBAET ~ Hard Choices Are Often Hard Because They Impact Other People’s Lives In Meaningful Ways – And So Our Ability To Imagine The Impact – To Think Through The Emotional And Material Consequences From Someone Else’s Perspective – Turns Out To Be An Essential Talent

~ AWOMUITFPTAMAYEOT-RFTDTL ~ Another Way Of Mitigating Uncertainty Is To Favor Paths That Allow Modifications After You’ve Embarked On Them – Room For Tinkering Down The Line

~ Supercomputers Have Started Taking On The Role That In Ancient Times Belonged To The Oracles: To Peer Into The Future

~ WLIAS-A-SATKUFTLV ~ We Live In A Short-Attention-Span Age That Keeps Us From The Long View

~DGMSD ~ Diverse Groups Make Smarter Decisions

~ TLV ~ The Long View

~ WGTD? ~ Who Gets To Decide?

~ WITIO-D-IAIMG-THU-D-AAS-WOLSB ~ We Invented The Institution Of – Democracy – In All Its Many Guises – To Help Us – Decide – As A Society – What Our Laws Should Be

~ MIP-TIWO-MFCAAS-FT-WINWODO-CIEFUTT ~ Maybe It’s Possible – To Invent Ways Of – Making Farsighted Choices As A Society – Faster Than – We Invent New Ways Of Destroying Ourselves – Certainly It’s Essential For Us To Try

HARRY FRANKFURT ~ ON BULLSHIT ~ 2005

~ OOTMSFOOCITTISM-BS ~ One Of The Most Salient Features Of Our Culture Is That There Is So Much – BullShit

~ LOCTACW-T-ITHTRA-T-EOB ~ Lack Of Connection To A Concern With – Truth – Indifference To How Things Really Are – The – Essence Of Bullshit

~ IDST-BS-IA-KOB-IICT-B-S-TT-TAL ~ It Does Seem That – BullShitting – Involves A – Kind Of Bluff – It Is Closer To – Bluffing – Surely – Than To – Telling A Lie

~ TEO-BS-INTII-F-BTII-P ~ The Essence Of – BullShit – Is Not That It Is – False – But That It Is – Phony

~ AFAOTENO-BS-IIPWCWTT-INNB-F ~ A Fundamental Aspect Of The Essential Nature Of – BullShit – It Is Produced Without Concern With The Truth – It Need Not Be – False

~ T-BS-DNR-TAOTT-AT-L-D-A-O-I-[S]H-PNATIAA-BVOT-BS-IAG-EOTT-T-L-A ~ The – BullShitter – Does Not Reject – The Authority Of The Truth – As The – Liar – Does – And – Oppose – It – [S]He – Pays No Attention To It At All – By Virtue Of This – BullShit – Is A Greater – Enemy Of The Truth – Than – Lies – Are

~ BS-IUWCR-S-T-TWKW[S]HITA ~ BullShit – Is Unavoidable Whenever Circumstances Require – Someone – To – Talk Without Knowing What [S]He Is Talking About

~ TPO-BS-ISWAPOOOTSASTEH[H]KOTFTARTTT ~ The Production Of – BullShit – Is Stimulated Whenever A Person’s Obligations Or Opportunities To Speak About Some Topic Exceed His[Her] Knowledge Of The Facts That Are Relevant To That Topic

DAVID BOLLIER ~ BRAND NAME BULLIES ~ 2005

~ TQTOACC ~ The Quest To Own And Control Culture

~ WWOCPOT-CC-AFATU-IIB-PALU-TSOTPIR ~ What Was Once Considered Part Of The – Cultural Commons – Available For All To Use – Is Increasingly Being – Privatized And Locked Up – The Scope Of This Plunder Is Remarkable

~ T-OOC-NET-LOTA-DSAC-AE-S ~ The – Ownership Of Culture – Now Extends To – Letters Of The Alphabet – Distinctive Sounds And Colors – And Even – Scents

~ TTU-EW-IA-NC-EIA-F-T-W-EF-PANP-A-YEA-SCU-AZOT-II ~ Try To Use – Existing Works – In A – New Creation – Even In A – Fleeting – Partial – Way – Even For – Personal And Noncommercial Purposes – And – You Enter A – Shadowy Cultural Underground – A Zone Of The Illegal Imagination

~ WWGD? ~ What Would Groucho Do?

~ M-P/M/W-BWTWA-‘Q’-ETIIEIAFSTBATQT ~ Many – Painters / Musicians / Writers – Balk When Their Works Are – “Quoted” – Even Though It Is Essential In A Free Society To Be Able To Quote Them

~ O-LC ~ Over-Lawyered Corporation

~ TRQ-H-IW-FSAC-BT-E-OCT-CI ~ The Real Question – However – Is Whether – Free Speech And Culture – Belong To – Everyone – Or Chiefly To – Commercial Interests

~ CATL-IOGNTBR-ICNTBEMTE-TVAFFOIACNTBP-TPROAAUMBH ~ Copyright And Trademark Law – Its Original Goals Need To Be Restored – Individual Creators Need To Be Empowered More Than Ever – The Volume And Free Flow Of Information And Creativity Need To Be Protected – The Public’s Rights Of Access And Use Must Be Honored

~ WMSANBOPAPITTAOTSDOTIADT ~ We Must Strike A New Balance Of Private And Public Interests That Takes Account Of The Special Dynamics Of The Internet And Digital Technology

~ AAC:UOAD ~ Art And Culture: Use Only As Directed

~ CC-SIT-‘VA’-W-TDF-TUSOCW ~ Copyright Champions – Systematically Ignore The – “Value Added” – Wealth – That Derives From – The Unmetered Sharing Of Creative Works

~ ACDUACC-F-I-I-A-D ~ All Creators Depend Upon A Cultural Commons – For – Inspiration – Imitation – And – Derivation

~ F-AWWIRBAA-DW-CB-G-AMA-T-FTCAL-NC-GEI ~ For – Artists Whose Work Is Reused By Another Artist – Derivative Works – Can Be – Gifts – As Much As – Theft

~ A-ACSFCTVASOMC ~ Appropriation – A Crucial Strategy For Critiquing The Values And Sensibilities Of Mainstream Culture

~ CL-HLRA-PD’-B-IAPI-TSOS-FT-JE-IILTBC-P-N-A-G-TMCTIHMOTOWTPU ~ Copyright Law – Has Long Recognized A – “Parody Defense” – But – If A Parody Is – Too Sly Or Subtle – For The – Judicial Eye – It Is Likely To Be Considered – Piracy – Not – Art – Generally – The Most Critical Test Is How Much Of The Original Work The Parody Uses

~ SAOLADTPA-T-‘D’-O-‘T’ ~ Small Armies Of Lawyers Are Dedicated To Protecting Against – Trademark – “Dilution” – Or – “Tarnishment”

~ ACO-EPCIKAC-ICO-TPI ~ A Crush Of – Expansive Property Claims In Knowledge And Creativity – Is Crowding Out – The Public Interest

~ TVO-FA-SFT-‘GE’-O-TFC;CISAAFTMBATFCAMOTC ~ The Vitality Of – Folk Art – Stems From The – “Gift Economy” – Of – The Folk Community; Creativity Is Seen As A Gift That Must Be Allowed To Freely Circulate Among Members Of The Community

~ SCCAETTAN-‘PI’-F-CL-TEI ~ Stunning Creativity Can Arise Even Though There Are No – “Property Incentives” – From – Copyright Law – To Encourage It

~ SCBATOOICBU ~ Should Companies Be Allowed To Own Online Identities Created By Users?

~ OC-HB-VS ~ Online Citizens – Have Become – Virtual Serfs

~ TPL ~ Trademarking Public Life

~ TPOBE ~ The Power Of Public Exposure

~ P-IACGOHS-EWTFPARS-SSAA-FU-W-OAN ~ Parody – Is A Classic Genre Of Human Societies – Even When The Factual Patterns Are Remarkably Similar – Some Spoofs Are Adjudged – Fair Use – While – Others Are Not

~ I-10%-OY-A-DGT-P-IMBI ~ If – 10 Percent – Of Your – Audience – Doesn’t Get The – Parody – It May Be Illegal

~ TD ~ Trademark Dilution

~ TIT-TL-AA-ANM-O-AGWOP-IANO ~ The Idea That – Trademark Law – Allows An – Absolute National Monopoly – On – A Given Word Or Phrase – Is A New One

~ TRP-OC-IT-LCDLTBCOAPSABATW ~ The Real Point – Of Course – Is That – Large Corporations Don’t Like To Be Criticized On A Public Stage As Big As The Web

~ YEWTROPNIOCP-TIAODT-TLOMC-CTIUCTCO-‘A’-M ~ Yet Even With The Rise Of Powerful New Instruments Of Cultural Pluralism – The Internet And Other Digital Technologies – The Leviathans Of Mass Culture – Continue To Insist Upon Controlling The Circulation Of – “Authorized” – Meanings

~ CL-SNBATIW-CDP ~ Copyright Law – Should Not Be Allowed To Interfere With – Core Democratic Principles

~ F-D-A-O-COI-AA-SR-A-PG:TIEWEHATH;DIVWTAC ~ Facts – Data – And – Other – Compilations Of Information – Are A – Shared Resource – A – Public Good: That Is Enriched When Everyone Has Access To Them; Diminished In Value When They Are Tightly Controlled

~ CM ~ Copyright Maximalists

~ YMNTYRDNT ~ You May Not Teach Your Robot Dog New Tricks

~ TFCAPAWT-AFOIPL-MSCW-P-TIINITTTD ~ There Finally Comes A Point At Which The – Absurd Frontiers Of Intellectual Property Law – Merge So Completely With – Parody – That It Is Nearly Impossible To Tell The Difference

~ DTSACOTW-CM-TTIT-AACI-O-Q-S-CC-A-TUO-PW ~ Determined To Secure Absolute Control Over Their Works – Copyright Maximalists – Tend To Ignore The – Artistic And Civic Importance – Of – Quotation – Sharing – Creative Collaboration – And – Transformation Uses Of – Prior Works

~ TGCL ~ The Great Cultural Lockdown

~ N-TBNWO-SCC-HSSIFAODS-PT-R-S-R-C-A-C-AB-CF ~ Naturally – This – Brave New World – Of – Strictly Controlled Content – Has Some Serious Implications For An Open Democratic Society – Permission To – Read – Share – Reuse – Collaborate – And – Create – All Become – Conditional Freedoms

~ ALD ~ Aggressive Litigation Dragnets

~ L-POAO-FIT-E-F-CA-T-PM-IAGWTE-L-E-A-DC-NTM-STMFB-B ~ Libraries – Part Of An Old-Fashioned Idea That – Easy – Free – Citizen Access – To – Printed Material – Is A Great Way To Encourage – Literacy – Education – And – Democratic Culture – Not To Mention – Seed The Market For Book-Buying

~ TMTAPRTEIIIAS ~ The Mania To Assign Property Rights To Every Imaginable Intangible Is A Sickness

~ OTSOFCG ~ Owning The Smell Of Freshly Cut Grass

~ T-NFITCOL-I-SE ~ The – Next Frontier In The Commodification Of Life – Is – Sensory Experience

~ PL-HTRTA-NI-B-NAN-IOTQF-PP-B-APBPNJ-PI-B-II-A-BM-TSHER-EITCSFAGPID-ICNBUTISI

~ Patent Law – Has Traditionally Required That Any – New Invention – Be – Novel And Nonobvious – In Order To Qualify For – Patent Protection – But – As Patents Began Protecting Not Just – Physical Inventions – But – Intangible Ideas – And – Business Methods – Their Scope Has Expanded Radically – Even If The Claimed Scope For A Given Patent Is Dubious – It Can Nonetheless Be Used To Intimidate Supposed Infringers

~ BO-SSFGP-TBWDNNRTAIOGIA-TPVOP-IMI-IA-LT-A-BC-IDWC ~ Because Of – Slacker Standards For Granting Patents – The Business World Does Not Necessarily Regard Them As Indicative Of Genuine Innovation Anymore – The Practical Value Of Patents – In Many Instances – Is A – Legal Threat – And – Bargaining Chip – In Dealings With Competitors

~ AWORO-CP-IT-POCACAL-F-WMCIUCRA’BP’ ~ A Whole Other Realm Of – Controversial Patents – Involves The – Patenting Of Common Agricultural Crops And Life-Forms – Which Many Critics In Underdeveloped Countries Regard As – “Biopiracy”

~ A-W-EG-CBA-I-AA-DLRA ~ A – Well-Executed Gag – Can Be As – Illuminating – As A – Dozen Law Review Articles

~ DT-TTTIPLHTOTPG-ANMT-ATPI-I-STTSAGM ~ Despite The – Troubling Trajectory That Intellectual Property Law Has Taken Over The Past Generation – A New Movement To – Assert The Public Interest – Is – Starting To Take Shape And Gain Momentum

~ WNTDA-NL-TEWT-PD-ISIT-C-C-D-A-C ~ We Need To Develop A – New Language – That Explains Why The – Public Domain – Is So Indispensable To – Creativity – Culture – Democracy – And – Commerce

~ RTATAVRF-‘IO’-WNA-EAPPL-TUTVO-‘PK’-A-AST-PARI ~ Rather Than Assume That All Value Results From – “Individual Originality” – We Need An – Economics And Public Policy Language – That Understands The Value Of – “Public Knowledge” – And – Affirmatively Seeks To – Protect And Replenish It

AJIT VARKI + DANNY BROWER ~ DENIAL ~ 2013

~ EAOTWIDOTINOFHWTDATP ~ Events And Outcomes That We Initially Dread Often Turn Into New Opportunities For Happiness When They Do Actually Take Place

~ CP-IANP-A-LH-AMRITDOTM-AWMFAFAFOOWOGU-A-AWBFO-TV&C-IIHTIT-CMD-HNBUSC ~ Childhood Play – Is A Natural Phenomenon – And – Likely Has – A Major Role In The Development Of The Mind – As We Move Further And Further Away From Our Original Ways Of Growing Up – And – As We Become Fixated On – TV And Computers – It Is Hard To Imagine That – Children’s Mental Development – Has Not Been Undergoing Significant Changes

~ W-TPAP-MCT-I-CC-TII-CATDS ~ While – The Public And Politicians – May Choose To – Ignore – Climate Change – The Insurance Industry – Cannot Afford To Do So

~ PECDE-TFITWHAC-AVDE-WOC-OTOAOPTWH ~ Planet Earth Climate Destabilization Experiment – The Fact Is That We Humans Are Conducting – A Very Dangerous Experiment – With Our Climate – On The One And Only Planet That We Have

~ TPO-O-HGFBWRTBADISC-TCANSOOR-BA-AOGCD ~ The Problem Of – Overpopulation – Has Gone From Being Well Recognized To Being Almost Denied In Some Countries – The Consequences Are Not Simply Overconsumption Of Resources – But Also – Acceleration Of Global Climate Disruption

~ B-A-FL-I-PGSAED-S-I-FLAI-CS-PGMCUC ~ But – As – Female Literacy – Increases – Population Growth Stops And Even Declines – So – If – Female Literacy And Independence – Can Spread – Population Growth May Come Under Control

~ OCBALAT-OIRD-CWORTA-VGT-WWBF-GCOASNBS-HST-WWNLAL-TLFTFFOTD-ILPBOON-RD ~ One Can Build A Logical Argument That – Our Innate Reality Denial – Coupled With Our Runaway Technological Achievements – Virtually Guarantees That – We Will Be Facing – Global Calamities On A Scale Never Before Seen – History Suggests That – We Will Not Learn Any Long-Term Lessons From The First Few Of These Disasters – In Large Part Because Of Our Nemesis – Reality Denial

~ B-DAROR-CHPPEO-P-S-C-N-A-G-M-IOW-TAMVATTUHC-EWCW-OATIWTMOO ~ Both – Denial And Recognition Of Reality – Can Have Powerful Positive Effects On – Personal – Social – Communal – National – And – Global – Matters – In Other Words – There Are Many Valuable Aspects To This Unusual Human Capacity – Especially When Combined With – Our Ability To Identify With The Minds Of Others

~ IAW-WC-BVT-LEDAIIWYL-A-REM ~ It’s A Well-Worn Cliche – But Very True – Live Each Day As If It Were Your Last – And – Relish Every Moment

~ WHACO-D-D-M-AE-C-SR-FE-GOE-P ~ We Humans Are Capable Of – Deliberately – Distorting – Modifying – And Even – Changing – Some Realities – For Either – Good Or Evil – Purposes

JUSTIN FOX ~ THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET ~ 2009

~ ECF-TCAJOMP-CWC-DOR ~ Early Claims For – The Correctness And Justness Of Market Prices – Came With Caveats – Doses Of Realism

~ T-MOTRM-IIAMOGP-OT-MOTT-ERPW-BIIN-AM-AO-T-WTTL-CLTASOT ~ The – Myth Of The Rational Market – It Is A Myth Of Great Power – One That – Much Of The Time – Explains Reality Pretty Well – But It Is Nonetheless – A Myth – An Oversimplification – That – When Taken Too Literally – Can Lead To All Sorts Of Trouble

~ L-P-I-FIBTMOTW-E-BMAMCW-IWRRO-HB-IOT-BBMO-I ~ Like – Physicists – Ignoring – Friction – In Building Their Models Of The World – Economists – Became More And More Comfortable With – Ignoring Widely Recognized Realities Of – Human Behavior – In Order To – Build Better Models Of – It

~ E-WMAPO-TAW-AF-TR-WDAWTFWT-WF-TIFOTSOEHDC-AAAOTY-MY-JAOO-WFTNLATFWWGO-BABS-E ~ Equations – Were Memorized And Passed On – The Accompanying Words – And Often – The Real-World Data Against Which The Formulas Were Tested – Were Forgotten – This Increasing Focus On The Mathematical Side Of Economics Has Been Decried – Again And Again Over The Years – Mostly By – Journalists And Other Outsiders – Who Found Themselves No Longer Able To Follow What Was Going On – But Also By Some – Economists

~ TWSLOP-IID-WFMHASRV ~ There Were Still Lots Of People – Interested In Debating – Whether Financial Markets Had Any Socially Redeeming Value

~ W-WTS-RWIED-AT-WD ~ We – Want To See – Regular Waves In Economic Data – And Thus – We Do

~ A-NP-HBA-A-TWDWTWWI-WNLW-NLC-NLC-E-BGWTQ-POS-TBTA-RS ~ A – New Paradigm – Had Been Accepted – And – Those Who Didn’t Want To Work Within It – Were No Longer Welcome – No Longer Could – Economists – Be Grouped With Those Quarrelsome – Psychologists Or Sociologists – They Belonged To A – Real Science

~ TS-FS-WCT-YCP-FSPM-BLA-PSPM-WETIT-FSV-CBPBLA-PSV ~ The Same – Finance Scholars – Who Claimed That – You Couldn’t Predict – Future Stock Price Movements – By Looking At – Past Stock Price Movements – Were Embracing The Idea That – Future Stock Volatility – Could Be Predicted By Looking At – Past Stock Volatility

~ ES-TGD-TDRATTFRHD-TRWFIAIWATD-TRTNOFBTCBM ~ Ever Since – The Great Depression – The Dominant Regulatory Approach To Taming Financial Risk Had Been – To Restrict What Financial Institutions And Investors Were Allowed To Do – To Reduce The Number Of Financial Bets That Could Be Made ~ Arguing For – The Freedom To Create Infinite Varieties Of New Financial Instruments – Because – Equilibrium Theory – Said – It Would Bring The Economic World Closer To Perfection

~ D-B-OOTGFSOTNQC-CIAWRABOIO ~ Derivatives – Became – One Of The Great Financial Stories Of The Next Quarter Century – Chronicling It Adequately Would Require A Book Of Its Own

~ IWC-PI-AIWAAT-HA-TROTSM ~ It Was Called – Portfolio Insurance – And It Was An Attempt To – Hedge Away – The Risk Of The Stock Market

~ NN-BTFIWBI-E-IT-1970S-A-EBTSHMSF ~ Human Nature – Begins To Find Its Way Back Into – Economics – In The – 1970s – And – Economists Begin To Study How Markets Sometimes Fail

~ I-IWI-TW-IAMORI-BANT-SAIWHATTSI-A-TCTTSC-W-E-T-UI-O-I-O-B-MCNE ~ If – Information Were Inexpensive – There Would – In A Market Of Rational Investors – Be Almost No Trading – Since All Investors Would Have Access To The Same Information – And – Thus Come To The Same Conclusions – Without – Expensive-To-Unearth Information – Or – Irrationality – Or – Both – Markets Could Not Exist

~ WAOOTM-OTIDSN-A-ATRWPAFR ~ We Are Often Of Two Minds – One That Impatiently Demands Satisfaction Now – And – Another That Rationally Weighs Present And Future Rewards

~ BE ~ Behavioral Economics

~ RWRB-NDM-PCCWTPG-PWMC-EMPC-E-M-PPD-ISOIPAT-ABT-TR-CBMA-MQ-S-R-C-ITO-SCN ~ Regulations Were Rolled Back – New Derivatives Markets – Provided Countless Cheap Ways To Place Bets – Paradise Was Moving Closer – Ever More Powerful Computers – Ever-More-Plentiful Price Data – In Search Of Identifiable Patterns And Trends – A Belief That – The Risks – Could Be Managed – And – Managed Quantitatively – Some – Risks – Could – It Turned Out – Some Could Not

~ TCO-1987-EBFITRFVOR-B-ARB-TFR-AAFR-1987-WT-FAD-O-TIIOMR-MMIF-IWNTBTL ~ The Crash Of – 1987 – Exposes Big Flaws In The Rational Finance View Of Risk – But – A Rescue By – The Federal Reserve – Averts A Full Reexamination – 1987 – Was The – First Alarming Demonstration – Of – The Inherent Instability Of Mathematical Risk-Management Models In Finance – It Was Not To Be The Last

~ IT-WLMADFTS-TTW-TBSB-RO-B-TCWBJF ~ Irrational Traders – Would Lose Money And Disappear From The Scene – The Thinking Went – To Be Supplanted By – Rational Ones – But – This Claim Was Basically Just Folklore

~ G-RLTMEAWS-HI-BFSR-DN ~ Growth – Reached Levels That Many Economists Assumed Would Spark – Higher Inflation – But For Some Reason – Did Not

~ KYCAPOT-A-CUAMYC-IARA-IWE-IFPFTFAPN-M-DF-I-MWW-TMCGI ~ Keep Your Commitments And Promises On Time – And – Clean Up Any Mess You Created – It’s A Reasonable Argument – Incentives Weren’t Enough – If Market Participants Failed To Follow A Particular Non-Market-Determined Norm – Integrity – Markets Wouldn’t Work – The Market Couldn’t Govern Itself

~ AE-GFMBAC-TH-HI-SNFPOT-TMP-WETCO-VUTRO ~ Almost Every – Great Financial Market Bubble And Crash – Through History – Has Involved – Some New Financial Product Or Technology – That Market Participants – Without Experience To Call On – Vastly Underestimate The Risk Of

~ ILUWTNTFWT-TSE-WATWWNBATDSEFAESB-FR-WBPOT-ARO-EAI-WPART-OH-SW-M ~ It Leaves Us With The Need To Find Ways To – Temper Speculative Excess – While Acknowledging That We Won’t Necessarily Be Able To Distinguish Speculative Excess From An Entirely Sustainable Boom – Financial Regulation – Will Be Part Of That – A Rediscovery Of – Ethics And Integrity – Will Play A Role Too – One Hopes – So Will – Memory

SAMUEL ARBESMAN ~ OVERCOMPLICATED ~ 2016

~ WTTE ~ Welcome To The Entanglement

~ E-AWBSTBMAMC-TIAGDBHWIOSTA-A-HTADA ~ Entanglement – As We Build Systems That Become More And More Complicated – There Is A Greater Divergence Between How We Intend Our Systems To Act – And – How They Actually Do Act

~ WCSAOIRTSTAA-OTHBDF-TCCBALITFOTU ~ While Complicated Systems Are Often Incredibly Robust To Shocks That Are Anticipated – Ones They Have Been Designed For – Their Complexity Can Be A Liability In The Face Of The Unanticipated

~ WATUACS-WMDTPR-OLOD-AWTLAI ~ When Attempting To Understand A Complex System – We Must Determine The Proper Resolution – Or Level Of Detail – At Which To Look At It

~ COUP ~ Complications Of Unknown Purpose

~ WWIRTATCOAOKTA ~ We Will Increasingly Require The Ability To Connect One Area Of Knowledge To Another

~ WHWT-WMHHWR-A-CWF ~ Walking Humbly With Technology – We Must Have Humility Without Reverence – And – Curiosity Without Fear

~ BATPUTHOTIJIOE;IHIUAUPTOT ~ Being Able To Peek Underneath The Hood Of Technology Isn’t Just Interesting Or Educational; It Helps Inoculate Us Against Unhealthy Perspective Toward Our Technologies

PAMELA SLIM ~ HOW DO YOU BUILD A BODY OF WORK? ~ BODY OF WORK ~ 2013

~ DYR:WIDYE?-WDYWTH? ~ Define Your Roots: Which Ideas Drive You Emotionally? – Whom Do You Want To Help?

~ NYI:S-S-I-E ~ Name Your Ingredients: Skills – Strengths – Ideas – Experiences

~ CYWM:E-E-F ~ Choose Your Work Mode: Employee – Entrepreneur – Freelancer

~ CAI:WDYWTBTLATSOYC? ~ Create And Innovate: What Do You Want To Bring To Life At This Stage Of Your Career?

~ STF:D-U-M-YFAA ~ Surf The Fear: Define – Understand – Manage – Your Fears And Anxieties

~ FYT:P-M-C ~ Form You Team: Peers – Mentors – Collaborators

~ DWSMTY:S-R-M-G ~ Define What Success Means To You: Specific – Relevant – Meaningful – Goals

~ SYS:TIATTCACS ~ Sell Your Story: Tie It All Together To Create A Compelling Story