RICHARD THALER + CASS SUNSTEIN ~ THE SLIPPERY SLOPE ~ NUDGE ~ 2008

~ S-MFT-OWA-MP-HII-WSF-T-O-M/C/B ~ Skeptics Might Fear That – Once We Accept – Modest Paternalism – Highly Intrusive Interventions – Will Surely Follow – To – Outright – Manipulation / Coercion / Bans

~ ROA-S-S-A-DTQOW-PHMIAOT-P-CTCTDRTTROOTFOAHSS-IOPAW-MPOT-A-DWITT-PSOTS ~ Reliance On A – Slippery-Slope – Argument – Ducks The Question Of Whether – Proposals Have Merit In And Of Themselves – Policies – Constructive To Criticize Them Directly Rather Than To Rely Only On The Fear Of A Hypothetical Slippery Slope – If Our Proposals Are Worthwhile – Make Progress On Those – And – Do Whatever It Takes To – Pour Sand On The Slope

~ LCOOR-RTSOTOSS-P-ED-T-RFOC-SLA-PI-CBEABTWSTAACOTO-TRDBAAM ~ Low Cost Opt-Out Rights – Reduces The Steepness Of The Ostensibly Slippery Slope – Proposals – Emphatically Designed – To – Retain Freedom Of Choice – So Long As – Paternalistic Interventions – Can Be Easily Avoided By Those Who Seek To Adopt A Course Of Their Own – The Risks Decried By Antipaternalists Are Modest

~ IMC-SKONII-A-CA-W-POP-MDS ~ In Many Cases – Some Kind Of Nudge Is Inevitable – And – Choice Architects – Whether – Private Or Public – Must Do Something

~ OLTUPTPDNA-B-PAP-I-NRTDHSSAH-WTRSI-IIBPFTOASSTTDNSTARAA-B-TRANT-A-STANSS ~ Often Life Turns Up Problems That People Did Not Anticipate – Both – Private And Public – Institutions – Need Rules To Determine How Such Situations Are Handled – When Those Rules Seem Invisible – It Is Because People Find Them Obvious And So Sensible That They Do Not See Them As Rules At All – But – The Rules Are Nonetheless There – And – Sometimes They Are Not So Sensible

~ TWMTA-SS-AI-TDTTSTB-CFNOFTS-TIAM ~ Those Who Make This Argument – Sometimes Speak – As If – The Default Terms That Set The Background – Come From Nature Or From The Sky – This Is A Mistake

RICHARD THALER + CASS SUNSTEIN ~ NUDGE ~ 2008

~ CA-TRFOTCIWPMD ~ Choice Architect – The Responsibility For Organizing The Context In Which People Make Decisions

~ TINSTAA’N’-D ~ There Is Not Such Thing As A – “Neutral” – Design

~ SAD-HSI ~ Seemingly Arbitrary Decisions – Have Subtle Influences

~ SAAID-CH-MIOPB-A-‘EM’ ~ Small And Apparently Insignificant Details – Can Have – Major Impacts On People’s Behavior – Assume – “Everything Matters”

~ TIT-‘EM’-CBB-PAE ~ The Insight That – “Everything Matters” – Can Be Both – Paralyzing And Empowering

~ LP-TPWTTITTHBCBD-T-LA-LITSIT-IG-PSBFTDWTL-A-TOOOUAITWTDS-T-PA-LITCTIILFCATTTIPBIOTMTL-L/H/B-AJBT ~ Libertarian Paternalism – The Problem With The Terms Is That They Have Been Captured By Dogmatists – The – Libertarian Aspect – Lies In The Straightforward Insistence That – In General – People Should Be Free To Do What They Like – And – To Opt Out Of Undesirable Arrangements If They Want To Do So – The – Paternalistic Aspect – Lies In The Claim That It Is Legitimate For Choice Architects To Try To Influence People’s Behavior In Order To Make Their Lives – Longer / Healthier / Better – As Judged By Themselves

~ IMC-IMPBD-DTWNHM-IT-HPFA-A-P-CI-UCA-A-CS-C ~ In Many Cases – Individuals Make Pretty Bad Decisions – Decisions They Would Not Have Made – If They – Had Paid Full Attention – And – Possessed – Complete Information – Unlimited Cognitive Abilities – And – Complete Self-Control

~ LP-IAR-W/S/N-TOP-B-CANB/FO/SB ~ Libertarian Paternalism – Is A Relatively – Weak / Soft / Nonintrusive – Type Of Paternalism – Because – Choices Are Not Blocked / Fenced Off / Significantly Burdened

~ A-N-IAAOT-CA-TAPBIAPWWFAOOSCTEI-TCAAM-N-TIMBEACTA-NANM ~ A – Nudge – Is Any Aspect Of The – Choice Architecture – That Alters People’s Behavior In A Predictable Way Without Forbidding Any Options Or Significantly Changing Their Economic Incentives – To Count As A Mere – Nudge – The Intervention Must Be Easy And Cheap To Avoid – Nudges Are Not Mandates

~ PTFAEL-CAAN-BJF-DN ~ Putting The Fruit At Eye Level – Counts As A Nudge – Banning Junk Food – Does Not

~ TE-SOC-RHRSQATROMJADTPM-HOS-CTHFAFAB-HDMINSGE ~ The Emerging – Science Of Choice – Research Has Raised Serous Questions About The Rationality Of Many Judgments And Decisions That People Make – Hundreds Of Studies – Confirm That Human Forecasts Are Flawed And Biased – Human Decision Making Is Not So Great Either

~ ‘SQB’-AFNF-I-FAHOR-PHASTTGAWTSQODO-RSTWTDCA-MPSWT-EWTSAMH ~ “Status Quo Bias” – A Fancy Name For – Inertia – For A Host Of Reasons – People Have A Strong Tendency To Go Along With The Status Quo Or Default Option – Research Shows That Whatever The Default Choices Are – Many People Stick With Them – Even When The Stakes Are Much Higher

~ NUTPOI-TPCBH-SDO-A-OSST-M-CS-CHHEOO ~ Never Underestimate The Power Of Inertia – That Power Can Be Harnessed – Setting Default Options – And – Other Similar Seemingly Trivial – Menu-Changing Strategies – Can Have Huge Effects On Outcomes

~ BPDB-IAN-ACIOATIPLAHSMOSMP-A-WCDSWSTOEFTC ~ By Properly Deploying Both – Incentives And Nudges – We Can Improve Our Ability To Improve People’s Lives And Help Solve Many Of Society’s Major Problems – And – We Can Do So While Still Insisting On Everyone’s Freedom To Choose

~ T-FA-ITAAPAAOTTMCTAITBIOATVLABTTCTWBMBSE-TAIF-I-OF ~ The – False Assumption – Is That Almost All People Almost All Of The Time Make Choices That Are In Their Best Interest Or At The Very Least Are Better Than The Choices That Would Be Made By Someone Else – This Assumption Is False – Indeed – Obviously False

~ HWPCIAEQ-OWAILTVAD-ISRTSTPMGCICIW-TH-E/GI/PF-TDLWICIWTA-I/PI/FISOI ~ How Well People Choose Is An Empirical Question – One Whose Answer Is Likely To Vary Across Domains – It Seems Reasonable To Say That People Make Good Choices In Contexts In Which – They Have – Experience / Good Information / Prompt Feedback – They Do Less Well In Contexts In Which They Are – Inexperienced / Poorly Informed / Feedback Is Slow Or Infrequent

~ B-ITCRU-TROIOECDAR-FTC-ITBSABCA ~ By – Insisting That Choices Remain Unrestricted – The Risks Of Inept Or Even Corrupt Designs Are Reduced – Freedom To Choose – Is The Best Safeguard Against Bad Choice Architecture

~ CACMJITTLOOBDU-FE ~ Choice Architects Can Make Major Improvements To The Lives Of Others By Designing User-Friendly Environments

~ I-IAN-R-RAB-GWBBSAMM-N-BG-J-BG-IS-LP-I-NLNR ~ If – Incentives And Nudges – Replace – Requirements And Bans – Government Will Be Both Smaller And More Modest – Not – Bigger Government – Just – Better Governance – In Short – Libertarian Paternalism – Is – Neither Left Nor Right

~ W-S-CPAMC-AC-TRIASOBO ~ When – Self-Control Problems And Mindless Choosing – Are Combined – The Result Is A Series Of Bad Outcomes

~ S-MSC-I-MAP-A-SWA-SSN-H-AEIBTSADOO ~ Sometimes – Massive Social Changes – In – Markets And Politics – Alike – Start With A – Small Social Nudge – Humans – Are Easily Influenced By The Statements And Deeds Of Others

~ HAENBOH-OR-WLTC ~ Humans Are Easily Nudged By Other Humans – One Reason – We Like To Conform

~ PBMLTCWTKTOPWSWTHTS-SPWGAWTGEWTT-O-K-TEEHB ~ People Become More Likely To Conform When They Know That Other People Will See What They Have To Say – Sometimes People Will Go Along With The Group Even When They Think – Or – Know – That Everyone Else Has Blundered

~ IMD-PATTT-ATF-TAOWEP-A-TTS-WI-BOTT-SI-AE-C-AAKS-CPLVITO ~ In Many Domains – People Are Tempted To Think – After The Fact – That An Outcome Was Entirely Predictable – And – That The Success – Was Inevitable – Beware Of That Temptation – Small Interventions – And Even – Coincidences – At A Key Stage – Can Produce Large Variations In The Outcome

~ T-SF-CHA-PE ~ The – Specific Framing – Can Have A – Powerful Effect

~ SI-CITEWWCICTM-S-TMHOAIOCWTAATCSA-T-‘P’-OISSATECBSP ~ Subtle Influences – Can Increase The Ease With Which Certain Information Comes To Mind – Sometimes – The Merest Hint Of An Idea Or Concept Will Trigger An Association That Can Stimulate Action – These – “Primes” – Occur In Social Situations And Their Effects Can Be Surprisingly Powerful

~ MPWTWOR-TLE-O-TPOLR-WONIIGFT ~ Many People Will Take Whatever Option Requires – The Least Effort – Or – The Path Of Least Resistance – Whether Or Not It Is Good For Them

~ HMM-A-W-DS-EIUTEAIAFAP ~ Humans Make Mistakes – A – Well-Designed System – Expects Its Users To Err And Is As Forgiving As Possible

~ GF-TBWTHHITPITPF-W-DS-TPWTADWAWTAMM ~ Give Feedback – The Best Way To Help Humans Improve Their Performance Is To Provide Feedback – Well-Designed Systems – Tell People When They Are Doing Well And When They Are Making Mistakes

~ AITOFIAWTTAGW-O-EMH-AATGW ~ An Important Type Of Feedback Is A Warning That Things Are Going Wrong – Or – Even More Helpful – Are About To Go Wrong

~ WS-HTATPO-OSMWTTAI ~ Warning Systems – Have To Avoid The Problem Of – Offering So Many Warnings That They Are Ignored

~ A-FQ-A-CA-WU?/WC?/WP?/WP? ~ Ask – Four Questions – About – Choice Architecture – Who Uses? / Who Chooses? / Who Pays? / Who Profits?

~ HA-LA-RS-T-HLATAMATLG ~ Humans Are – Loss Averse – Roughly Speaking – They – Hate Losses About Twice As Much As They Like Gains

~ ENABN-CAMHTOA-LUIWWC-A-E-MAT-WWC ~ Evil Nudgers And Bad Nudges – Choice Architects May Have Their Own Agendas – Line Up Incentives When We Can – And – Employ – Monitoring And Transparency – When We Can’t

~ PCA-PCA-WAB-V/MP-APGSBT-IT ~ Public Choice Architects – Private Choice Architects – Worry About Both – Voters / Maximizing Profits – A Primary Goal Should Be To – Increase Transparency

~ FPTC-INAW-A-RNINAP-DWTS-A-WTCANAS(MLAP)-I-T ~ Forcing People To Choose – Is Not Always Wise – And – Remaining Neutral Is Not Always Possible – Deciding Where To Stop – And – When To Call A Nudge A Shove (Much Less A Prison) – Is – Tricky

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ ANTI-CATASTROPHE PRINCIPLE – FOUR QUALIFICATIONS ~ LAWS OF FEAR ~ 2005

~ ATTFROSR-IMNSTTSTACITVSWCCROTO ~ Attentive To The Full Range Of Social Risks – It Makes No Sense To Take Steps To Avert Catastrophe If Those Very Steps Would Create Catastrophic Risks Of Their Own

~ ATTIO-C-E-WRRTCTLCMOATE ~ Attentive To The Idea Of – Cost-Effectiveness – Which Requires Regulators To Choose The Least Costly Means Of Achieving Their Ends

~ DCM-AIAWTREBOTLATBT ~ Distribution Considerations Matter – Applied In A Way That Reduces Extreme Burdens On Those Least Able To Bear Them

~ CMAS-TEOPCRBDFTE ~ Costs Matter As Such – The Extent Of Precautions Cannot Reasonably Be Divorced From Their Expense

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ LIBERTARIAN PATERNALISM ~ LAWS OF FEAR ~ 2005

~ T-LA-OTSLITSIT-IG-PSBFTOOOSAITCTDS ~ The – Libertarian Aspect – Lies In The Straightforward Insistence That – In General – People Should Be Free To Opt Out Of Specified Arrangements If Hey Choose To Do So

~ T-PA-CITCTIILFPAPITATIPB-EWT-PEAA-ITU-APTCA-‘P’-IIATITCOAPIAWTWMCBO-ISCIMIDITOTOW-DTTWCITH-CI-UCA-A-NLOS-C-H-LP-PTBRTBEAIF ~ The – Paternalistic Aspect – Consists In The Claim That It Is Legitimate For Private And Public Institutions To Attempt To Influence People’s Behavior – Even When Third-Party Effects Are Absent – In This Understanding – A Policy Therefore Counts As – “Paternalistic” – If It Attempts To Influence The Choices Of Affected Parties In A Way That Will Make Choosers Better Off – In Some Cases Individuals Make Inferior Decisions In Terms Of Their Own Welfare – Decisions That They Would Change If They Had – Complete Information – Unlimited Cognitive Abilities – And – No Lack Of Self-Control – Hence – Libertarian Paternalism – Promises To Be Responsive To Both Excessive And Insufficient Fear

~ LP-IAR-WAN-TOP-B-CANBOFO-IIMCF-LP-I-TC-OTWSTDFT-PPO ~ Libertarian Paternalism – Is A Relatively – Weak And Nonintrusive – Type Of Paternalism – Because – Choices Are Not Blocked Or Fenced Off – In Its Most Cautious Forms – Libertarian Paternalism – Imposes – Trivial Costs – On Those Who Seek To Depart From The – Planner’s Preferred Option

~ WAOOT-PTFASBTD-AA-ESC-ITRWT-ITCROATC? ~ Would Any One Object To – Putting The Fruit And Salad Before The Desserts – At An – Elementary School Cafeteria – If The Result Were To – Increase The Consumption Ratio Of Apples To Candy?

~ TPTICSBR-IOBOTCT-PDAEJOMCO-AL-TTDAFBJTTPCPD-B-TILESFTC ~ The Presumption That Individual Choices Should Be Respected – Is Often Based On The Claim That – People Do An Excellent Job Of Making Choices – Or – At Least – That They Do A Far Better Job Than Third Parties Could Possibly Do – But – There Is Little Empirical Support For This Claim

~ DR-OSK-A-I-A-MOTTTRWA-PAC-POL-W-FP-A-SP-HICF-BAC ~ Default Rules – Of Some Kind – Are – Inevitable – And – Much Of The Time Those Rules Will Affect – Preferences And Choices – People Often Lack – Well-Formed Preferences – And – Starting Points – Have Important Consequences For – Behavior And Choice

~ I-FP ~ Ill-Formed Preferences

~ I-US-W-FP-AEUTE ~ In – Unfamiliar Situations – Well-Formed Preferences – Are Especially Unlikely To Exist

~ TIOP-TINWTAEOBAC-TTFTCLI-ITMOSE-T-P-FOC-T-PCEAT-PSO ~ The Inevitability Of Paternalism – There Is Not Way To Avoid Effects On Behavior And Choices – The Task For The Committed Libertarian Is – In The Midst Of Such Effects – To – Preserve – Freedom Of Choice – That – People Can Easily Avoid The – Paternalist’s Suggested Option

~ SLA-PI-CBEABTWSTAACOTO-TDEBAAM ~ So Long As – Paternalistic Interventions – Can Be Easily Avoided By Those Who Seek To Adopt A Course Of Their Own – The Dangers Emphasized By Antipaternalist Are Minimal

~ TWMT-SS-A-A-ATEOAS-CP-ALFP-B-IP-SF-S-CP-TIIHLTOPDT ~ Those Who Make The – Slippery Slope – Argument – Are – Acknowledging The Existence Of A Self-Control Problem – At Least For Planners – But – If Planners – Suffer From Self-Control Problems – Then It Is Highly Likely That Other People Do Too

~ TG-SBT-A-R-I-A-O-H-E-A-TPASTILT-PPW-SD ~ The Goal – Should Be To – Avoid – Random – Inadvertent – Arbitrary – Or – Harmful – Effects – And – To Produce A Situation That Is Likely To – Promote People’s Welfare – Suitably Defined

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ INFOTOPIA ~ 2006

~ BTRATPCFTFT-WTI-IIETOTVAETCO-H-T-ACE-M-O-P ~ Both The Risk And The Promise Come From The Fact That – With The Internet – It Is Easy To Obtain The Views And Even The Collaboration Of – Hundreds – Thousands – And Conceivably Even – Millions – Of – People

~ E-L-MPCADSTIECOTOD-LTWE-UC-A-UE-B-ED-TI-AOEVEIIA-APLAGDFTDBOITOPH ~ Everyday – Like-Minded People Can And Do Sort Themselves Into Echo Chambers Of Their Own Design – Leading To Wild Errors – Undue Confidence – And – Unjustified Extremism – But – Every Day – The Internet – Also Offers Exceedingly Valuable Exercises In Information Aggregation – As People Learn A Great Deal From The Dispersed Bits Of Information That Other People Have

~ IC-CUIWWHOWWCAOWCAPU ~ Information Cocoons – Communications Universes In Which We Hear Only What We Choose And Only What Comforts And Pleases Us

~ ICBCFLAOTLI-IC-W-F-P-WESOV-B-MEATPOOC-FPAPI-CCTITN ~ It Can Be Comforting For Leaders And Others To Live In – Information Cocoons – Warm – Friendly – Places – Where Everyone Shares Our Views – But – Major Errors Are The Price Of Our Comfort – For Private And Public Institutions – Cocoons Can Turn Into Terrible Nightmares

~ DDALTBD?-OIDN-GMMIPOOA-LTEOTACOFRTT-‘G’-MWPUUADS-C-TFTCIAETROA ~ Does Deliberation Actually Lead To Better Decisions? – Often It Does Not – Group Members May Impose Pressures On One Another – Leading To Extremism Or To A Consensus On Falsehood Rather Than Truth – “Groupthink” – May Well Promote Unthinking Uniformity And Dangerous Self-Censorships – Thus Failing To Combine Information And Enlarge The Range Of Arguments

~ CGDBNISODBBOI-TPITDGODNOTKTTMAH ~ Countless Groups Do Badly Not In Spite Of Deliberation But Because Of It – The Problem Is That Deliberating Groups Often Do Not Obtain The Knowledge That Their Members Actually Have

~ TGLIT-PL-EATHL-OLIC-A-DPFLHTIS ~ The General Lesson Is That – Political Leaders – Even At The Highest Levels – Often Live In Cocoons – And – Deliberation Provides Far Less Help Than It Should

~ GOFPTASOP-TDNCBIAIE-TEIHBAOMATEOIHBAFOO-TFVTBOCE-I-DOFTAAGM ~ Groups Often Fall Prey To A Series Of Problems – They Do Not Correct But Instead Amplify Individual Errors – They Emphasize Information Held By All Or Most At The Expense Of Information Held By A Few Or One – They Fall Victim To Bandwagon Or Cascade Effects – Indeed – Deliberation Often Fails To Aggregate Among Group Members

~ AIH-TPPB-IPASI-AIAD-TIOMFJAMAP-NMJAF ~ As It Happens – The Problems Posed By – Informational Pressure And Social Influences – Apply In All Domains – They Infect Our Most Fundamental Judgments About Morality And Policy – Not Merely Judgments About Facts

~ TKP-IS-GWDBTI-A-BGBTLO-SLATCAM:MRIU-A-EPIMLTNTBC ~ The Key Point – Is That – Groups Will Do Better Than Individuals – And – Big Groups Better Than Little Ones – So Long As Two Conditions Are Met: Majority Rule Is Used – And – Each Person Is More Likely Than Not To Be Correct

~ FAOCW ~ Falsehoods Are Often Conventional Wisdom

~ ASBIOOADWCSPFTGA ~ A Systematic Bias In One Or Another Direction Will Create Serious Problems For The Group’s Answers

~ GMTTBALMCATJASWOA-AKEOGIIAGST-TPCIC-WONIAI ~ Group Members Tend To Become A Lot More Confident About Their Judgments After Speaking With One Another – A Key Effect Of Group Interaction Is A Greater Sense That – The Postdeliberation Conclusion Is Correct – Whether Or Not It Actually Is

~ MOTT-DGDQPAATITTMH-WMMGT-TOFTLNAMATM-RKIOIOD-AABIKIABAOMGMHAFGRTITIKBOOOAFGM ~ Much Of The Time – Deliberating Groups Do Quite Poorly At Aggregating The Information That Their Members Have – When Many Minds Get Together – They Often Fail To Learn Nearly As Much As They Might – Relevant Knowledge Is Often Ignored Or Downplayed – Above All Because Information Known In Advance By All Or Most Group Members Has A Far Greater Role Than Information That Is Known By Only One Of A Few Group Members

~ WSGDW-IIBPSWTT-B-WDG-TMNH-ETTVOOMLPTST-MPRDLBTSD-TDNWTLSORCT ~ When Statistical Groups Do Well – It Is Because People Say What They Think – But – With Deliberating Groups – This Might Not Happen – Exposure To The Views Of Others Might Lead People To Silence Themselves – Most People Really Don’t Like Being The Sole Dissenter – They Do Not Want To Look Stupid Or To Create Trouble

~ HP-TAUTGCOBDN-ACFOIA-A-TAATC ~ Hidden Profiles – The Accurate Understandings That Groups Could Obtain But Do Not – A Clear Failure Of Information Aggregation – And – They Are All Too Common

~ CKE-IHBAGMHFMIOGJTIHBOAFM ~ Common Knowledge Effect – Information Held By All Group Members Has Far More Influence On Group Judgments Than Information Held By Only A Few Members

~ GMTTBSMCATJAD-AEAF-B-CAEAABC ~ Group Members Tend To Be Significantly More Confident About Their Judgments After Discussion – An Especially Alarming Finding – Because – Confidence And Error Are A Bad Combination

~ TITGWAIOATTBLOTHAPLTETPHIADP-CPMHLIOTG ~ Those In The Group Who Are Inexperienced Or Are Thought To Be Low On The Hierarchy Are Particularly Loath To Emphasize Their Privately Held Information As Discussion Proceeds – Cognitively Peripheral Members Have Little Influence On The Group

~ IMDG-PWEUHITAOSR-ATKI ~ In Many Deliberating Groups – People Who Emphasize Uniquely Held Information Take An Obvious Social Risk – And They Know It

~ TDM-APCU-IWYCOTTAOTYL-PIATMP-IOGIA-BPITO ~ The Daily Me – A Personalized Communications Universe – In Which You Consult Only Those Topics And Opinions That You Like – Polarization Is All The More Probable – Instead Of Good Information Aggregation – Bad Polarization Is The Outcome

~ TFT-DIBCAU-WL-TSBPMI-TDHPSRTN ~ The Fact That – Deliberation Increase Both Confidence And Uniformity – Will Leave – The Strong But Potentially Misleading Impression – That Deliberation Has Produced Sense Rather Than Nonsense

~ MHTOFAF-A-PCBWO-B-AMCSIFROWIPAH-APMRHIADG-B-IAM-TWHI-UH-AIAPTMALOM-A-TALTETO ~ Markets Have Their Own Fads And Fashions – And – Prices Can Be Way Off – But – A Market Creates Strong Incentives For Revelation Of Whatever Information People Actually Hold – A Profile May Remain Hidden In A Deliberating Group – But – In A Market – Those With Hidden Information – Uniquely Held – Are In A Position To Make A Lot Of Money – And – They Are Likely To Exploit The Opportunity

~ TPA-O-TCPOEIORC-IOUPDBEGAF-IMC-TLNBTAE-BB-IPAATC-ABO-TSBOTTABS ~ Traditional Practices Are – Often – The Congealed Product Of Earlier Information Or Reputational Cascades – Inefficient Or Unjust Practices Defended By Entrenched Groups And Factions – In Many Cases – Traditions Last Not Because They Are Excellent – But Because – Influential People Are Averse To Change – And Because Of – The Sheer Burdens Of Transition To A Better State

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ GOING TO EXTREMES ~ 2009

~ WPFTIGOL-MT-TAELTMT-E-TITPKA-GP ~ When People Find Themselves In Groups Of Like-Minded Types – They Are Especially Likely To Move To – Extremes – This Is The Phenomenon Known As – Group Polarization

~ ITBL-GP-HBSIARWROC ~ In The Behavioural Laboratory – Group Polarization – Has Been Shown In A Remarkably Wide Range Of Contexts

~ SNCOAPMBTHTCATAPAV ~ Social Networks Can Operate As Polarization Machines Because They Help To Confirm And Thus Amplify People’s Antecedent Views

~ MOTT-PDNSTHALAASO-TPASOTGIWTFT ~ Much Of The Time – People Do Not Seem To Have Anything Like An Adequate Sense Of – The Partiality And Skew Of The Groups In Which They Find Themselves

~ OPIG-PSASSTGG ~ Once Placed In Groups – People Show A Significant Shift Toward Greater Generosity

~ POIPCE ~ People Often Ignore Powerful Contrary Evidence

~ CB-TIIMIPFPTDAKO-DM-OTTAOTTL-MALVOTOV ~ Cyberbalkanization – The Internet Is Making It Possible For People To Design A Kind Of – Daily Me – Only The Topics And Opinions That They Like – More And Louder Versions Of Their Own Views

~ FMOWTBTK-HB-LPODI-TMROWOPT ~ For Most Of What They Believe They Know – Human Beings – Lack Personal Or Direct Information – They Must Rely On What Other People Think

~ PAMTAATFTWPC ~ People Are Motivate To Accept Accounts That Fit With Their Preexisting Convictions

CASS SUNSTEIN + REID HASTIE ~ WISER ~ 2015

~ GBGT ~ Getting Beyond GroupThink

~ HMHABTO? ~ How Many Heads Are Better Than One?

~ GT ~ GroupThink

~ HT ~ Happy Talk

~ DURV ~ Deliberation Usually Reduces Variance

~ GDROTFPR-NOSI ~ Good Decisions Rely On The Full Performance Record – Not On Snapshot Impressions

~ EB ~ Egocentric Bias

~ HBAPTUO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Unrealistic Optimism

~ HBAPTO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Overconfidence

~ ECATF-BTOWTALKBTTWTDNAK ~ Earn Credibility And Trust First – By Telling Others What They Already Know Before Telling Them What They Do Not Already Know

~ TTFOIATDHBM ~ The Time For Optimism Is After The Decision Has Been Made

~ P ~ Priming

~ GTPTC-ATDNAGA ~ Good Team Players Think Critically – And They Do Not Always Get Along

~ IPARWTGIR-TAFMLTRWTAK ~ If People Are Rewarded When Their Group Is Right – They Are Far More Likely To Reveal What They Actually Know

~ IGMFOTOPPRTTOTG-TGIMLTE ~ If Group Members Focus On Their Own Personal Prospect Rather Than Those Of The Group – The Group Is More Likely To Err

~ MEDFTGDVCEGP-BTIADBADAAFRODA-ASRIA ~ Many Experiments Do Find That Genuine Dissenting Views Can Enhance Group Performance – But There Is A Difference Between Authentic Dissent And A Formal Requirement Of Devil’s Advocacy – Any Such Requirement Is Artificial

~ CT ~ Contrarian Teams

~ CJT ~ Condorcet Jury Theorem

~ TIAGRTTT-IBBAP-OBIAPP ~ There Is Good Reason To Think That – In Both Business And Politics – Optimistic Bias Is A Pervasive Problem

~ E-BATMWBOTF ~ Expertise – Being Able To Make Winning Bets On The Future

~ IMP-TAPACS-RTMAP-ITPEROTASTLE ~ In Most Professions – Telling A Pleasing And Convincing Story – Rather Than Making Accurate Predictions – Is The Primary Evidence Relied On To Assign Someone The Label Expert

~ TTS-TBR-KAWVCTU-CBMM-ATPFOE ~ Three Thinking Skills – Theory-Based Reasoning – Knowledge About Which Valid Cues To Use – Case-Based Memory-Matching – Are The Primary Forms Of Expertise

~ ARCTPTFW-BTMA-IVR ~ A Reliable Capacity To Predict The Future With – Better-Than-Modest Accuracy – Is Very Rare

~ SHSFOEDE ~ Some Highly Specific Forms Of Expertise Do Exist

~ REWACDBTSAOA ~ Real Experts Will Almost Certainly Do Better Than Statistical Averages Of Amateurs

~ CTEIATI ~ Chasing The Expert Is A Terrible Idea

~ EIAMBGTAISP ~ Evidence Is A Much Better Guide Than An Impressive Self-Presentation

~ IOMSTGOYOI ~ It Often Makes Sense To Go Outside Your Own Institution

~ IYATWW-YMBSAEBWYL ~ If You Ask The Whole World – You Might Be Surprised And Excited By What You Learn

~ WEHCPAABSAT ~ We Exaggerate How Consistent People Are Across Both Situations And Time

~ MOUAALLC-IHWBIDS-TWTWA ~ Most Of Us Are A Lot Less Consistent – In How We Behave In Different Situations – Than We Think We Are

~ FAE ~ Fundamental Attribution Error

~ RTMITET ~ Reading The Mind In The Eyes Test

~ WIMTBATP-NTAWTMCV-BTAVI ~ What It Means To Be A Team Player – Not To Agree With The Majority’s Current View – But To Add Valuable Information

~ LCACTDNP-AER-TEODV ~ Leaders Create A Culture That Does Not Punish – And Even Rewards – The Expression Of Dissident Views

~ WAFIS-GCGALW ~ With A Few Identifiable Steps – Groups Can Get A Lot Wiser