CASS SUNSTEIN ~ INFOTOPIA ~ 2006

~ BTRATPCFTFT-WTI-IIETOTVAETCO-H-T-ACE-M-O-P ~ Both The Risk And The Promise Come From The Fact That – With The Internet – It Is Easy To Obtain The Views And Even The Collaboration Of – Hundreds – Thousands – And Conceivably Even – Millions – Of – People

~ E-L-MPCADSTIECOTOD-LTWE-UC-A-UE-B-ED-TI-AOEVEIIA-APLAGDFTDBOITOPH ~ Everyday – Like-Minded People Can And Do Sort Themselves Into Echo Chambers Of Their Own Design – Leading To Wild Errors – Undue Confidence – And – Unjustified Extremism – But – Every Day – The Internet – Also Offers Exceedingly Valuable Exercises In Information Aggregation – As People Learn A Great Deal From The Dispersed Bits Of Information That Other People Have

~ IC-CUIWWHOWWCAOWCAPU ~ Information Cocoons – Communications Universes In Which We Hear Only What We Choose And Only What Comforts And Pleases Us

~ ICBCFLAOTLI-IC-W-F-P-WESOV-B-MEATPOOC-FPAPI-CCTITN ~ It Can Be Comforting For Leaders And Others To Live In – Information Cocoons – Warm – Friendly – Places – Where Everyone Shares Our Views – But – Major Errors Are The Price Of Our Comfort – For Private And Public Institutions – Cocoons Can Turn Into Terrible Nightmares

~ DDALTBD?-OIDN-GMMIPOOA-LTEOTACOFRTT-‘G’-MWPUUADS-C-TFTCIAETROA ~ Does Deliberation Actually Lead To Better Decisions? – Often It Does Not – Group Members May Impose Pressures On One Another – Leading To Extremism Or To A Consensus On Falsehood Rather Than Truth – “Groupthink” – May Well Promote Unthinking Uniformity And Dangerous Self-Censorships – Thus Failing To Combine Information And Enlarge The Range Of Arguments

~ CGDBNISODBBOI-TPITDGODNOTKTTMAH ~ Countless Groups Do Badly Not In Spite Of Deliberation But Because Of It – The Problem Is That Deliberating Groups Often Do Not Obtain The Knowledge That Their Members Actually Have

~ TGLIT-PL-EATHL-OLIC-A-DPFLHTIS ~ The General Lesson Is That – Political Leaders – Even At The Highest Levels – Often Live In Cocoons – And – Deliberation Provides Far Less Help Than It Should

~ GOFPTASOP-TDNCBIAIE-TEIHBAOMATEOIHBAFOO-TFVTBOCE-I-DOFTAAGM ~ Groups Often Fall Prey To A Series Of Problems – They Do Not Correct But Instead Amplify Individual Errors – They Emphasize Information Held By All Or Most At The Expense Of Information Held By A Few Or One – They Fall Victim To Bandwagon Or Cascade Effects – Indeed – Deliberation Often Fails To Aggregate Among Group Members

~ AIH-TPPB-IPASI-AIAD-TIOMFJAMAP-NMJAF ~ As It Happens – The Problems Posed By – Informational Pressure And Social Influences – Apply In All Domains – They Infect Our Most Fundamental Judgments About Morality And Policy – Not Merely Judgments About Facts

~ TKP-IS-GWDBTI-A-BGBTLO-SLATCAM:MRIU-A-EPIMLTNTBC ~ The Key Point – Is That – Groups Will Do Better Than Individuals – And – Big Groups Better Than Little Ones – So Long As Two Conditions Are Met: Majority Rule Is Used – And – Each Person Is More Likely Than Not To Be Correct

~ FAOCW ~ Falsehoods Are Often Conventional Wisdom

~ ASBIOOADWCSPFTGA ~ A Systematic Bias In One Or Another Direction Will Create Serious Problems For The Group’s Answers

~ GMTTBALMCATJASWOA-AKEOGIIAGST-TPCIC-WONIAI ~ Group Members Tend To Become A Lot More Confident About Their Judgments After Speaking With One Another – A Key Effect Of Group Interaction Is A Greater Sense That – The Postdeliberation Conclusion Is Correct – Whether Or Not It Actually Is

~ MOTT-DGDQPAATITTMH-WMMGT-TOFTLNAMATM-RKIOIOD-AABIKIABAOMGMHAFGRTITIKBOOOAFGM ~ Much Of The Time – Deliberating Groups Do Quite Poorly At Aggregating The Information That Their Members Have – When Many Minds Get Together – They Often Fail To Learn Nearly As Much As They Might – Relevant Knowledge Is Often Ignored Or Downplayed – Above All Because Information Known In Advance By All Or Most Group Members Has A Far Greater Role Than Information That Is Known By Only One Of A Few Group Members

~ WSGDW-IIBPSWTT-B-WDG-TMNH-ETTVOOMLPTST-MPRDLBTSD-TDNWTLSORCT ~ When Statistical Groups Do Well – It Is Because People Say What They Think – But – With Deliberating Groups – This Might Not Happen – Exposure To The Views Of Others Might Lead People To Silence Themselves – Most People Really Don’t Like Being The Sole Dissenter – They Do Not Want To Look Stupid Or To Create Trouble

~ HP-TAUTGCOBDN-ACFOIA-A-TAATC ~ Hidden Profiles – The Accurate Understandings That Groups Could Obtain But Do Not – A Clear Failure Of Information Aggregation – And – They Are All Too Common

~ CKE-IHBAGMHFMIOGJTIHBOAFM ~ Common Knowledge Effect – Information Held By All Group Members Has Far More Influence On Group Judgments Than Information Held By Only A Few Members

~ GMTTBSMCATJAD-AEAF-B-CAEAABC ~ Group Members Tend To Be Significantly More Confident About Their Judgments After Discussion – An Especially Alarming Finding – Because – Confidence And Error Are A Bad Combination

~ TITGWAIOATTBLOTHAPLTETPHIADP-CPMHLIOTG ~ Those In The Group Who Are Inexperienced Or Are Thought To Be Low On The Hierarchy Are Particularly Loath To Emphasize Their Privately Held Information As Discussion Proceeds – Cognitively Peripheral Members Have Little Influence On The Group

~ IMDG-PWEUHITAOSR-ATKI ~ In Many Deliberating Groups – People Who Emphasize Uniquely Held Information Take An Obvious Social Risk – And They Know It

~ TDM-APCU-IWYCOTTAOTYL-PIATMP-IOGIA-BPITO ~ The Daily Me – A Personalized Communications Universe – In Which You Consult Only Those Topics And Opinions That You Like – Polarization Is All The More Probable – Instead Of Good Information Aggregation – Bad Polarization Is The Outcome

~ TFT-DIBCAU-WL-TSBPMI-TDHPSRTN ~ The Fact That – Deliberation Increase Both Confidence And Uniformity – Will Leave – The Strong But Potentially Misleading Impression – That Deliberation Has Produced Sense Rather Than Nonsense

~ MHTOFAF-A-PCBWO-B-AMCSIFROWIPAH-APMRHIADG-B-IAM-TWHI-UH-AIAPTMALOM-A-TALTETO ~ Markets Have Their Own Fads And Fashions – And – Prices Can Be Way Off – But – A Market Creates Strong Incentives For Revelation Of Whatever Information People Actually Hold – A Profile May Remain Hidden In A Deliberating Group – But – In A Market – Those With Hidden Information – Uniquely Held – Are In A Position To Make A Lot Of Money – And – They Are Likely To Exploit The Opportunity

~ TPA-O-TCPOEIORC-IOUPDBEGAF-IMC-TLNBTAE-BB-IPAATC-ABO-TSBOTTABS ~ Traditional Practices Are – Often – The Congealed Product Of Earlier Information Or Reputational Cascades – Inefficient Or Unjust Practices Defended By Entrenched Groups And Factions – In Many Cases – Traditions Last Not Because They Are Excellent – But Because – Influential People Are Averse To Change – And Because Of – The Sheer Burdens Of Transition To A Better State

CASS SUNSTEIN ~ GOING TO EXTREMES ~ 2009

~ WPFTIGOL-MT-TAELTMT-E-TITPKA-GP ~ When People Find Themselves In Groups Of Like-Minded Types – They Are Especially Likely To Move To – Extremes – This Is The Phenomenon Known As – Group Polarization

~ ITBL-GP-HBSIARWROC ~ In The Behavioural Laboratory – Group Polarization – Has Been Shown In A Remarkably Wide Range Of Contexts

~ SNCOAPMBTHTCATAPAV ~ Social Networks Can Operate As Polarization Machines Because They Help To Confirm And Thus Amplify People’s Antecedent Views

~ MOTT-PDNSTHALAASO-TPASOTGIWTFT ~ Much Of The Time – People Do Not Seem To Have Anything Like An Adequate Sense Of – The Partiality And Skew Of The Groups In Which They Find Themselves

~ OPIG-PSASSTGG ~ Once Placed In Groups – People Show A Significant Shift Toward Greater Generosity

~ POIPCE ~ People Often Ignore Powerful Contrary Evidence

~ CB-TIIMIPFPTDAKO-DM-OTTAOTTL-MALVOTOV ~ Cyberbalkanization – The Internet Is Making It Possible For People To Design A Kind Of – Daily Me – Only The Topics And Opinions That They Like – More And Louder Versions Of Their Own Views

~ FMOWTBTK-HB-LPODI-TMROWOPT ~ For Most Of What They Believe They Know – Human Beings – Lack Personal Or Direct Information – They Must Rely On What Other People Think

~ PAMTAATFTWPC ~ People Are Motivate To Accept Accounts That Fit With Their Preexisting Convictions

CASS SUNSTEIN + REID HASTIE ~ WISER

~ GBGT ~ Getting Beyond GroupThink

~ HMHABTO? ~ How Many Heads Are Better Than One?

~ GT ~ GroupThink

~ HT ~ Happy Talk

~ DURV ~ Deliberation Usually Reduces Variance

~ GDROTFPR-NOSI ~ Good Decisions Rely On The Full Performance Record – Not On Snapshot Impressions

~ EB ~ Egocentric Bias

~ HBAPTUO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Unrealistic Optimism

~ HBAPTO ~ Human Beings Are Prone To Overconfidence

~ ECATF-BTOWTALKBTTWTDNAK ~ Earn Credibility And Trust First – By Telling Others What They Already Know Before Telling Them What They Do Not Already Know”

~ TTFOIATDHBM ~ The Time For Optimism Is After The Decision Has Been Made

~ P ~ Priming

~ GTPTC-ATDNAGA ~ Good Team Players Think Critically – And They Do Not Always Get Along

~ IPARWTGIR-TAFMLTRWTAK ~ If People Are Rewarded When Their Group Is Right – They Are Far More Likely To Reveal What They Actually Know

~ IGMFOTOPPRTTOTG-TGIMLTE ~ If Group Members Focus On Their Own Personal Prospect Rather Than Those Of The Group – The Group Is More Likely To Err

~ MEDFTGDVCEGP-BTIADBADAAFRODA-ASRIA ~ Many Experiments Do Find That Genuine Dissenting Views Can Enhance Group Performance – But There Is A Difference Between Authentic Dissent And A Formal Requirement Of Devil’s Advocacy – Any Such Requirement Is Artificial

~ CT ~ Contrarian Teams

~ CJT ~ Condorcet Jury Theorem

~ TIAGRTTT-IBBAP-OBIAPP ~ There Is Good Reason To Think That – In Both Business And Politics – Optimistic Bias Is A Pervasive Problem

~ E-BATMWBOTF ~ Expertise – Being Able To Make Winning Bets On The Future

~ IMP-TAPACS-RTMAP-ITPEROTASTLE ~ In Most Professions – Telling A Pleasing And Convincing Story – Rather Than Making Accurate Predictions – Is The Primary Evidence Relied On To Assign Someone The Label Expert

~ TTS-TBR-KAWVCTU-CBMM-ATPFOE ~ Three Thinking Skills – Theory-Based Reasoning – Knowledge About Which Valid Cues To Use – Case-Based Memory-Matching – Are The Primary Forms Of Expertise

~ ARCTPTFW-BTMA-IVR ~ A Reliable Capacity To Predict The Future With – Better-Than-Modest Accuracy – Is Very Rare

~ SHSFOEDE ~ Some Highly Specific Forms Of Expertise Do Exist

~ REWACDBTSAOA ~ Real Experts Will Almost Certainly Do Better Than Statistical Averages Of Amateurs

~ CTEIATI ~ Chasing The Expert Is A Terrible Idea

~ EIAMBGTAISP ~ Evidence Is A Much Better Guide Than An Impressive Self-Presentation

~ IOMSTGOYOI ~ It Often Makes Sense To Go Outside Your Own Institution

~ IYATWW-YMBSAEBWYL ~ If You Ask The Whole World – You Might Be Surprised And Excited By What You Learn

~ WEHCPAABSAT ~ We Exaggerate How Consistent People Are Across Both Situations And Time

~ MOUAALLC-IHWBIDS-TWTWA ~ Most Of Us Are A Lot Less Consistent – In How We Behave In Different Situations – Than We Think We Are

~ FAE ~ Fundamental Attribution Error

~ RTMITET ~ Reading The Mind In The Eyes Test

~ WIMTBATP-NTAWTMCV-BTAVI ~ What It Means To Be A Team Player – Not To Agree With The Majority’s Current View – But To Add Valuable Information

~ LCACTDNP-AER-TEODV ~ Leaders Create A Culture That Does Not Punish – And Even Rewards – The Expression Of Dissident Views

~ WAFIS-GCGALW ~ With A Few Identifiable Steps – Groups Can Get A Lot Wiser