~ ODTRITFWAEOG ~ Our Desire To Reach Into The Future Will Always Exceed Our Grasp

~ OS ~ Optimistic Skeptic

~ SDTTI-OM-C-C-A-AA-SC-IADF ~ Superforecasting – Demands Thinking That Is – Open-Minded – Careful – Curious – And – Above All – Self-Critical – It Also Demands Focus

~ WWNTBCBFASJITF-SITWGSAB ~ We Will Need To Blend Computer-Based Forecasting And Subjective Judgment In The Future – So It’s Time We Got Serious About Both

~ CCS ~ Cargo Cult Science

~ WYSIATI ~ What You See Is All There Is

~ TKID-DTCBR(ANRTZ)-BBEFBS-SSCRATGOHN ~ The Key Is Doubt – Doubt That Can Be Reduced (Although Never To Zero) – By Better Evidence From Better Studies – Such Scientific Caution Runs Against The Grain Of Human Nature

~ ONIITGOTTFPEAHGSEWCIR ~ Our Natural Inclination Is To Grab On To The First Plausible Explanation And Happily Gather Supportive Evidence Without Checking Its Reliability

~ PR-WTOE-PCEPDITMIVNAID-ISDFAP-ACESII ~ Pattern Recognition – With Training Or Experience – People Can Encode Patterns Deep In Their Memories In Vast Number And Intricate Detail – If Something Doesn’t Fit A Pattern – A Competent Expert Senses It Immediately

~ EPJ ~ Expert Political Judgement

~ HWAWDOWYAA-ATJOMPWKNPALON ~ How Well Aggregation Works Depends On What You Are Aggregating – Aggregating The Judgments Of Many People Who Know Nothing Produces A Lot Of Nothing

~ SOOARGADVORIAS ~ Stepping Outside Ourselves And Really Getting A Different View Of Reality Is A Struggle

~ MTILISAL-IVP-TCMIHTFOWTCUTSAWTL ~ Most Things In Life Involve Skill And Luck – In Varying Proportions – That Complexity Makes It Hard To Figure Out What To Chalk Up To Skill And What To Luck

~ MIABHN ~ Meaning Is A Basic Human Need

~ BP-PCBAI-ACORLCTAANITUTSB ~ Belief Perseverance – People Can Be Astonishingly Intransigent – And Capable Of Rationalizing Like Crazy To Avoid Acknowledging New Information That Upsets Their Settled Beliefs

~ SNOUMOTOF-TUISI ~ Superforecasters Not Only Update More Often Than Other Forecasters – They Update In Smaller Increments

~ BTINMF-JBPWLOC ~ But There Is No Magical Formula – Just Broad Principles With Lots Of Caveats

~ BNAPIS-INTBIP-YNTKWMTLOF-AWBPRAB ~ But Not All Practice Improves Skill – It Needs To Be Informed Practice – You Need To Know Which Mistakes To Look Out For – And Which Best Practices Really Are Best

~ TSANUSOTTITTDEETS ~ The Successful Are Not Usually So Open To The Idea That They Didn’t Entirely Earn Their Success

~ ‘PB’ ~ “Perpetual Beta”

~ SCLTATCUTHOMTPTS-SHOAHAI ~ Success Can Lead To Acclaim That Can Undermine The Habits Of Mind That Produced The Success – Such Hubris Often Afflicts Highly Accomplished Individuals

~ TAODPIAPWTIJ-BTKWID-CUPOPMOTS-IITDOTPTMTMW ~ The Aggregation Of Different Perspectives Is A Potent Way To Improve Judgment – But The Key Word Is Different – Combining Uniform Perspectives Only Produces More Of The Same – It Is The Diversity Of The Perspectives That Makes The Magic Work

~ THRFGJINSD-IIIH-IIARTRIPC-TSTCIACS-WICBDAA-ATHJMTBRWM ~ The Humility Required For Good Judgment Is Not Self-Doubt – It Is Intellectual Humility – It Is A Recognition That Reality Is Profoundly Complex – That Seeing Things Clearly Is A Constant Struggle – When It Can Be Done At All – And That Human Judgment Must Therefore Be Riddled With Mistakes

~ BTCSSIE-ATFOKIS ~ But The Continuous Self-Scrutiny Is Exhausting – And The Feeling Of Knowing Is Seductive

~ KWWDKIBTTWKWWD ~ Knowing What We Don’t Know Is Better Than Thinking We Know What We Don’t

~ OEOTFADFOMMOHTWW-AEEIAOTLAITM ~ Our Expectations Of The Future Are Derived From Our Mental Models Of How The World Works – And Every Event Is An Opportunity To Learn And Improve Those Models

~ VEAIFANH-FTCNBPW ~ Vague Expectations About Indefinite Futures Are Not Helpful – Fuzzy Thinking Can Never Be Proven Wrong

~ AWHTDIGSAKS ~ All We Have To Do Is Get Serious About Keeping Score


~ BL ~ Be Likeable

~ STTASAL ~ See Things Through A Single Analytical Lens

~ CAESTI-S/C/C/C ~ Craft An Explanatory Story That Is – Simple / Clear / Conclusive / Compelling

~ DNDY ~ Do Not Doubt Yourself

~ DNAM ~ Do Not Acknowledge Mistakes

~ A-N-E-S-‘IDK’ ~ And – Never – Ever – Say – “I Don’t Know”


~ WAAIP ~ We Are Awash In Predictions

~ TEWWMATOTTBMLCTTWR ~ The Experts Who Were More Accurate Than Others Tended To Be Much Less Confident That They Were Right

~ B-EWATTPFAR ~ But – Experts Who Agree That Their Predictions Failed Are Rare

~ ‘IWAR’ ~ “I Was Almost Right”

~ NMHCWA-NMHSOT-TBWUTMPIFATWIFU ~ No Matter How Clever We Are – No Matter How Sophisticated Our Thinking – The Brain We Use To Make Predictions Is Flawed And The World Is Fundamentally Unpredictable

~ MOWWWLTPWFBU ~ Much Of What We Would Like To Predict Will Forever Be Unpredictable

~ MBF ~ Monkey Bite Factor

~ WLITIA-BOBASA ~ We Live In The Information Age – But Our Brains Are Stone Age

~ WRLB ~ We Really Like Babies

~ WHAHTWR ~ We Have A Hard Time With Randomness

~ GF ~ Gambler’s Fallacy

~ PAPDTSRATEFAOWTOAAI ~ People Are Particularly Disinclined To See Randomness As The Explanation For An Outcome When Their Own Actions Are Involved

~ IOC ~ Illusion Of Control

~ CB ~ Confirmation Bias

~ AC-AR ~ Always Confident – Always Right

~ GT-IVMADTCSE ~ Group Think – Is Very Much A Disease That Can Strike Experts

~ CC ~ Confidence Convinces

~ GT ~ Group Think

~ IIA&I ~ It Is Automatic And Instantaneous

~ AIIIP-CI ~ Accuracy Isn’t Imperative In Politics – Certainty Is

~ Big Calls That Go Bad Should Damage The Reputations Of Those Who Make Them – They Seldom Do

~ BS ~ Breezy Speculation

~ U-U-A-U ~ Unpredictable – Unknowable – And – Uncontrollable

~ ALHIIO ~ A Little Humility Is In Order