DAVID FREEDMAN ~ WRONG ~ 2010

~ AE-R-C-A-S-CAPARITRWGTA ~ An Expert’s – Reputation – Credentials – And – Style – Can All Play A Role In The Reception We Give The Advice

~ WLATSS-WLFT-ABC-E-ES-GFIAD ~ We Love Advice That Seems Simple – We Look For The – ABCs – Essentials – Executive Summaries – Guides For Idiots And Dummies

~ CWSTLFIEA:CC/DF/U/U/P/DC/S/N/RF ~ Characteristics We Seem To Look For In Expert Advice: Clear-Cut / Doubt-Free / Universal / Upbeat / Actionable / Palatable / Dramatic Claims / Stories / Numbers / Retroactive Fixes

~ WHTBCCLIACW-SWWWEATAIQTBS? ~ We Happen To Be Complex Creatures Living In A Complex World – So Why Would We Expect Answers To Any Interesting Questions To Be Simple?

~ TGEO-G/TW/C/C-ILAM ~ The General Effectiveness Of – Groups / Team-Work / Collaboration / Consensus – Is Largely A Myth

~ C-FFBRW-TOTBALAGADASTPADOEWAHI-ATTBSOTWWTTT ~ Crowds – Far From Being Reliably Wise – Turn Out To Be At Least As Good At Discouraging And Suppressing The Production And Dissemination Of Excellent Work As Highlighting It – And Tend To Bring Some Of The Worst Work To The Top

~ TEOTGIET-A/LI-WPTROWEOAITI ~ The Effect Of The Group Is Essentially To – Amplify / Lock In – Whatever Proclivity Toward Rightness Or Wrongness Exists On Average In The Individuals

~ PIGTSNTTAHAIWOTO ~ People In Groups Tend Simply Not To Try As Hard As Individuals Working On Their Own

~ PIGSMOTTLTO-RTTOTO-NARITGADP-B-IG-TNTITT-OT-OD-OP-G-ISWETIIESMA ~ People In Groups Spend Most Of Their Time Listening To Others – Rather Than Thinking On Their Own – Not All Research Indicates That Groups Always Degrade Performance – But – In General – The Notion That Individuals Tend To – OutThink – OutDecide – OutPerform – Groups – Is So Well Established That It Isn’t Even Studied Much Anymore

~ OAMOIF-EHCCP-ARTVOTGAI ~ Once A Majority Opinion Is Formed – Even Highly Competent, Confident People – Are Reluctant To Voice Opinions That Go Against It

~ MF:S/P/FE/O-S-F-A/ITWTZ/NBNR ~ Management Fads: Simple / Prescriptive / Falsely Encouraging / One-Size-Fits-All / In Tune With The Zeitgeist / Novel But Not Radical

~ ANOCHUACIHIRBIRMAB-TLOOTHGF-BEHTG-IALO ~ Any Number Of Companies Held Up As Corporate Idols – Have In Retrospect Been Iffy Role Models At Best – The List Of Organizations That Have Gone From – Business-Expert Hero To Goat – Is A Long One

~ TCOLTEA:S/U/D/SBOASS(OMSOLCO)/IG/PBPOOTSTBFIA/GTPAFOOAPRFOC ~ Typical Characteristics Of Less Trustworthy Expert Advice: Simplistic / Universal / Definitive / Supported By Only A Single Study (Or Many Small Or Less Careful Ones) / It’s Groundbreaking / Pushed By People Or Organizations That Stand To Benefit From Its Acceptance / Geared Toward Preventing A Future Occurrence Of A Prominent Recent Failure Or Crisis

~ SCOMTEA:DTTOA/IANF/HOQS/CARE/PSCFTR/PP/I-C-B-C ~ Some Characteristics Of More Trustworthy Expert Advice: Doesn’t Trip The Other Alarms / It’ A Negative Finding / Heavy On Qualifying Statements / Candid About Refutational Evidence / Provides Some Context For The Research / Provides Perspective / Includes – Candid – Blunt – Comments

DAVID FREEDMAN ~ WHY EXPERTS KEEP FAILING US ~ WRONG

~ B&C ~ Bias And Corruption

~ IT ~ Irrational Thinking

~ PTTA ~ Pandering To The Audience

~ I ~ Ineptitude

~ LOO ~ Lack Of Oversight

~ A-EANMCOMTRD-TJMLTBVQAI ~ Automaticity – Experts Aren’t Necessarily More Capable Of Making The Right Decision – They’re Just More Likely To Be Very Quick About It

~ MWDM ~ Measuring What Doesn’t Matter

~ M ~ Mismeasuring

~ STWM ~ Studying The Wrong Mammal

~ TOID ~ Tossing Out Inconvenient Data

~ MTG ~ Moving The Goalposts

~ BC ~ Being Confounded

~ JTN ~ Juggling The Numbers

~ BPTGIW ~ Being Paid To Get It Wrong