~ IIOTTB-CDOA-B-WUC-‘CS’-AAT-PWT-TBIA ~ It Is One Thing To Be – Cosmetically Defiant Of Authority – By – Wearing Unconventional Clothes – “Cheap Signalling” – And Another To – Prove Willingness To – Translate Belief Into Action

~ THMSFTAAICICWH:TIOU-IAWTIMC(OR)TTR;TRD-HWCAMOATF;TOOFI-A-THOAALP ~ The Human Mind Suffers From Three Ailments As It Comes Into Contact With History: The Illusion Of Understanding – In A World That Is More Complicated (Or Random) Than They Realize; The Retrospective Distortion – How We Can Assess Matters Only After The Fact; The Overvaluation Of Factual Information – And – The Handicap Of Authoritative And Learned People

~ P-TDTCRICS ~ Platonicty – The Desire To Cut Reality Into Crisp Shapes

~ TPF-IWORORCTA-B-WDNKI ~ The Platonic Fold – Is Where Our Representation Of Reality Ceases To Apply – But – We Do Not Know It

~ IS-W-DRB ~ People In Suits – Who – Don’t Read Books

~ T:AF-TAE;TR-NTN ~ Today: A Few – Take Almost Everything; The Rest – Next To Nothing

TBSP:HCWKTF-GKOTP-O-MG-HCWFOPOT(I)UBOT(F)K-SHWITP-U-W-IUNLD-A-WWHLFTPTOTBAB-IOF-AW-VM ~ The Black Swan Problem: How Can We Know The Future – Given Knowledge Of The Past – Or – More Generally – How Can We Figure Out Properties Of The (Infinite) Unknown Based On The (Finite) Known – Something Has Worked In The Past – Until – Well – It Unexpectedly No Longer Does – And – What We Have Learned From The Past Turns Out To Be At Best – Irrelevant Or False – At Worse – Viciously Misleading

~ M-ANOOTP-AS-DOROTF-ITOAOC-OO-ITUTBS ~ Mistaking – A Naive Observation Of The Past – As Something – Definitive Or Representative Of The Future – Is The One And Only Cause – Of Our – Inability To Understand The Black Swan

~ WBMP-TGTB;WTAH-WPTC ~ When Bankers Make Profits – They Get The Benefits; When They Are Hurt – We Pay The Costs

~ ACTSB ~ Avoid Crossing The Street Blindfolded

~ CS! ~ Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

~ T-ITATKAS-FOSTA-O-FTTP-IAQDAOHN-T-D-S-OOR-OMOT-OI-DOTCIWTMIP-T-‘D’-OT-OOTE ~ The – Inability To Automatically Transfer Knowledge And Sophistication – From One Situation To Another – Or – From Theory To Practice – Is A Quite Disturbing Attribute Of Human Nature – The – Domain-Specificity – Of Our Reactions – Our Mode Of Thinking – Our Intuitions – Depend On The Context In Which The Matter Is Presented – The – “Domain” – Of The – Object Or The Event

~ AMM-NE-WHANTTLFITCOSAOVOTW-TIAAETF ~ A Mental Mechanism – Naive Empiricism – We Have A Natural Tendency To Look For Instance That Confirm Our Story And Our Vision Of The World – These Instances Are Always Easy To Find

~ MWTTCYTTSIUTS-BPOIWIPH-NTWIWAWOT-O-W-TNMATIASCOSOTTHUNOEMT ~ Mathematicians Will Try To Convince You That Their Science Is Useful To Society – By Pointing Out Instances Where It Proved Helpful – Not Those Where It Was A Waste Of Time – Or – Worse – Those Numerous Mathematical Applications That Inflicted A Severe Cost On Society Owing To The Highly Unempirical Nature Of Elegant Mathematical Theories

~ OYMIIW-ACVOTW-YWTTOCIPYTBR-P-TMIYH-TMJYWFIYV ~ Once Your Mind Is Inhabited With – A Certain View Of The World – You Will Tend To Only Consider Instances Proving You To Be Right – Paradoxically – The More Information You Have – The More Justified You Will Feel In Your Views

~ IWTBR ~ Information Wants To Be Reduced

~ U-A-TSPO-S-ITGTTT-NT-GYAFOOOMYFB ~ Unlike – Art – The Stated Purpose Of – Science – Is To Get To The Truth – Not To – Give You A Feeling Of Organization Or Make You Feel Better

~ WTTUKAT ~ We Tend To Use Knowledge As Therapy

~ WWTBTS-A-TINWWT-ETWSCMTWTSPCDOR ~ We Want To Be Told Stories – And – There Is Nothing Wrong With That – Except That We Should Check More Thoroughly Whether The Story Provides Consequential Distortions Of Reality

~ WDWA-BS-J-TWO ~ We Do Worry About – Black Swans – Just – The Wrong Ones

~ TWTA-TIO-TNF-ITF-EOS-EOH-A-CKOT ~ The Way To Avoid – The Ills Of – The Narrative Fallacy – Is To Favor – Experimentation Over Storytelling – Experience Over History – And – Clinical Knowledge Over Theories

~ LITAOH ~ Living In The Antechamber Of Hope

~ WASA-HIOP ~ We Are Social Animals – Hell Is Other People

~ LP-API-INTN ~ Linear Progression – A Platonic Idea – Is Not The Norm

~ BSDMOHH ~ Black Swans Dominate Much Of Human History

~ OOTAOABSIAAIC-EPON ~ One Of The Attributes Of A Black Swan Is An Asymmetry In Consequences – Either Positive Or Negative

~ BOBU ~ Bleed Or Blow Up

~ SE-PECTTNO-H ~ Silent Evidence – Pervades Everything Connected To The Notion Of – History

~ TUSAAWCT-WNTSTTPIF ~ To Understand Successes And Analyze What Caused Them – We Need To Study The Traits Present In Failures

~ WSTOAVC-N-TIALOO-YTUCCB-N-GA-MM ~ We See The Obvious And Visible Consequences – Not – The Invisible And Less Obvious Ones – Yet These Unseen Consequences Can Be – Nay – Generally Are – More Meaningful

~ TGOAMOSE:TIOS ~ The Gravest Of All Manifestations Of Silent Evidence: The Illusion Of Stability

~ TRPA:DNCO-FTVPOTWG-BF-ATWSITC ~ The Reference Point Argument: Do Not Compute Odds – From The Vantage Point Of The Winning Gambler – But From – All Those Who Started In The Cohort

~ OOS-OOM-WH-AN-EP-SOTA ~ Out Of Sight – Out Of Mind – We Harbor – A Natural – Even Physical – Scorn Of The Abstract

~ TLF:TAOTUWFIRLHLCTTSOWEIEAG ~ The Ludic Fallacy: The Attributes Of The Uncertainty We Face In Real Life Have Little Connection To The Sterilized Ones We Encounter In Exams And Games

~ TCOS-IP ~ The Club Of Single-Idea People

~ WN-C-RAUAA-WRWHH-IWCHH ~ We Need – Context – Randomness And Uncertainty Are Abstractions – We Respect What Has Happened – Ignoring What Could Have Happened

~ TYTSTDB-TSATE-P-N-N-ITRTOOUOTW ~ Train Yourself To Spot The Difference Between – The Sensational And The Empirical – Prediction – Not – Narration – Is The Real Test Of Our Understanding Of The World

~ TLTROTBS-THIWBFUTP-S ~ The Larger The Role Of The Black Swan – The Harder It Will Be For Us To Predict – Sorry

~ TES ~ The Empty Suit

~ YCIS-D-LOKADATQOYKCT-TSPTMYKLAMYSWYK ~ You Cannot Ignore Self-Delusion – Lack Of Knowledge And Delusion About The Quality Of Your Knowledge Come Together – The Same Process That Makes You Know Less Also Makes You Satisfied With Your Knowledge

~ T-‘AR’-D ~ The – “Almost Right” – Defense

~ T-TNOSOUOTPI ~ Tunnelling – The Neglect Of Sources Of Uncertainty Outside The Plan Itself

~ DCARIII(OA)FFD ~ Don’t Cross A River If It Is (On Average) Four Feet Deep

~ TOKEMTBBI ~ They Only Knew Enough Math To Be Blinded By It

~ TPCI ~ The Personal Crisis Industry

~ TWIOAAFU ~ The World Is Opaque And Appearances Fool Us

~ TM-WTTHIAOTAEOATBEWMT-TMWGIT ~ The More – We Try To Turn History Into Anything Other Than An Enumeration Of Accounts To Be Enjoyed With Minimal Theorizing – The More We Get Into Trouble

~ BAOTNEOMN ~ Be Aware Of The Numbing Effect Of Magic Numbers

~ IYHA-‘P’E-UTW-E-O-ND-DNAWH;JIH-O-TTPARDHS ~ If You Hear A – “Prominent” Economist – Using The World – Equilibrium – Or – Normal Distribution – Do Not Argue With Him; Just Ignore Him – Or – Try To Put A Rat Down His Shirt

~ WCTT-BS-I-GS-STS-RTSE ~ We Can Turn These – Black Swans – Into – Gray Swans – So To Speak – Reducing Their Surprise Effect

~ IPM-NTTT-EIDOS ~ I Promised Myself – Never To Teach Trash – Even If Dying Of Starvation

~ ASO ~ Academically Stamped Obscurantism

~ PWWAPIODCBDTS ~ People Who Worry About Pennies Instead Of Dollars Can Be Dangerous To Society

~ IIMDTBALIAGUSUY ~ It Is More Difficult To Be A Loser In A Game You Set Up Yourself

~ RTYAABS ~ Remember That You Are A Black Swan

~ A-TYFRMB ~ And – Thank You For Reading My Book

~ TREF ~ The Rare-Event Fallacy

~ TCSOCBTROOHFFTDOTIWCSA ~ This Conclusion Set Off Calls By The Religious Orders Of High Finance For The Destruction Of The Infidel Who Committed Such Apostasy

~ IDNMHFSS-IFITCTB ~ It Does Not Matter How Frequently Something Succeeds – If Failure Is Too Costly To Bear

~ YCDCUTWOE-ANCCYSTINSTAACE ~ You Can Disguise Charlatanism Under The Weight Of Equations – And Nobody Can Catch You Since There Is No Such Thing As A Controlled Experiment

~ TPO-‘FE’-CAWMDOP ~ The Practice Of – “Financial Engineering” – Came Along With Massive Doses Of Pseudoscience

~ LAEIOBSABOUALOR ~ Lumping All Economics In One Basket Shows A Bit Of Unfairness And Lack Of Rigor

~ TAOEHTUARE ~ The Attitude Of Epic Heroism That Usually Accompanies Rapid Enrichment

~ ATTDNPASOCUWIWBCW-WBTC ~ A Theory That Does Not Present A Set Of Conditions Under Which It Would Be Considered Wrong – Would Be Termed Charlatanism

~ AOSIOIWNPTIHTE-TWACITE ~ An Open Society Is One In Which No Permanent Truth Is Held To Exist – This Would Allow Counter-Ideas To Emerge

~ TMDWH-TMLWATDII ~ The More Data We Have – The More Likely We Are To Drown In It

~ ASKOPCLTWRTNKAA ~ A Small Knowledge Of Probability Can Lead To Worse Results Than No Knowledge At All

~ AOSOTW-IINFTWFTVC-A-OSTS-AOTS-WISAMPOTD ~ As One Sees Only The Winners – It Is Natural For Those Who Failed To Vanish Completely – Accordingly – One Sees The Survivors – And Only The Survivors – Which Imparts Such A Mistaken Perception Of The Odds

~ TMMND ~ Too Many Millionaires Next Door

~ TVOCITSCTAOPGRTTB-B-TINNT-IA-ESGAAM(OI)A ~ The Virtue Of Capitalism Is That Society Can Take Advantage Of People’s Greed Rather Than Their Benevolence – But – There Is No Need To – In Addition – Extol Such Greed As A Moral (Or Intellectual) Accomplishment

~ YRRDNLR ~ Yet Real Randomness Does Not Look Random

~ TMBGIITFTNTP ~ There May Be Great Information In The Fact That Nothing Took Place

~ BTPB ~ Beware The Philosopher Bureaucrat

~ OCMADWE ~ One Cannot Make A Decision Without Emotion

~ WFE(LB)-TFAE(N) ~ We Feel Emotions (Limbic Brain) – Then Find An Explanation (Neocortex)

~ SP-‘M’-R-PITAPFI ~ Somehow People – “Measure” – Risks – Particularly If They Are Paid For It

~ NMPIE-NEANP-IWNITWOTFM ~ Nobel Memorial Prize In Economics – Not Even A Nobel Prize – It Was Never In The Will Of The Famous Man

~ PCSAS-SIG-B-ISAD ~ People Confuse Science And Scientists – Science Is Great – But – Individual Scientists Are Dangerous