PHILIP TETLOCK + DAN GARDNER ~ SUPERFORECASTING ~ 2015

~ ODTRITFWAEOG ~ Our Desire To Reach Into The Future Will Always Exceed Our Grasp

~ OS ~ Optimistic Skeptic

~ SDTTI-OM-C-C-A-AA-SC-IADF ~ Superforecasting – Demands Thinking That Is – Open-Minded – Careful – Curious – And – Above All – Self-Critical – It Also Demands Focus

~ WWNTBCBFASJITF-SITWGSAB ~ We Will Need To Blend Computer-Based Forecasting And Subjective Judgment In The Future – So It’s Time We Got Serious About Both

~ CCS ~ Cargo Cult Science

~ WYSIATI ~ What You See Is All There Is

~ TKID-DTCBR(ANRTZ)-BBEFBS-SSCRATGOHN ~ The Key Is Doubt – Doubt That Can Be Reduced (Although Never To Zero) – By Better Evidence From Better Studies – Such Scientific Caution Runs Against The Grain Of Human Nature

~ ONIITGOTTFPEAHGSEWCIR ~ Our Natural Inclination Is To Grab On To The First Plausible Explanation And Happily Gather Supportive Evidence Without Checking Its Reliability

~ PR-WTOE-PCEPDITMIVNAID-ISDFAP-ACESII ~ Pattern Recognition – With Training Or Experience – People Can Encode Patterns Deep In Their Memories In Vast Number And Intricate Detail – If Something Doesn’t Fit A Pattern – A Competent Expert Senses It Immediately

~ EPJ ~ Expert Political Judgement

~ HWAWDOWYAA-ATJOMPWKNPALON ~ How Well Aggregation Works Depends On What You Are Aggregating – Aggregating The Judgments Of Many People Who Know Nothing Produces A Lot Of Nothing

~ SOOARGADVORIAS ~ Stepping Outside Ourselves And Really Getting A Different View Of Reality Is A Struggle

~ MTILISAL-IVP-TCMIHTFOWTCUTSAWTL ~ Most Things In Life Involve Skill And Luck – In Varying Proportions – That Complexity Makes It Hard To Figure Out What To Chalk Up To Skill And What To Luck

~ MIABHN ~ Meaning Is A Basic Human Need

~ BP-PCBAI-ACORLCTAANITUTSB ~ Belief Perseverance – People Can Be Astonishingly Intransigent – And Capable Of Rationalizing Like Crazy To Avoid Acknowledging New Information That Upsets Their Settled Beliefs

~ SNOUMOTOF-TUISI ~ Superforecasters Not Only Update More Often Than Other Forecasters – They Update In Smaller Increments

~ BTINMF-JBPWLOC ~ But There Is No Magical Formula – Just Broad Principles With Lots Of Caveats

~ BNAPIS-INTBIP-YNTKWMTLOF-AWBPRAB ~ But Not All Practice Improves Skill – It Needs To Be Informed Practice – You Need To Know Which Mistakes To Look Out For – And Which Best Practices Really Are Best

~ TSANUSOTTITTDEETS ~ The Successful Are Not Usually So Open To The Idea That They Didn’t Entirely Earn Their Success

~ ‘PB’ ~ “Perpetual Beta”

~ SCLTATCUTHOMTPTS-SHOAHAI ~ Success Can Lead To Acclaim That Can Undermine The Habits Of Mind That Produced The Success – Such Hubris Often Afflicts Highly Accomplished Individuals

~ TAODPIAPWTIJ-BTKWID-CUPOPMOTS-IITDOTPTMTMW ~ The Aggregation Of Different Perspectives Is A Potent Way To Improve Judgment – But The Key Word Is Different – Combining Uniform Perspectives Only Produces More Of The Same – It Is The Diversity Of The Perspectives That Makes The Magic Work

~ THRFGJINSD-IIIH-IIARTRIPC-TSTCIACS-WICBDAA-ATHJMTBRWM ~ The Humility Required For Good Judgment Is Not Self-Doubt – It Is Intellectual Humility – It Is A Recognition That Reality Is Profoundly Complex – That Seeing Things Clearly Is A Constant Struggle – When It Can Be Done At All – And That Human Judgment Must Therefore Be Riddled With Mistakes

~ BTCSSIE-ATFOKIS ~ But The Continuous Self-Scrutiny Is Exhausting – And The Feeling Of Knowing Is Seductive

~ KWWDKIBTTWKWWD ~ Knowing What We Don’t Know Is Better Than Thinking We Know What We Don’t

~ OEOTFADFOMMOHTWW-AEEIAOTLAITM ~ Our Expectations Of The Future Are Derived From Our Mental Models Of How The World Works – And Every Event Is An Opportunity To Learn And Improve Those Models

~ VEAIFANH-FTCNBPW ~ Vague Expectations About Indefinite Futures Are Not Helpful – Fuzzy Thinking Can Never Be Proven Wrong

~ AWHTDIGSAKS ~ All We Have To Do Is Get Serious About Keeping Score

PHILIP TETLOCK ~ SIX BASIC WAYS IN WHICH FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS DIFFER – FOXES WERE MORE: ~ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT ~ 2005

~ SODATEAP ~ Skeptical Of Deductive Approaches To Explanation And Prediction

~ DTQTABNDE ~ Disposed To Qualify Tempting Analogies By Noting Disconfirming Evidence

~ RTMEPOTSTSTFWPFLGUBDM ~ Reluctant To Make Extreme Predictions Of The Sort That Start To Flow When Positive Feedback Loops Go Unchecked By Dampening Mechanisms

~ WAHBCUTJTITPTH ~ Worried About Hindsight Bias Causing Us To Judge Those In The Past Too Harshly

~ PTA-D-I-VOL ~ Prone To A – Detached – Ironic – View Of Life

~ MTWTCAOFIITSOP-SATROHAOTRODM ~ Motivated To Weave Together Conflicting Arguments On Foundational Issues In The Study Of Politics – Such As The Role Of Human Agency Or The Rationality Of Decision Making

PHILIP TETLOCK ~ ISAIAH BERLIN ~ FOXES AND HEDGEHOGS ~ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT ~ 2005

~ ‘TFKMTBTHKOBT’ ~ “The Fox Knows Many Things But The Hedgehog Knows One Big Thing”

~ H-TW-‘KOBT’-AETEROTOBTIND-DBIWTW-‘DNGI’-A-ECCTTAAPPF-ALITLT ~ Hedgehogs – Thinkers Who – “Know One Big Thing” – Aggressively Extend The Explanatory Reach Of That One Big Thing Into New Domains – Display Bristly Impatience With Those Who – “Do Not Get It” – And – Express Considerable Confidence That They Are Already Pretty Proficient Forecasters – At Least In The Long Term

~ F-TW-‘KMST'(TOTT)-ASOGS-SEAPNADEBRAEIF-‘AH’-TRSTDSOI-A-ARDATOFP ~ Foxes – Thinkers Who – “Know Many Small Things” (Tricks Of Their Trade) – Are Skeptical Of Grand Schemes – See Explanation And Prediction Not As Deductive Exercises But Rather As Exercise In Flexible – “Ad Hocery” – That Require Stitching Together Diverse Sources Of Information – And – Are Rather Diffident About Their Own Forecasting Prowess